Critique this Germany Opening Turn: Bye,Bye Boatie

[Guest]

@limitedwhole:

Okay take that back they can land at Gibraltar.  So I need to invade spain on turn one, so that if they land in Gibraltar I rumble in with couple tanks.

Which costs you an INF build.

And even so, your fleet is STILL dead in UK1 to those figs.  You have an unguarded tranny that will be in range of Russia figs if Russia is played well.  That means the tranny was NEVER used.  Even if Russia can;t kill it, the tranny will be in range in UK2 of the India fighter, and will be in range in UK2 of the UK Bomber.  You get 2 more INF to Africa.

NOT enough to hold it.

There is another thread on here somewhere where I blew the snot out of even a SEVEN extra INF in Africa situation (where Germany STARTS with 7 extra INF in Africa).

2 just ain’t gonna cut it.

A better use of Med navy:
Amphib Caucuses in G1.

[Linkon]

Your Ger Turn 1 purchase will hurt you in later turns vs Rus.

At minimum, 7-8 ground units should be bought per turn just to keep pace vs Rus.  More bought will give Ger the edge, but only vs Rus.

If US and UK decide to gang up on Ger, then you will have wished you bought all inf as they give the best defense for the money.

Mathematical combat factor / cost breakdown favors inf,then arm, then ftr.  Defensive value is worth much more for Ger because your same units could defend up to three times per round (as Rus, UK, and US attack) but only attack once per round.

[limitedwhole]

Scratch this.  We play with ahouse rule were Industial centers are limited to territorial I.P.  Hence Russia cannot drop all its troops directly on the front line.  Anyways, I’m changing it up.

What I do now, is attack the BRitish home navy while ignoring the trannie in EAstern Canada.  Converge on the Battleship with two infantry on trannie, leaving the submarine for next turn.  1 INF goes to Gibraltar.  1 INF goes to north Africa. I purchase 10 INF and save the TP for turn two along with a AC.  This works with the home rule of KArelia limit.  This rule essentially gives GErmany breathing room on even numbered turns unless Russia invests more heavily in armor.

[Linkon]

A&A is like chess where a small advantage needs to be exploited quickly and efficiently leveraged into bigger ones until your side becomes dominate in the game.  This leverage usu comes at the expense of giving your opponent a trivial advantage in some other arena.  The point is to fully develop the advantage given to you before your opponent can bear full fruit from the advantage you gave them.  The starting economy of the Axis prevents them from being strong everywhere for a while.  You need to focus your strength at key an critical points of the map.  Spread yourself too thin too early, and you can expect to lose vs players who can really focus.

The limited starting IC house rule would preclude the Afr campaign and drive any decent Ger player towards exploiting that Rus weakness w/an all land unit initial purchase.  9 inf /1 arm, 7 inf / 2 arm would be better suited.  Jpn should also focus more on Rus w/ an initial 3 inf / 2 trn purchase.  Overrun Eurasia w/ ground units before US and UK can make a dent there.  Taking Rus while holding on to both Axis capitals puts them into the dominant position.

An better option would be to buy 10 inf on the first turn for Ger and 5+ arm on turn 2.  That complete purch can be used on your Ger 3 attack to take Kar while Rus has at least 5-6 inf sitting back doing nothing.  Dissappation on that front is a weakness to be exploited.  Divide and conquer.

[Linkon]

US trns can steadily drop inf on Kar by US3.  US and UK will sometimes opt to keep the bulk of the rebuilt fleet in the UK SZ and walk inf across Fin/Nor to Kar.  The Rus disadvantage from the limited Kar IC will soon fade after US4.

By UK6, both trn fleets can and should land troops into Spain for $ 3 UK.  6+ UK inf, 8+US inf + possible air power.  This stages the WE assaults by combined amphib+ Spn ground units the following turn.  The US will usu take it after the initial UK assault.  The 3 vs 1 gang up on Ger will soon envelop your capital (2-3 turns) and the Axis will have limited game options after that.  Play it right and Jpn gets 1-2 extra turns to take Rus.  Play wrong or unlucky and you lose.

