Posts made by Pin

wrong map

Ok, last post

Im a major in financial math. Im prolly are sad person, but gf got to get up early tomorrow so im playing some Agricola while spectating you guys playing. Quit playing AA a year or so back myself, but still enjoy a good game, and i have followed youre game since the start

@Gamerman01:

Pin, if you are going to jump into a hot game and start posting, you need to clearly identify yourself.
JWW understandably thought you were me. 
That could cause some serious misunderstandings if you’re not careful.  Thanks.

Duely noted, i will not post anymore. Just tought it was obviouse as it says Pin on the left hand side of the post. And i just wanted to post some hard facts about statistics not commenting game. But just as i wrote that first post that sick outlier happened and i couldnt keep myself. Sorry for that, just ignore my post and go back to the game. A very interesting game you guys have going

@Gamerman01:

Calculating the odds of a certain number of AA missing is easy.  Take 5/6 to the Nth power.
5/6 to the 3rd (NWE) = 57.9%
5/6 to the 9th (USA’s) = 19.4%

Excel can do that.

And Pin, believe me, man, I have seen MANY dice results just as strange as Poland, there.  Many.  How about 5 of 6 aircraft shot down by AA on one turn?  How about 13 tanks all missing, and the 3 defending tanks all hitting?  I could go on.

If you regularly see 0.01% battles then i feel sorry for you or you got to be the luckiest man alive. By nature of the odds you have to roll 10 000 battles to see that happen. Ofcourse you will have seen it before, but far from in every game you play.

last post ill make about statistics, sorry but i love statistics

1st round 0,72 %
2nd round 0,87 %
total 0,01 %

This is the Poland battle odds for what happened, thats one sick sick outlier. You probably wont see such a skewed fight in most games you roll on this site

@JWW:

ukr twol

NWE aa fireRolls: 3@1; Total Hits: 13@1: (1, 6, 3)this must be like 70% there isn’t a one?

0.hit 57,87 %
1.hit 34,72 %
2.hit 6,94 %
3.hit 0,46 %

0.hit 19,38 %
1.hit 34,89 %
2.hit 27,91 %
3.hit 13,02 %
4.hit 3,91 %
5.hit 0,78 %
6.hit 0,10 %
7.hit 0,01 %
8.hit 0,00 %
9.hit 0,00 %
100,00 %

Just tought i should end the discussion. This is for 9 planes running against an AA. The probability is for that exact outcome. So for hitting 3 or less you have to add up 0.hit trough 3.hit etc.

On the map the IC in france should be downgraded to a minor IC when the Germans took it. Cant be upgraded again unless its France territory again.

Just a tip soul, when you do 2d6 the dices is sorted from smallest to largest, so if last AA hit you will allways loose highest dmg dice

Question about kamikaze.

When does it become available?
Thing is, US moves in with entire fleet and transport and land 1 inf on Iwo, all this happens at the same time, and the kamikaze option becomes available. Can the Jap declare an kamikaze attack on those warships that entered the zone along with the transport that first took Iwo, or do you have to wait til the next time an allied ship enteres a kamikaze zone?

My interpretation is that as everything happens simultaniously the Jap would be allowed to declare a kamikaze strike on that fleet, but after hearing both sides in a F2F game im not sure

1.  DarthMaximus
2.  BigRedOne
3.  cts17
4.  hobo
5.  Battlingmaxo
6.  U-505
7.  Amon Sûl
8.  Bigbadgoo
9.  souL
10.  SpiralArchitect
11.  axis_roll
12.  Bardoly
13.  Funcioneta
14. Yoshi
15. Pin
16.

i just have to go along, Allies have the upper hand / balanced game. I feel its closer to a bid for the axis then the allies, but at the moment i only play no bid games.

i will take you up on all the above mistergreen, but tech on would be fun (have 0 experience with aa42 though)

you won one of those due to me not haveing polished my allied skills func The players that have polished theyre allied skills have a clear edge on the best axis players in -41 now.

yup, but search up my other games in the league. The big picture stays the same. If you setup a sinking off jap trannie in z38 with a russian bmber buy T1, and setup of transfer of either russian armors or inf to India on T2 (depening on how the eastern front is after G1, if you can afford move 2inf to Persia, if not just make sure you have 2-3 tanks in Cau so you can move them if needed.)

