Posts made by JDOW

Good luck to both of you!

@axis-dominion said in AD (L+28) vs FB (X +10) #4 BM:

feels like luck is against me… i’ve been getting a lot of misses with my defenders and you up and get 3 hits in bry lmao

Overall, Germans hit 3/8 total @2 this turn. Nothing extraordinary to me.
Or was Bryansk particularly important?

@GovZ said in L24 bm4 axis-dom (axis) vs farmboy (allies+17) #3:

Games like this are why I prefer low luck.

Games like this is why I prefer no low luck.
Gamblers ans those who watch the gambles need being reminded from time to time that aggressive play can lead to quick game losses:-)

@axis-dominion game on, we await #4.
play a safe opener this time and show if you can beat the champ the „boring“ way or whether good dice early on are required to stand a chance vs Farmboy‘s deadly Allies.

Amazing game, gratz AD!
The key takeaway seems to be that if the Germans cause enough havoc, the Axis can still succeed, even without much support from the Luftwaffe for a while.

There has to be a better way to counter JDOW4 though. I can’t believe J4 is that dominant.

Farmboy, I know I’m late to the party, but I wanted to congratulate on your back-to-back league championship! What an incredible achievement to defeat Adam’s Axis in the final.

I have to say, after the G1 110 disaster, it seemed like the Allies’ advantage vanished by turn 8 or 9. At that point, I would’ve bet on the Axis. The early Europe play felt a bit sluggish - Egypt was temporarily abandoned, and the first major U.S. landing was to liberate Egypt instead of securing a beachhead. Despite delays, Germany managed to break through Bryansk, alongside with some very expensive Russian blockers that weakened their position.

On the Pacific side, Japan had favorable early dice and took India with relative ease, even with an early British Indian Ocean fleet. Japan’s dominance at sea was clear, though the Chinese-Russian cooperation posed a thorn in their plans. However, with India already taken, that threat seemed manageable in my opinion.

Your consistent, error-free play was impressive. Though cautious at times, it was precise, and you managed to exploit Germany’s weakness in the skies until they eventually collapsed. The subtlety in your strategy was remarkable. I especially liked how you kept ANZAC aggressive, even though Japan was just one victory city away. While not all the island trades seemed efficient, you kept Japan occupied, preventing them from launching a decisive attack on Sydney or Hawaii.

One question, though, regarding the Russian strafe-stunt back to Moscow - did you miscalculate earlier? It seemed like you could have just stacked Bryansk, and the risk of the strafe felt unnecessary to me.

Again, congratulations on a very well-played game! Certainly a game for the books to study on Allies play against Axis giants!

“You have several advantages slowing down the Axis”
Must read “Allies” of course

@jkeller said in L24 BM4 jkeller(Axis) vs axis-dominion(Allies+20):

Going for Egypt with med play in this version is so difficult to pull off withGermany having to make plane buys, planes being out of position, Italy needing some good dice, etc. […]

I don’t think there’s an easy way for the Axis to take Egypt by force early on if the Allies play correctly, whether in Vanilla or BM. Losing Egypt early as the Allies typically happens due to one of three reasons:

1. General misplays or dice disasters by the Allies.
2. The Allies deliberately gave up Egypt, at least partially, to make significant gains elsewhere.
3. The Axis heavily overcommitted and paid a steep price, such as a risky and costly German airstrike.

If the Allies play cautiously and anticipate potential Axis moves, they should be able to hold Egypt early. However, this often comes at the cost of delaying other priorities such as a stronghold in 110 for example.

@jkeller said in L24 BM4 jkeller(Axis) vs axis-dominion(Allies+20):

I am pretty disgusted with how this game went last round of moves so I will probably just forfeit it and I would love to start a new one with you after that but if you don’t mind since I have limited time right now I will focus on advancing my other ongoing games first so it might be a couple weeks. In the meantime I will see if I have the will to play this one out.

I believe it’s premature to give up at this point. I’ve heard you’re a strong chess player. In chess terms, I’d say you’re perhaps a pawn down with not much compensation, around -0.8 to -1.2, but not a piece down or more. Against Stockfish, it might look grim, but against any human opponent and factoring in luck, there’s still a game left for the Axis.