[Guest]

Linkon, you forget 1 thing in your analysis…

Germany can suicide their remaining AF against that tranny fleet in either G2 (if UK built right away) or G3 (if they waited and dropped a larger fleet).  A G2 attack often leaves Germany with a few planes left.  A G3 attack costs Germany its remaining AF, but will take out teh trannies in that fleet before they can be used.  That means UK/US are not landing forces before G4.

With limitted IC’s, Germany should have a strong stream of land forces through Eastern to Karelia, where Germany is also building forces starting in G3 based on the previous post.  Meanwhile, Russian income has been down since the begining, 24 IPC’s in R1, 24 plus or minus in R2, 19 in R3, and only 15 for R4: the round Germany drops the hammer, or the round before Germany drops the hammer depending on how it is played.  If Germany waits for G5, then the Russian build could be as low as 8 IPC’s worth in R5.

Again, a lot of variables.  Just showing one potential set up.

Also, with Germany IN Karelia and building there, it will take some time for UK/US forces to reach Russia, since they have to first get Germany out of Karelia.  That time Russia may not have, if Japan is being played well and is sending the 6-7 tanks per round into Asia by J4…

[Linkon]

Only RR or a v.high initial bid will allow Ger to use the AF vs. the allied navies a third time.

limitedw’s usage of the AF in G1 will leave it at 40-70% of starting strength going into G2.

As Ger I prefer to attack when it is worthwhile.  Desperation measures such as trading 4 ftrs for 4 trns will only speed the axis demise.  Short term, it only delays allied action for 1 turn.

Keep in mind that ftrs (range 4) can attack Rus from WE and then land back in Kar.  So, if Ger gets a lucky enough strike vs Kar and takes it w >8arm, the follow-up into Rus can secure a very dominant position in the following turn.  There will be no Ger reinforcement on that immediate attack.  Rus could have over >10 inf + surviving allied ftrs.  Your ftrs have the potential to tip the critical 2nd battle.  After that, it does not matter if the allies invade WE or even hold SE.

I have viewed a number of games at FOE.
There are a few cases where Ger attacked Kar (after a few rounds) and the Ger player usu bought 1 ftr that turn.  It becomes evident in the following turn that the Kar attack was expected as a victory opening the way into Rus, but extra firepower was still needed for the Rus attack.  Inf and arm are obviously too slow, but ftrs can attack Rus and land back in Kar on the turn needed.

http://www.flames-of-europe.de/modules.php?name=Dicey&file=rangliste

Losing Ger ftrs for that battle is worthwhile because it gives the axis dominance.

The axis will control the extra capital.
Ger will have $40+ income + Russia’s bank holdings for the following purchases… net usu $50+. 
Jpn can rush ftrs and bmr over to defend and limit allied fleet movements.
Jpn ground forces can sweep unopposed through asia and spill into Afr. 
Jpn fleet is freed up to mount amphibs across the Pacific.

So as long as Rus falls and Ger holds, the tide rapidly turns against the allies.  The allies only hope is to immediately take Ger.  Ger needs to buy all inf on the turn they attack Rus.

[Guest]

@Linkon:

So as long as Rus falls and Ger holds, the tide rapidly turns against the allies.  The allies only hope is to immediately take Ger.  Ger needs to buy all inf on the turn they attack Rus.

If Russia falls and Germany does not fall to the UK or to US the same round, the game is over…

Russia’s territories equal an Economic Victory.  Assuming 1-4 minor territories still in Russian control, but figuring in the US loss of China and Sinkiang, as well as India… well that is it.

And if you are not using Economic Victory…
Even if Germany is BARELY alive when Russia falls, and UK and/or US hold Western AND Southern…  Germany drops a build of Infantry in a worst case scenario, 15 to 20 divisions… And the surviving forces from Moscow move back toward Germany…
Meanwhile, that Japan fleet of 6-7 trannies now loads up and heads for the US, ending all US assistance in Europe.  UK at 20-25 IPC’s against Germany’s 40+, US at 30 IPC’s against Japan’s 40+…

[Linkon]

Once I played a buddy who was a bit rusty. Â

I beat him earlier in 2004 as the allies.  He remembered a few old games (not vs me) where allies usu won and wanted to beat me the same way.

We played RR and he had a partial split in Rus forces to support a Sing IC for the US.