US 1 move 2fgt + 1bmber to Aus, and the UK dd from z41 > z48 to prevent a hard hit on australia Jap 2. (IF jap have moved the cruiser there on T1 it might prevent an IC if everything else went perfect, not saying there aint a counter to this strat but it works almost everytime). US buys solely for Pacific.

This forces:
a) Jap to go all navy with its builds, meaning not enough ground forces enters mainland Asia, and US and Japan will keep each other at bay in z56 and z62. And the UK can sweep up mainland Asia, and might even be able to regain some grounds on the islands or in Africa without using atlantic fleet for it.

b) Jap ignores the US navy for too long, and its just a matter of time before the US will regain all the islands and kill of the remaining jap forces. (my tourney game this is the case)

Remember that when you LET Japan expand, it wont match US cash til T3, if you go for a contain strategy Japan will never get much higher then the US and it might even never get above the US income.

The key is to recognise the insane amount of IPC and bonuses in the pacific that either lets Japan become an uncontrollable monster or gimp them hard fast.

A kjf is very much possible, but you have to play for it from turn 1. Look on my running tourney game for how to do it. http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=15572.0

Japan is pretty easy to pacify in -41 setup if you play youre pieces as allies right. It took most of us almost a year of playing before being able to see the fine lines, but these days its closer to an allied advantage then axis one. Check out my current tournament game if you would like to see how to contain / kill off Japan in -41. http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=15572.0

As i typed out in the game thread i could have hold onto Cau for a lot longer, but didnt see the option until after i had rolled the first dices so had to adapt

This is the best one imo, just up the number of iteration the calc would do to get a more accurate number(highest number will take some time so give it time ). Also have easy options for land/sea/amphibious attacks, all rules/techs implemented and easy swap of units if you wanna calc how youre fleet fares in defence after first trying it in attack.

http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html

Egypt is indeed very decisive if you choose to take the shot, myself i have stopped adding it in my G1 moves, and it seems im doing a lot more consistent good after that adjustment. Simply trying to minimize the risk the dices put upon my overall strategy. You can make sure you will take it turn 2 and by that way keep a lot more units in Africa, and make it harder from the allies to remove the axis dominance over africa so early.

i live in Oslo so yeah we can do it on a cruise ship, would be really cool. Not a big fan of Revised and im away hunting 11th of october anyway. But a weekend on a cruise ship with AA50 would be cool, and its not like plane to copenhagen is expensive anymore (like 300NOK if bought in time).

where in denmark you guys from? if its an open danish championship you might get a visitor or two from norway

Butcher: just pressed on time atm, but i will clean it up and either post it in first post or make a new one in time

up for a pbf game anytime with dices.

And the maths still stands, you just dont get the concept behind probability, and thats what this thread is about, not low luck, wich is designed to partially remove probability. Example would be 2arms attacking a territory, with LL youre 100% sure to take it vs 1inf. With dices youre not 100% anymore, and you dont have to play many games to actually experience that.

In a turn in AA you have a goal you want to achive, by adding the probabilities of the different battles you are doing you get the odds for the goal to be achieved. If the goal is to get the 3rd NO with a nation, you multiply the different attacks related to that and you get the odds you will have the 3rd NO after the turn. All the others reading this thread is grasping this concept, so it might be about time you get ure head out of the sand and read it again til you actually understand the concept of probability.

first of all this guide to statistics was NOT written for low luck, only reason i used youre attacks in it (and reason i didnt refere to youre strat) was that i couldnt be arsed to come up with a G1, calculate all the odds for it under dices to succeed and then use those numbers.

