@UN:
@Octospire:
To UN Spacy, in my mind to be a great power means you shape the future of the planet in a large fashion. You have to be one of the top major powers and have the ability to at least match them either economically or militarily the French post 1950 could do neither to any of the other Great powers had WW2 not occured. WW1 was the beginning of the end for the French empire although most French people did not realise it, without the support of the British and eventually the Americans the French would of been pummeled into oblivion by a larger much more well trained fighting force in the form of the German army. Had the BEF (British Expeditionary Force) not come to the aid of the French immediately after the outbreak of hostilities the French line would of more than likely collapsed just like it did in 1940. It was the morale booster in the fact that British were coming to help that held the line together and once the British arrived it was the blood, sweat and tears of “Tommy” that delivered the French from their ultimate fate of German occupation.
Again, the OP goes by the assumption that World War I was short and not as bloody as it was in real life.
How long would the Empires of Germany, Britain, Russia, Austria-Hungrian and the Ottoman Turks survived had the war ended in late 1915 with small territorial
concessions and little political unrest?
Instead of fighting a bloody stalemate war for four years, the French only fights for a year or so, and also with relatively little losses compared to historical figures.
So again, French morale and military strength would not be as sapped as it would be in real life.
and once the British arrived it was the blood, sweat and tears of “Tommy” that delivered the French from their ultimate fate of German occupation.
That still does not change the fact that the French by far did the majority of the fighting on the Western Front. the only Allied country that exceeded France in casualties was Russia. It was British blood that saw the French will to fight get to its feet, but it was overwhelmingly French blood that was spilled defending France.
in my mind to be a great power means you shape the future of the planet in a large fashion.
Great Power
–noun
a nation that has exceptional military and economic strength, and consequently plays a major, often decisive, role in international affairs.
For the umpteenth time, if we assume that World War I ended much earlier with little loss of life for either side, we can assume that France survives as a great power.
I don’t see France any better than #6.
Its all speculation, but lets consider some indicators of the future potential of a nation; initial population size, economic size and growth rate.
As far as initial population size, during 1914 the UK was the largest power (due to its extensive empire), followed by France (due to its extensive empire), Russia, USA,and Japan (I’m ignoring the Austrian-Hungary and Ottoman empires here for reasons I’ll explain below). So France starts out good.
As far as economic size, I’m not sure which was bigger, UK or USA, but both were wealthier than the others. Following these closely were Germany (despite almost no empire), France (whose empire didn’t contribute much economically), and Japan. This is why Germany was able to fight the French and British and Russians for years. The relatively weak French economy is a reason why I consider it starting weak despite an extensive empire.
As far as growth rates, by far the growth was happening with Germany, Japan, and the USA. This is the key point - France was not economically large and it was not growing in 1914.
In 60 years, I think its certain that Japan would have overtaken it even without the horrific losses France suffered during WWI simply due to faster growth. The UK would still be a great power because of its very large headstart and because of a better growth rate than France. The USA easily surpasses France (it could be argued the USA was already stronger than France in 1914…though I would say probably not). Russia, due to its large and growing population could (as they did in WWII) simply win wars by brute strength…and did experience rapid growth after the Soviets consolidated their power (1930’s).
So would France be a great power today under the scenario by the original poster? Thats subjective; I actually think they would as the other powers would have had to consider the French response in anything they did. But France would be clearly lesser than 5 other powers…way back of the US/UK/and possibly Russia.