I took advantage of that weakness on G1 w/ a 5 arm 2 inf purch and set up the Kar attack. Â

Due to RR, I sank all UK fighting ships in the European theatre w/minor losses (ftr, 2trn, 2sub). Â

The Med BB sank UK’s, but this was after losing both a sub and trn+inf for the Gib amphib.
This is a good G1 attack to set up a favorable G2 attack (BB+trn+AF) on the rebuilt UK fleet.

UK ftrs sank my BB, landing ftrs in Gib.

R2 he weakened himself further by taking FN. Â

This miscalculation was followed by my taking Kar w/ 11 Arm G2. Â

Rus rebuilt defenses.  Would have had an extra $2 left over, so bought an arm in place of the last inf.  US/UK ftrs clustered on Rus.  
G3  I could have risked all to end it then.  It looked 50/50.  I figured on luring Rus into another trap.  Bought another 5 arm + inf.  Took out Rus arm + UK inf  in FN using/all 11 Ger arm + ftrs.  3 inf build in Kar.  All other ground units built in Ger/SE.  Ftrs, bmr land in WE.

R4 takes the bait.  He attacks and wins Kar.  Rus forces split again.  
G4.  Bought 2 ftr + inf.  Attacked Kar w/7 inf 14 arm.  lost only 1 inf in a single round of dice.  
US takes WE.
G5 attacked Rus taking w/10 arm + AF.  Allies surrender.

Biggest mistake I exploited was the retaking of Kar.  I had forces in Ger, EE, and FN set up to retake it in strong force.  That movement would have also united my ground forces into something he could not attack.  He mainly wanted to prevent me from using the IC.  But it cost him the strength of a big, IC-supported stack that also enjoyed US/UK ftr defense.  The lack of his 7 ground units lost in Kar made the final battle much easier for me.  I may have had to wait an extra 2 builds worth if he continued the defensive builds in R4.

My opponent was rusty.  Perhaps he was not even that good in his prime.  We both knew that Kar was important.  I had an edge from studying those FOE games which was shown in the management of my ground force concentrations.  
Defensive lines, are common in real military life.  They look nice on the war history shows and Time-Life books.  But this game is mostly about unlimited stacking.  The ultimate stacks face each other across Kar-EE.  Break the opposing stack there, and you can win the game.  Taking lightly defended and undefended lands are only a secondary objective.

[Linkon]

My old buddies and I play for absolute dominance.  EV is for the weak.

If the axis can reach EV and then lose Ger or Jpn in the following round, what was the actual worth?

[Linkon]

@ncscswitch:

@Linkon:

So as long as Rus falls and Ger holds, the tide rapidly turns against the allies.  The allies only hope is to immediately take Ger.  Ger needs to buy all inf on the turn they attack Rus.

If Russia falls and Germany does not fall to the UK or to US the same round, the game is over…

Russia’s territories equal an Economic Victory.  Assuming 1-4 minor territories still in Russian control, but figuring in the US loss of China and Sinkiang, as well as India… well that is it.

And if you are not using Economic Victory…
Even if Germany is BARELY alive when Russia falls, and UK and/or US hold Western AND Southern…  Germany drops a build of Infantry in a worst case scenario, 15 to 20 divisions… And the surviving forces from Moscow move back toward Germany…
Meanwhile, that Japan fleet of 6-7 trannies now loads up and heads for the US, ending all US assistance in Europe.  UK at 20-25 IPC’s against Germany’s 40+, US at 30 IPC’s against Japan’s 40+…

A common practice after taking a capitol by my friends and I is the tech rolling for HB.

The US & UK can both be heavily defended by the time you get a decent invasion fleet going.  However, only a fool would persist against HB, Rockets, IT and the income to back them up while down a capitol w/o HB to counter.

[limitedwhole]

The only bad thing I dislike about not even contending for africa is that the U.S. no longer has to divert resources their which means they can land and take Finland/Norway instead and buy a few extra bombers to assist the Brits in bombing the mac-cheesenits out of Germany.  Typically in our games, Britian has an IC in India pumping out 3 INF and purchases a Bomber everyturn.  The U.S. can also purchase a bomber everyturn and if Japan is not thretening in the Pacific can just pile on the strategic bombing.  6 Bombers is 21 IC a turn with a likely loss.  Thats the one thing I really dislike about not using the GErman airforce to attack the BRitish Navy.  They can support U.S. landings witha  few troops, pump oput enough INF in India to hold it long enough or deter Japanese forces south, and bomb the crap of Germany.  Maybe my AA guns just never hit, but not-contending in Africa usually leads to a crapload of bombs falling on teh fatherland.