All the maths in this thread is correct, thats simply HOW maths works, no way getting around that fact. Its like claiming the world is round etc.

• It consider all battles as equally important when they are not.

• It does not consider possibilities like straffing or special stuff

Maths are just a tool to show you how to calculate the odds of whatever problem you are pondering about the odds for. IF you want to know what the odds on a combat round is combined you now have the tools for that. You also have the tools neccesary to calculate youre “main” attack, and youre “strafe” or high variance attacks individually.

Multiplying it all together just give you an indication of how how many times ALL attacks that YOU DECIDE to add into the equation will succeed. So for youre strategy you will only succeed with all the attacks in 45 of 100 German turn 1s. Other solid openings have a success rate off 90%. Again, this all demand that you play the game oob with regular dices.

• It does not take in account the fact you CAN choose the order in which you do your battles.

It is irrelevant to calculate odds AFTER the battle have occured. As you cant change the combat moves after the first dice have been thrown. Maths here is for learning the people who dont know how to use it to calculate theyre odds BEFORE they attack. Then they can split it up as listed earlier in this thread so they can see what theyre odds are AFTER 1st battle succeed, so they have a backup plan IF that first battle fails.

• It’s based on triple A simulator.

Its the best estimate for how dices will roll, as it would be much to time consuming to manually calculate every battles, would take hours for every battle bigger then 1unit vs 1unit.

• It does not consider the casulaties taken by the ennemy

It assume you take the worst deffensive units first as casualties and the worst attacking units as casualties, so it actually gives you an worst case scenario unless youre up against a retard that sack his best deffensive units in a battle thats not huge in his favor.

• It does not take in account the fact you CAN choose the order in which you do your battles. Calling off an attack after a failure somewhere else is possible. You can retreat when there is no point…

You have to do 1 battleround as long as the combat move have been declared. Its beside the point though, as you then will have failed the overall strategy as lined out above and havent reached the goals.

Its REACHING those goals you use Maths for. You use it to determin the odds reaching the goals YOU set youreself, if you feel a battle is of minor importance you skip the battle in the calculation as that would be a battle thats not crucial for the overall strategy to be successfull. For instance you could have a lone sub vs 3loaded cvs at sea, that would be a +ev attack, but it still wont have good odds, so i would not add it in my calculations for odds for that combat round.

Still, let’s take a look at WHY it is 100% win sending the bomber. Your Bomber, fighter and one sub  fight against a BB.  If we go by theses ‘‘statistics’’, the battle is at 93-97% when in fact it’s 100% win Low luck. There is NO way around it.

Let’s do the “maths”: 4+3 = 7. That’s 1 automatic hit, and 1/6 for a possible second hit. PLUS 2/6 for the sub in yet another possible hit. Let’s say everything miss and the damaged BB hit back. The sub goes, another automatic hit goes in, the BB hit back again before sinking, the fighter goes. Worst case scenario, still 100% win.

In a oob setup with dices this is just utterly blatenly false, and just completely stupid. Again read the topic, this discussion is about using DICES

Thats the reason why playing LL and dices this game becomes two different games. Those attacks that might have 100% in low luck becomes lower with dices. So useing the odds from low luck to determin a winning strategy in a dice enviroment is just completely stupid, you have to use the odds the dices actually have to find it.

For a quick example go check out my tourney game in the tech tourney vs DemolitionMan. German 1 i failed BSt eventhough i had 100% in LL and 92% in dices. Thats what this guide is all about, understanding the differences between LL and dices AND learn how to calculate the true odds for an attack or a group of attacks in dice enviroment.

Now this thread have been derailed enough, start a new thread and i will answer you there if you still want to discuss things on the side of this topic.

no it doesnt, if you still have a goal of having all 6 to succeed, then the odds is still 50.1%, as you need to multiply 70% and 71% to make sure both T1 and T2 succeeds.

But if you succeeded with the 3first in turn 1, then you have 71% chance of getting all 6 done by attacking the last 3 in T2.