1)The counter attack on manchuria will still be devastating. The Russian player can’t attack Manchuria! The counter attack consist of something like this. 6 inf, 1 tank and 3 fig’s… Manchuria will be a deathtrap for the Russians. (4 inf from japan, wake and oki and the tank from Japan, 2 inf from the China attack)
First off I misinterpreted your NCM post thinking you were sending 2 TRN from Japan to the Solomons, not thinking that one of them HAD to be leaving from Phillipines (thus I was thinking that Japan was 2 INF fewer units on site which is why I made the comment about “nothing to transport”
The difference of those 2 available INF sways the balance in Japan’s favor for Manchuria counter, as you state. They do however lose almost all of their land forces in the attack (1 ARM and 1 INF remaining on average) which slows their initial progress on Russia.
Now, the initial battle for China with 5 INF and 2 FIGS
Japan will win that fight with an average of 3 INF (and their figs). Pulling 2 back for a Manchuria counter-attack leaves you with 1 INF in China. To then advance into Sinkiang in J2, you will probably have to lose a fig, OR divert your tank to the Sinkiang battle. That means you cannot blitz SFE and Yakut (or blitz through Yakut into Evenk or Novo). Again, you slow your advance in Northern Asia down another round by diverting forces.
Assume an INF build sufficient to fill all 3 trannies in J2. That means that on J3, Japan will have…
1 INF in FIC
1 INF in either Yakut or SFE (with the other still in Russian control)
1 INF, 1 ARM in Sinkiang
3 FIGS somewhere in Asia.
New forces to tranny in J3 that are sittng in Tokyo
On J3, you get to land those tranny forces you bought in J2. Now your probably have SFE AND Yakut, China and Sinkiang.
But Russia has blocked your progress in the Kazakh/Novo/Evenk perimiter. You have 1 ARM, 1 INF, and 3 figs to try to punch it… a BAD idea.
And it will be J5 before those first 6 landed INF can reach the frontier to assist with that attack.
In the mean time, Russia can counter you in either R4, or R5 with INF supported by 2 FIGS to take out your forward forces and stop your move on Russia AGAIN.
All of this assumes that UK did not fly a bomber to Evenk/Novo in UK1 and sink 1 or more of your Japan trannies in UK2., or that the Russians did not move their figs to Yakut (striking Manchuria with minimal force while maintaining their defensive position in Yakut) and hit your unguarded trannies in R3.
2)Most of the time the Ukraine will get exchanged so why not this game… At the start Germany can overcome those losses by taking Africa pretty quickly.
Then the Axis strat is subject to the decision of UK in India. If UK defends Africa, Germany is not going to reclaim those IPC losses there. Also, Japan is in very poor position to exploit any UK move out of India with having only 1 INF that can reach India after J1. UK can counter in Egypt wth 2 INF and 1 FIG without totally abandoning India, leaving Japan stalled in FIC due to lack of gorund forces (unless you want to risk a fig for it, and lose the use of the fig on your Sinkiang attack)
3)Ok the USA builds some ships. I will go underneath straight to africa, take brazil for 3 ipc’s if I pass. :P
So you gain Panama in J3, Brazil in J4 (can;t reach Panama from Solomons in 1 move) or you loop Cape Horn and still reach Brazil in J4. total +3 or 4 IPC’s. You lose more than that by diverting forces from Asia that would have allowed you to take a nice chunck of Russia’s territory and India. Not to mention that the economic impact on the US is minimal compared to the impact of taking the same number of IPC’s from Russia.
By J4, US has already landed forces in Africa AND Norway. UK has re-built their fleet, shot down the German AF (if it tried to kill the fleet) and also is landing forces in Norway.
The simple fact of the matter is that, the move you advocate simply slows down Japan’s IPC growth too much to be viable; and the opportunity cost of taking US IPC’s later rather than USSR IPC’s sooner is suicide.
Remember, the BEST IPC’s to take are Russian first (the greatest impact on your Axis pincer strike), then UK, and LAST the US. And the earlier the Russian losses are, the better.
SFE costs them 1 INF a round. Add Yakut and they lose 2 INF (20 instead of 24 IPC’s)