[Guest]

If UK builds an IC in India AND is buying bombers…
I am going to win.

Add in US buying bombers, and I am CERTAINLY going to win.

UK diverts a MINIMUM of 24 IPCs to India with an IC build and then 3 INF to defend it (and they BETTER have more than that, or I am taking it as Japan in short order, probably the round they drop the first 3 INF divisions there.  Then I get a free continental IC as Japan to flow ranks through Persia and into Caucuses and Kazakh…

UK buys the IC and Bomber round 1.  That is all of his money.  Buys another bomber on UK2, plus the 3 INF and some other stuff (no navy though, no money for it, except maybe an unguarded sub or tranny).  US buys a bomber also, meaning fewer Atlantic transports to send land forces to follow up on any Germany weakness.

That translates to Germany having NO THREAT from the west (the UK fleet was sunk on G1, US will be sending trannies to the Atlantic w/o protection unless they want to spend their second full build on a loaded Carrier…)

I am up to a MINIMUM of 4 rounds to trash Russia now, without resistance in the west.  Leave an INF in Western, and base my FIGS there (they can still reach Karelia and back same round).  Then pour INF first then Tanks at Karelia.

Germany’s first build is un-reduced by SBR’s.  Germany’s second build is reduced by only 1 SBR, the original UK bomber.  That means I added about 10 INF and 5-7 tanks to my inventory while Russia added 16 INF.  Since I had the superior forces to begin with, and since I have no threats anywhere else, I can consolidate ALL of my German forces into Eastern (and Ukraine if I feel like it).  AFTER G2, Germany should be getting hit with 3 bombers, 2 in UK2, 1 in US2.  Avg loss is 10.5 IPC’s, with a 50% likelyhood of only 7 IPC’s due to AA.  In G3, Germany thus builds at approximately 25 IPC’s.  That is also the round I take Karelia, and keep it.  I may drain the hell out of my other force areas to do so, but with nothing coming at me by sea yet, I have no worries.  US is only JUST getting ready to try to come at me with an AC, 2 figs, and 2-3 trannies.  Germany sends their AF after that fleet, 4-5 figs and a bomber.  3 hits first wave (no more trannies, and 1 fig gone)  I lose 2-3 figs.  Press the attack, sink the AC and kill the last fig, I land 1-2 figs and a bomber.  US has no naval presence in the Atlantic (except any unguarded trannies built in US3), and UK is trying to build bombers and keep that India IC.

Meanwhile, by J3, Japan has landed forces in Asia, has taken SFE AND Yakut even if stacked.  If not stacked, Japan is now in Novo and/or Evenk.  Russia is down to 12-15 IPC’s against Germany STILL building above 20, even with the SBR damage and an existing superiority of forces by Germany.

Russia falls in a quick 1-2 or 1-2-3 by Germany and Japan.  Japan turns on US, Germany starts building Med navy (out of range of bombers), THEN starts to take Africa to destroy UK economy, then let the invasion begin, after a half dozen or more rounds of build up by Germany and Japan.  Once UK is down to building at 8-11IPC’s (after losing Africa, the Middle East, Australia and New Zeland, then Canada, their bomber fleet quickly is whittled away by AA fire and a lack of ability to replace them.  Germany’s IPC’s skyrocket with the captrured territories (about 50-60 IPC’s, requiring TEN bombers with NO AA hits AND maximum damage roll to counter… ain’t happening)

The only question in a game that the allies play as you describe is:
Will Germany be able to take UK before Japan gets there via Washington DC.

[Linkon]

Behind the purchase of every bomber is the hope for the eventual magical technology roll…

[Guest]

@Linkon:

Behind the purchase of every bomber is the hope for the eventual magical technology roll…

The odds of hitting HB is 1 in 36 per die.  That means it takes 180 IPC’s to get Heavy Bombers on average.

