• 2007 AAR League

    @ncscswitch:

    There IS a trade off for the quick UK kill.  It is the Russian Front and Africa.

    OK, London falls G1.  Germany gets uber money for G2.  Say +2 for Karelia, + 8 for UK, -2 for West Russia, +30 for UK bankroll.  Net +38, so $78. )Germany can;t afford Egypt in this case because of the Gibraltar BB)

    Now I am going to assume that Germany was out the Ukraine FIG, since it is a pretty common R1 open to take Ukraine.

    The AVERAGE is that UK falls with Germany having 2 FIGs, 1 ARM left.  They lose 1 INF, 3 FIG, 1 BOM in the battle ($48 IPC of units).  So already they come out BEHIND with $10 fewer IPC’s than they need just to replace losses from the attack.

    But what else?
    Only 2 FIGs to use in Central Europe on G2.
    Royal Navy INTACT.  If Germany sends EVERYTHING after the BB off Gibraltar, they can kill it, but that means giving up Egypt and THAT means threat to Germany from Ukraine to Western and total loss of Africa for the game.  If they don;t sink that BB, UK is liberated by the US, and UK has an uber-navy to which Germany has NO counter force since the Luftwaffe is GONE.
    US Liberates, and takes out somemore Kreigsmarine units.
    On T2, Germany is back down to being EVEN at the start of Russia’s turn, then they lose some combination of Ukraine, Belo, Karelia to Russia, Libya to UK, Norway to USA.

    But here is the other kicker…
    UK CAN LIBERATE ITSELF ON UK1
    1 ARM from ECan, possible TWIN BB shots.  94% chance to liberate.
    That means UK BUILDS on UK 2.
    And that means 2 TRNs and land units.

    So on UK3, UK is hitting Europe jsut as hard as they would have if London had not fallen (except for the AF units).
    But their fleet is untouchable, and Rusia was able to picket and trade against the massive G2 build, and now it is a battle for Europe, same as it ever was, except that the Luftwaffe is already dead.

    these calculations need to take into account other factors.

    1. The destroyed UK units (2 FTR, 1 BOM, 2 INF, 1 RTL 1 ARM = 50 IPC) during the invasion
    2. Uk can not build units until at least UK turn 2, possibly turn 3, giving Germany a huge break on Western defenses, freeing up units to hold back the russians.
    3. Germany now has Long Range Aircraft for the rest of the game
    4. The US probably doesnt land in Africa turn 1, having to take back UK, more money for GER.
    5. The US or UK may lose additional units retaking UK
    6. Germany has an intact fleet in the North Sea (most Russian players dont send their sub there, choosing instead to link up with the British Fleet for added protection from German planes. And the UK airforce is no more.
    7. If the UK is not able to take back England, it will collect NO MONEY turn 1!, so delayed gains in Africa for Germany are more than offset by UK loss of at least 22 potential IPC.
    8. Germany can send a sub to take out one UK TRN, decreasing chance of UK recapture, but risking gibralter battle.
    9. Germany can still maintain a presence in Africa. If they dont take Egy turn one, killing the BB instead, they can consolidate a nice force in LIB and take EGY turn 2, perhaps with BB and TRN assistance, unless UK fortifies hard, depleting India for JAP. The TRN can even consider dropping a ARM in ALG to help out, following the battle in Gibralter.
    10. Germany often can retake Russia first turn gains using just a few tanks and RTL, replacing lost FTR and ARM with the surplus purchased during the turn 2 build, though Germany may be forced to pull back turn 2 while they wait for the hugeTurn 2 build to reach the front lines (78 dollars… 2 ARm, 2 FTR, 16!!! infantry)
    11. if Germany takes out the Gibralter BB, and manages to keep the TRN (should, with 1 SS 1 BB 1 TRN vs BB, or even if not), and UK does not take back England during their turn, you might even have a German recapture of UK (1-2 TRN full of troops, amphib shot from BB, maybe a few planes versus the US troops that survive the retake, at most 1 ARM 2 INF 1 RTL (no aircraft, of course, cuz they can’t land), though Russia can choose to land some fighters in UK, severely limiting their turn 2 flexibility- They cant land in UK unless they landed first turn in Moscow. And if they do, they can only fight a battle in ARC if they want to reach UK. This also helps Germany’s 2nd turn.
    12. you had Germany pick a BOM as a casualty before a FTR… I wouldnt do that, and that might
      affect your calculations, 3 Attack vs 4 attack.
    13. If Germany is even considering this move, they can put their bid in UKR, possibly detering or resisting a Russian invasion, saving their FTR and thus, improving their odds of a UK capture and possibly having 2 land units for defense against recapture (1 ARM 1 INF should beat or tie 1 ARM and 1 BB shot, may be worth sacrificing the FTR to spare the INF, if the rolls go right). Or if the bid is large enough, they can get 1 INF 1 RTL LIB, and still take out EGY. Also, with one more IPC bid, of 8, why not go TRN z5 and go hog wild on UK.