You have several advantages slowing down the Axis, such as a strong Italian ground force in Africa that will be difficult to eliminate and a healthy Italian fleet that will require significant effort to sink. Additionally, you have a fierce defense in Caro. Japan may appear worse off than it is; it can retake islands, and the Allies have almost no loaded transports.

However, Japan is overstretched. Against 17 or 18 + 2 Siberian Russians, it’s better not to commit to going north. Instead, maintain a stalemate at Manchuria and focus your efforts on keeping India and China small, along with enough troops for island warfare.

Throw everything into breaking through to Volgo and the Caucasus as soon as possible. Even if this might risk allowing the Russians a potentially game-winning attack (I didn’t run numbers), but if they succeed, you can safely resign. If the dice roll in your favor, you’re back in the game. If the Russians hesitate, you can gain some ground.

I apologize for offering unsolicited advice. AD and I are friends, and he was disappointed you wanted to resign, so I took another look. Knowing AD, he prefers competitive positions, so his disappointment suggests he wouldn’t resign as the Axis.

@Me1945

Scramble 111 please:-)

@crockett36 said in Video interviews of league players by Crockett36:

https://youtu.be/97ThP4NWJqo?si=-Zuz81qo0QHxdAYc

Interview with JDOW. Like no other interview so far, we get into the nuts and bolts of objectives for each of the big nations, benchmarks for measuring success and detailed analysis of the pros and cons of blockers.

Thanks for having me and for being such a nice host, It was truly delightful conversing with you.

@Myygames My view on LL is just an opinion and personal preference. There is nothing wrong at all about LL, it’s just not for me. Coming from a semi-pro poker background, I find the element of chance to be an essential ingredient, adding an extra layer of complexity that fascinates me.

@gamerman01 said in League General Discussion Thread:
Who’s interviewing next?

I vote for AD :)

Thanks a lot!

@axis-dominion said in Post League Game Results Here:

long game as is typical with our matches… big fireworks in the end but results were ultimately not in allied favor

https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/40655/l24-bm4-adam514-axis-vs-axis-dominion-allies-21

Congratulations to Adam for winning the most epic battle I have ever witnessed in a top-tier competition encounter.

I highly recommend that everyone download the game’s history and play through it themselves.

Question 3 obviously refers to the final attack on Berlin.

Congratulations to both of you for engaging in the most epic battle I have ever witnessed in a top-tier competition encounter.
Congratz to Adam for pulling it through as long as it took the Axis to slowly but steadily climb the mountain until reaching the summit. Very well played!

It was truly a roller coaster ride in terms of determining who was in the lead.

Initially, I thought the Allies were doomed after the incredible dice rolls in G1 and G2. Although there was a hiccup in Yunnan, everything else seemed to be going smoothly for the Axis.

Then, I was astonished by how quickly the Allies managed to establish a foothold in Europe, and I found myself favoring their position.

But the tide turned again, and once Moscow fell, it was clear that the Axis had the upper hand (following the rule of thumb: when both India and Moscow fall without significant concessions, the Axis typically emerges victorious). Although the Germans had to make concessions to capture Moscow, the possibility of retaking France made it evident that the Axis were pulling ahead.

Yet, the momentum shifted once more, and it became apparent that Japan couldn’t swiftly secure a VC victory. At this point, I found myself favoring the Allied position again.

However, the situation took a turn for the worse for the Allies, and the Axis gained complete control once more, rapidly deteriorating the Allied position. I was not really sure what happened here.

The situation became so dire for the Axis that not even a +263 battle at WGR (discounting some negative TUX exchanges before the UK battle) could turn the tide. Despite the Germans losing around 28 planes, the Axis were still prevailing.

One aspect I believe the Allies could have handled differently was adopting a more aggressive stance in the Pacific. They focused solely on fortifying Hawaii and Sydney, neglecting to contest the islands or send planes to support China. While I understand this is easier said than done, I think the Allies became too complacent and should have taken more risks while preventing a Japanese VC rush, thereby allowing US to build more transports, recapture islands, and wreck havoc in China with US air strikes. Additionally, the Allies retained UK planes in China for too long, where they failed to have the desired impact and were disconnected from their ground units.

It appears that there was a critical juncture in the game where the Allies had to decide whether to permit Japan risky battles at Hawaii or Sydney, potentially leading to either victory or defeat depending on the outcome, or to endure a slow death, as they ultimately opted for in this particular game.