180 IPC’s not spent building the bombers themselves…
180 IPC’s not spent building navy to protect your coast from invasion…
180 IPC’s not spent building land forces to block an enemy invasion…
180 IPC’s not spent building forces to attack your enemy.

UK Round 1:  30 IPC.
UK Round 2:  26 IPC (after losing Egypt, French West and Central)
UK Round 3:  20 IPC (after losing India, Italian East, Rhodesia and Congo)
UK Round 4:  15 IPC (after losing South Africa, Madagascar and Australia)
UK Round 5:  14 IPC (after losing New Zeland)

After 5 rounds of technology rolls, you have spent 105 IPC’s trying to get them, with only a 58% chance of success at this point.  And even if you DO hit, you no longer can even afford to BUY a bomber a round.  And your opponents are now building at a combined 100+ IPC’s, requiring TEN heavy bombers to zero their income.

It is a losing strategy 95%+ of the time.  And the other 5% is just luck, not skill.

[Linkon]

I’m only stating observational psychology.  It reflects some actions that even I’ve taken.  There is motive behind every purchase in the game.

As stated before, I play for overwhelming dominance.  The odds shown by NCS clearly show tech rolling too early to be a poor purchase decision.

Rolling is something my old friends and I generally avoid until we go up a capitol.  Most of my old group will even hold off until our country also has 2 or more bmrs, so we can still selectively attack while we patiently spend for the tech that solidifies our dominant position in the game.

It telegraphs the message to my opponent(s) that the game is so much in my favor that I can afford to waste tons of spending on the unknown, and they can chance it too, but only at the risk of their remaining capitols.

[Linkon]

Tech rolling is a very in thing to do when you got what amounts to EV (on top of an enemy capitol), but the opposition will not yield the game.

Being somewhat anti-EV myself, I will accept a 4 tech differential as a term of victory.

[Linkon]

Of course HB as a single tech should be treated like it is worth 4 techs.

IT is treated as 2 techs.

[Guest]

I look at tech in 2 ways…

First, it is a matter of luck not strategy.  being beaten by someone using Tech is not a “real” win (and I would have said the same thing if my HB’s in the Revised game I just finished with Trihero had given me Russia… he outplayed me, the HB was a desperation gambit that failed).

Second…
The BEST Tech possibility for the Allies fo the game would be Russia with IT.  So Russia risks it all and miraculously hits IT (odds are something like 11% of that happening with 20 IPC’s spent).  So now Russia gets to buy INF at 2 instead of 3.  War won, right?  Not quite.

Losing that R1 build (1 INF instead of 8 ) means that Germany takes Karelia on G1 as well as taking out the UK fleet.  Russia gets to build 12 INF in R2 thanks to IT.  But Germany is now sending 4 INF and 4 ARM toward Karelia, as well as moving every other force they have that can reach in that direction, plus a build in Karelia on G2.

In R3, Russia is only building 9 INF due to loss of Karelia and SFE.  But in G3, Germany can hit Russia with 5 figs, 1 bomber, around 10 ARM and a handful of INF.  This against about 20 Russia INF.

Round 1:
Germany loses 1 FIG to AA
Germany kills 8 INF
Russia kills 10 units (say 5 INF and 5 ARM)

Round 2: 
Germany kills 6 units
Russia kills 3 (more ARM)

Round 4:
Germany kills 3
Russia kills 1 (1 more ARM)

Round 5:
Germany kills 2
Russia MIGHT kill 1 FIG

Round 6:
Last Russian INF dies.  Germany occupies with 1 ARM, sends FIGS and Bomber home to trash UK fleet next round.

Game over.

Perfect tech, perfect time (start of game), and it actually makes things WORSE for the nation getting the tech that spent the money to get it.

And remember that that Tech roll could just as easily have been super subs as IT, or NOTHING!

No.  Tech is a luck factor.  Anyone relying on tech to win a game is doomed to MOST of the time lose for lack of success on tech.

Let me fight without tech and kick the sh*t out of my opponent, or lose to an opponent who out played me.

[Linkon]

NCS, I am sure most of the veterans will agree with you that tech has little meaning when you don’t have the income to make the best use of it.

The very effort to attain a specific tech can risk your defeat, if you do it too early.