    All in all, I’d rather be on the Axis side of that confrontation.
    Mateo

  • 2007 AAR League

    even better, if the german sub is used to attack the TRN outside of Eastern Canada and wins (a pretty good chance) , then UK CAN NOT even try to retake UK on turn 1. The sub prevents any british attempt to grab the canadian armour. Germany can then afford to lose, or just ignore the Gibralter battle, and hold UK until US turn.
    Mateoo


  • @mateooo:

    All in all, I’d rather be on the Axis side of that confrontation.
    Mateo

    Oh I agree.  Just being Devil’s Advocate that it is not automatic cetain death… just that you are in deep kimchee and are going to have to work like hell to pull out of it.  BUT, if you do, the lack of Germany FIGs is going to be a major boost IF you can get UK back into the war by UK3.


  • if the uk has enough money for an ic but not its captial can it start prodicng units and buy an ic and put ot somewhere?


  • No, you cant build units unless you have your capital, the only things you can do are move and attack.


  • @cyan:

    if the uk has enough money for an ic but not its captial can it start prodicng units and buy an ic and put ot somewhere?

    How can the UK have any money if it doesn’t have a capital?  :-)

  • 2007 AAR League

    Quick question, probably obvious. The turn a country takes back their capital, they start collecting income again… right?
    Also, I am playing a game at DAAK, and am in a very interesting situation with LOTS of cool possibilities, regarding a situation similar to the one we are discussing (not with LRA, but with a similar chance of taking out UK) , I was wondering if there is a way I can post an ABattlemap here for people to see and offer opinions.
    Mateooo


  • Quick question, probably obvious. The turn a country takes back their capital, they start collecting income again… right?

    Yes.

    Although since the taking-back of the capital happened after the Purchase New Units phase, the player must wait (and hold that capital!) until their next turn to purchase and mobilize new units.

    Nothing hurts more than losing your capital and a stack of cash, taking back your capital, collecting income, and then getting recaptured again to lose the cash before you even have a chance to purchase new units.

    ~Josh

  • 2007 AAR League

    @mateooo:

    Also, I am playing a game at DAAK, and am in a very interesting situation with LOTS of cool possibilities, regarding a situation similar to the one we are discussing (not with LRA, but with a similar chance of taking out UK) , I was wondering if there is a way I can post an ABattlemap here for people to see and offer opinions.
    Mateooo

    Yup, just click “Additional Options” and then you’ll see how to attach a file. I’m interested to see your situation. Or just PM me or e-mail me.

  • 2007 AAR League

    Situation is, Japan has completed turn, destroying Pearl Harbor fleet losing only a SUB, with AC 2 FTR DD and BB remaining, so US doesnt have a play on hitting PH. Russia had some fairly bad rolls in UKR and WRU, retreating to conserve ARM. GER took EGY, which was taken back by UK.
    US Turn is still pending (my opponent is being pokey). After that, Russia will go then my turn, as Germany Turn 2

    [attachment deleted by admin]


  • Actually the US DOES have a viable Pearl counter.  It would be expensive, but cost Japan far more than the US.

    And I do not see the risk to UK on that map… not any REAL risk anyway…  There is a fleet in the way, forces in UK, and some of your AF our of range of both battles.  Also, USA has not moved yet, and that means potential reinforce of UK…


  • @mateooo:

    Also, I am playing a game at DAAK, and am in a very interesting situation with LOTS of cool possibilities, regarding a situation similar to the one we are discussing (not with LRA, but with a similar chance of taking out UK) , I was wondering if there is a way I can post an ABattlemap here for people to see and offer opinions.

    Situation is, Japan has completed turn, destroying Pearl Harbor fleet losing only a SUB, with AC 2 FTR DD and BB remaining, so US doesnt have a play on hitting PH. Russia had some fairly bad rolls in UKR and WRU, retreating to conserve ARM. GER took EGY, which was taken back by UK.
    US Turn is still pending (my opponent is being pokey). After that, Russia will go then my turn, as Germany Turn 2

    1.  Wait until Germany 1 to see if attack on UK is viable.

    2.  If I understand that map correctly, your opponent REALLY sucks.  The only thing I see right is the recapture of Anglo-Egypt.

    3.  Well, either 2., or you had some kind of gigantic German bid.

  • 2007 AAR League

    Or bad dice.

    But yeah, if the US reinforces UK, there’s no chance of taking UK.

  • '10

    Yeah, if USA reinforces, don’t try it.  But if the UK looks the same on Germany’s turn, I reckon you’ve got a decent chance at taking it (1 inf, 1 tank, 5 fighters, 1 bomber vs 1 tank, 1 art, 2 inf), just be prepared to lose most of your fighters.

    I think the shock factor of losing UK so early generally rocks most intermediate players and he may give up there and then.

  • '10

    @ncscswitch:

    There is a fleet in the way

    Not for the southern forces.  He can use the fighters in the baltic fleet to attack UK without engaging the UK fleet

  • 2007 AAR League

    @Sime:

    Yeah, if USA reinforces, don’t try it.  But if the UK looks the same on Germany’s turn, I reckon you’ve got a decent chance at taking it (1 inf, 1 tank, 5 fighters, 1 bomber vs 1 tank, 1 art, 2 inf), just be prepared to lose most of your fighters.

