A beginners guide to statistics in AA50.



  • @Corbeau Blanc

    So leave out the battles that are irrelevant to the overall game, and you can find the odds of your important battles succeeding.

    And starting around August 7 or 8, I would love to play a forum game to test this strat as well.

    Don’t try to use low luck to figure out strats for games with dice. And PLEASE stop trying to say we are wrong by comparing low luck odds to dice odds. It’s like we are counting apples and then you say we are wrong because there are a different number of oranges.  😉



  • I’m not talking of low luck here so stop bring that up, i’m talking of your odds formula. Pin, any monkey can use triple A.  Multiplying each battle odds together to get an overall % is not hard either. Your overall % might be right mathematically but it does not means anything outside of the context of each individual battle even if you feel that number is right. Can you get that concept?

    You dodged every one sentence where i demonstrated how each battle was also a different variable in itself as well as the overall goal is a varibale that you absolutely ignore in your equation.

    Your formula yield a number 0.x but that number means nothing. There is simply 2 ( or more ) variables you did not assign any value to:

    Overall = ?
    BattleX value =
    BattleY value =
    etc for each additional value.

    Butcher at least understood my point and answered to leave battles that have a different value outside of the equation. So then, what’s the point of even using that formula in the first place. It just serve to prove it’s useless.

    Determine a value to your battles and your battle plan first. Algebra is part of maths. I gave you an easy exemple how to do this when wanting to know how much Ipcs territory value your likely to hold in the end of a turn.

    I’ll repeat it since it is THAT point I want you to reply to:

    Declare the variables first, 3 battles, 9 different variables:

    BattleY = Y * Yodds
    BattleX = X * Xodds
    BattleZ = Z * Zodds

    Yodds = 0.30
    Xodds = 0.45
    zodds = 0.80

    Overall Goal = X+Y+Z = 9 ipc
    Y = 3 ipc
    X = 2 ipc
    Z = 4 ipc

    BattleY = 0.9 ipc
    BattleX = 0.9 ipc
    BattleZ = 3.2 ipc

    Your chances are to reach least 5ipc upon your 9ipc Overall Goal. Now you have an indication of something relevant  Still,  even tough the ‘‘correct maths’’ says 5 ipc odds, that we know our 5ipc is the right number and we beileive in our formula, that is maths and everyone here grasp the concept, it woul still be wrong.

    You must still take into account the fact thoses territory values are not fractionable ( yep, it means the perfect formula would have additional variables ). Insult as you want, cry to the gods if you beileive in them, you would still likely only gain 4 ipc.

    I am a software devlopper in real life and beileive me, when i see someone come around with a math formula and say: ‘‘look, just calculate it, you will get the same numbers as me’’ I know that guy just see his formula, his numbers and never figured there are other varibales to consider in any algorythm.

    The longest part for me when I code, is declaring each variables and assuring myself they mean something. If thoses are wrong, and even if they are right but unnessary, that your code is correct or not, it will feed itself on irrelevant data.

    So sir, that’s my end point. You can easily convince me your equation are right for dice odds in each individual battle, you can’t however convince me they are relevant on a global picture without determining more variables and adding them to your equation. IF you don’t understand that now, I see no point in pursuing the conversation.

    Set the game up, i never played pbf but why not. I’ll play your dices, NOs.  However, no bids and no techs.



  • Math isn’t some magical way to figure out everything you want to know, it is a tool. And like any other tool, you need to know how to use it correctly. So far, this is just a basics guide. We haven’t really gone in depth at all.

    I can’t personally attest to TripleA, since I have never used it.

    @Pin

    If you wish to keep the relevant info in this thread easily accesible, I suggest a new thread or making an article. Like I said before, you can use any of my posts here.



  • Butcher: just pressed on time atm, but i will clean it up and either post it in first post or make a new one in time 🙂



  • @ Corbeau Blanc

    I’m wondering if you are still interested in some test games. I sent you a PM a few days ago with a about it, so read that before you reply.


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