• Predictions, post em here.

    Edit: Seems like SARS to me. All doom and gloom and never really materialized. But part of me worries about this. The Spanish Flu was an avian one. This one could actually be bad.

  • It’s not yet decided. It all depends on wether the virus mutates to be able to “jump easier”, and how easy this then goes. That will decide how much time we wealthy nations have to develope a vacchine. Unfortunately, the A-type of the virus is the one that mutates rather frequently.

    We will see, just keep pigs and birds well seperated :)

  • Does “seperate but equal” apply to livestock? Do the pigs have to ride at the back of the truck to the slaughterhouse? Do the birds get all the good feed, and the pigs get whatever is left over?

  • I read at FoxNews, that if the bird flu mutates, the mortality rate will only be a couple people per 10,000. That seems a bit low to me. If you crunch the numbers, 1/10000 would only be 600,000 killed worldwide (assuming everyone came in contact with it). If the mortality rate was 1/100, then you would have 60,000,000 dead, which seems right for a bad pandemic. The SPanish flu of 1918 killed between 20-40 million and that was with a world population much less than 6 billion.

    "“Avian H5N1 looks like a 70 percent case fatality in humans. But this has never been true of any human strain,” Longini told WebMD last December. “There has never been any human influenza virus that has behaved that way in recorded or even unrecorded history. The case fatality of even highly virulent flu strains are a couple of deaths per 10,000 people.”


    Are those numbers way off?

  • that was like the whole SARS scare. only a 98% chance of survival if you contract the disease… :roll:

  • I wont give a damn unless I get it.

  • @marine36:

    I wont give a damn unless I get it.

    Such a selfless thing to say. Yyyyeeeeeeeeeeaaaahhh!!!

  • @stuka:


    I wont give a damn unless I get it.

    Such a selfless thing to say. Yyyyeeeeeeeeeeaaaahhh!!!

    LOL! I think Marine is actually a high-level official in charge of American relief efforts.

  • Darn! you found me out! :lol:

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