Furthermore, the Japanese expedition to Africa was foreseeable, and I believe the Allies could have taken more precautions. This excursion proved to be highly beneficial for the Axis, completely disrupting any momentum the Allies had in Europe.
Also I believe Allies MUST attack South America before allowing Japan to land there, regardless of whether the units will be missed elsewhere.

A few questions to @Adam514

1. I was intrigued by the maneuvering of your primary German force following the initial capture of Moscow. There seemed to be some oscillation, allowing the Russians to regain control temporarily before mounting a strong offensive to retake Moscow. Was this part of your strategic plan, or did you adapt your tactics midway, perhaps accepting a less-than-ideal outcome in the short term?

2. It appears to me that you could have mitigated even more damage in WGR by mobilizing all Italian forces before the +263 battle took place. Was there a deliberate decision to spare the Italians?

3. Hypothetically, if the Allies had achieved a top 10-20% dice outcome, with the US preserving a significant number of fighters and the UK minimizing losses during subsequent attacks, do you believe this could have tipped the balance in favor of the Axis? Considering that the Allies would have had two full turns to fortify Berlin against ~75 mech and 23 tanks rushing to recapture it. How apprehensive were you before that crucial battle?

@Karl7 Help me understand this:
Combat - ANZAC
Battle in New Guinea
ANZAC attack with 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 1 infantry
Japanese defend with 1 infantry
ANZAC roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 1 infantry in New Guinea, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1.17 expected hits
Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in New Guinea, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
1 infantry owned by the ANZAC lost in New Guinea
ANZAC roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 fighter in New Guinea, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0.83 expected hits
Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in New Guinea, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
1 artillery owned by the ANZAC lost in New Guinea
1 fighter owned by the ANZAC retreated
Japanese win with 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -7
Casualties for ANZAC: 1 artillery and 1 infantry

If this was a game deciding battle and taking NG was crucial for the survival of the US fleet, why didn’t you take the fighter down after round 2 and at least try to win a 1-1 arty vs inf battle?

@axis-dominion said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:

BTW I am 2-0 against the 2nd ranked player. Adam, however, has always been better than me I will admit that. I think he has beaten me at least 2 out of every 3 games, maybe more idk I’d have to look back.

Well, I made the mistake not playing you earlier when it was easy to beat you because you regularly blundered ;-)

Then, you stopped blundering and became super strong, and this is when I started playing you. I am still traumatized by our play-off match in which a surprise Neutral Crush entirely wrecked my (I believe at this point decent) position within a single turn :-(

So yes, getting your scalp at least once is a reason for me to return to the league^^

I am btw 2:1 vs Adam :D (Probably one win not recorded because it may have taken place in a Tournament and may not have counted for the league)

Congratz to the new league champion, Farmboy. Well played!

I follow the final closely, and it was an atypical game on the Eastern front.
The Germans were slightly behind schedule on the Eastern front and after turn 6 or so the German stack moved to Bryansk, allowing the Reds to launch an attack. The odds were clearly below 50% but in case of a success, the game may have been over in favor of the Allies.
The attack did not go the way the Allies wanted and left both armies crippled, including the Russian airforce which suffered from a 2/3 AA success by the German F.L.A.K.
I think one could argue that, from here, it was an uphill battle for the Allies.

The Axis headquarter remained calm and kept a cool head. Germans were not forcing any matters on the Eastern front but focused on stability, while establishing the Atlantic wall, including a massive German fleet protecting WGR and Germany. A fleet arms race developed in 112 and 110 while the Germans continued to stabilize on the Eastern front.

Japan was mostly uncontested in the Pacific. She let India grow to a massive size and never made a serious attempt to take India while focusing on dominating China and slowly eating up Eastern Russian territories, facilitated by Stalin’s order to send the entire Siberian army home. The Siberian army secured the survival of Moscow after the battle at Bryansk, but left Japan uncontested on the main land.

This way, the Axis achieved income parity, which, in many cases, leads to a slow death of the Allies, especially as Gamerman concluded the fall of Moscow was inevitable.

Thanks to both participants for the great show, what a pleasure this game was to watch!

Wow, that escalated quickly :)

I can totally understand why Gamerman went for it. A good outcome for Russia had game ending potential in favor of the Allies but a suboptimal one does not automatically lead to a losing position.

I stop writing here further thoughts because the situation on the board is too fresh. When the dust has settled I can share some further considerations, if desired.