Unless you are playing against the woefully inept AI on Triple-A (as GTO is currently not even an option - not that it’s AI was wonderful either) or a similarly, woefully inept human opponent, Japan stands no realistic chance of capturing WUS within a short time frame. If you ARE playing against the AI, then virtually anything is possible. The last time I played the Triple-A AI, the AI left WEur bare at the end of G1, I captured it on UK1, and the Ger AI never attempted to take it back. If you captured Hawaii, Alaska, and China, the US would be at 37 IPC, not 38, so I assume the US opponent probably captured Algeria from Germany. Regardless, if Japan and the US are at an IPC parity of 38-38, the advantage goes to the US unless the Japanese already have a significant material advantage. Japan has no chance to take the WUS by surprise. They are telegraphing their intent to strike the WUS at least one turn in advance due to the travel involved, giving the US a turn to build up their defenses. Even if the US had been focusing their efforts solely in the Atlantic theater and all of their available units were in EUS or ECan, they could drop 2 tanks and 8 infantry on WUS before Japan could get there as well as bring any tanks or air units from EUS or ECan. Impossible for Japan to succeed, certainly not. However, it is highly unlikely to be successful against any decent US player.