    I think the shock factor of losing UK so early generally rocks most intermediate players and he may give up there and then.

    Actually, as it is now, chances are you’d only lose two planes, possibly three. One plane to the AA, and one or two more in combat. With a BB shot and all that firepower the battle should only last one round.

    Also take into account though that you will lose your Med. BB.

    How did you get one or two extra Ftrs? I count 7 total, when Germany starts with 6 and one is often killed in Ukraine in R1.

  • '10

    @froodster:

    Actually, as it is now, chances are you’d only lose two planes, possibly three.

    Yeah, that’s true.  Statistically that’s what would happen.  But I’m ever a pessimist when it comes to dice in A&A.  I always expect to lose more than the stats tell me - that way I’m not so dissapointed when I do lose those fighters.  :wink:  :-D

  • 2007 AAR League

    My opponent doesnt suck by my estimation, but you were right, he had some unlucky rolls in Ukraine and WRU and decided to pull back to conserve his armour, statistically I believe he made some tough but probably correct decisions, and now has a very offensive Russian army.

    Second, the 7th fighter was purchased turn one, and placed on the new AC.

    My thought on the UK invasion is several fold.

    If US reinforces with land troops, then Germany has a VERY good chance to destroyed the US reinforcing fleet (1 BB 1 SS 1 TRN plus several planes versus 2 TRN 1 DD.
    In addition, GER can then simultaneously destroy the entire british navy (2 SS 1 DD 1 AC 1 TRN, up to 5 FTR and 1 BOM vs 1 AC 1 BB 1 TRN 1 DD 2 FTR) and 1 UK BOM in Africa in the same turn. He chose to sacrifice the BOM in the take back of EGY, and landed the India FTR on the AC off EGY, to save it against JAP… not what my choice would have been, but I see what his intention was.  I had a 2 INF bid to LIB and if he had landed the FTR with the BOM to protect it, his 1 AC and 1 TRN would have been easily killed by JAP Turn 1, as his DD was killed killing the Jap TRN. Additionally, he left IND protected with 1 AA and 2 INF, keeping it for one more turn at least.

    So he CAN prevent the UK invasion, but only by sacrificing the US and UK fleet, or by throwing 1 TRN to z 12.
    if instead he chooses to reinforce UK with only US planes, GER has about a 90% chance of taking UK, but can’t take out the UK fleet.

    If Russia decides to consolidate the entire army in WRU, Germany would also have another option to ignore the heavy strike against the british fleet, and instead destroy the WRU army, with about 7 ARM and planes surviving.

    I know I still have to wait for RUS and US, but its fun exploring the possibiilities. When he finishes his turns, I will post it.

    How would you defend as US? sacrifice the US fleet and reinforce UK? Regardless of what Russia does, I should be able to retake any important russian gains without the use of the German airforce, and Russian planes cant reinforce UK.


  • To destroy both Allied fleets would slow the Allies 1 turn, at the cost of your navies and some AF.

    With Russia sitting with what you call an “offensive force”, I am not sure that delay is enough to make the risk worthwhile.

    Alternates thoughts:
    The Brazil grab to distract the US
    Backdoor entry into Africa via FWA
    A WCan strike, again to distract America (though not as effective since the US usually comes through WCan to Europe anyway)
    Back-blast with the Med Fleet into T-J

    And still take out the UK fleet with your Baltic forces plus a few AF, losing Navy before AF.

  • 2007 AAR League

    Since I am a big wuss, I will probably be conservative, taking out the UK fleet, maybe sending a BOM to take out the stray UK TRN or the US fleet with a SS, then back the Med fleet to take out the DD, make a 2 INF 1 FTR strike against EGY to try to close the Suez canal, and FTR the BOM.

    If done strongly enough, the UK fleet battle can be done possibly without plane loss (7 FTR 1 BOM 2 SS 1 DD 1 AC 1 TRN vs 1 CV 2 FTR 1 BB 1 DD 1 TRN 1SS), and perhaps keeping the AC (otherwise 2 FTR die anyways without anyplace to land, from Lib). In that case, i’d sacrifice 2 planes for just that reason, keeping an CV and DD alive instead, keeping a GER fleet that cant be taken out turn 2 (2 FTR CV and DD, and UK no longer has any planes, and US planes from East Canada cant help.

    Also the Russian sub can prevent a UK attack moving to zone 12, but that only makes the UK navy more vulnerable. And then that US fleet, 1 DD and 2 TRN, is a sitting duck for a GER SS and a few FTR or BOM.

    BTW, UK also has 1 TRN 1 SS carrying 2 INF east of new zealand, so a UK fleet loss is partially offset by a decent fleet merging off the west coast of Africa (1 SS 2 TRN 1 AC 1 FTR) and slowing making its way back home.

    mateooo

Suggested Topics

  • 2
  • 9
  • 10
  • 16
  • 15
  • 150
  • 9
  • 9
Axis & Allies Boardgaming Custom Painted Miniatures

35

Online

17.0k

Users

39.3k

Topics

1.7m

Posts