2nd ed rule board game, Russia Restricted, no other variant (eg no bidding, no 2-hit BattleShip).
Overview: UK and US need 2 turns to build up its transport fleet and another 2 turns to succssfully reinforce Russia either directly or by pressuring Europe/Africa. If the Axis can capture Russia by turn 4 or 5, UK & US won’t be able to liberate Russia, thus allowing Germany to strengthen Europe, etc and win the game.
Russia on turn 1 have 3 choices
- Defend Caucasus & Karelia,
- Abandon Caucasus and defend Karelia only,
- Get really cocky and move troop eastward toward Japan.
The 4th option of heavily defending Soviet Far East is death for Russia since Japan will wipe out all Russian troop on the Eastern Front with little loss, thus now have a free passage to Moscow.
Now, if Russia goes with #1 and say defends Cau with 5 Inf, leaving 15 Inf, 3Armor and 2 Fighter in Karelia. (1 Armor in Novo, 6 Inf Yakut, 1 Inf Soviet Far East).
Germany buy 6 Armors, save 2 IPC.
Germany will then sac everything against Russia.
Against Karelia, bridge 2 Inf W Eur and attack with 4 Armor 5 Fighter 1 Bomber. 57% Ger win with at least 1 armor & all air left with 14% Ger will still have 4 Armor.
Against Caucasus, send the BB & Trans with 2 Inf (S Eur) and 3 Armor. 89% of the time Ger win with at least 1 Armor. 56%, he win with 3 Armor surviving.
Send the W Eur sub against the E Can tran (75% kill tran)
Attack Egypt and Africa, etc. Egypt is 51% chance of capturing.
NonCombat 2 Inf into W Eur from Ger and 4 Fighter.
Move 2 Armor, 2 Inf in E Europe
Place 6 Armor, 1 Fighter, 1 Bomber in Ger
After the Germany turn, Russia have exactly nothing in Russia and only 1 Armor in Novo. UK can try to recapture Karelia with 1 Tran & 2 Inf and whatever air it like.
Japan buy IC in Manchuria & 2 Armor.
Combat weakest of China-Yakut-India.
Send only sea against Pearl Harbor.
NonCombat the Armor into Manchuria and land all air onto Asia.
Russia probably abandon Karelia because of the 3 Armor in Caucasus. So buy and place 8 Inf in Russia, retreating the Armor into Russia.
She’ll retreat the 6 Inf in Yakut into Novo.
Germany, if still holding Karelia, buy 3 Inf and as many armor as possible. If not holding Karelia, buy all armor. At this point Germany should be able to capture Karelia with 8+ units surviving, making any recapturing attempts impossible.
Buy 5 armor (3 in Manchuria, 2 in Japan)
Japan will sac her entire air and whatever land can reach Novo.
Then noncombat 2 Armor into Machuria.
After Turn 2, she’ll have 5 Armor in Manchuria, 1 Armor and some Inf in Yakut.
Turn 3, Russia can’t do jack, have very little money, possibly only enough for 4 Inf, maybe less if Germany & Japan SBR on turn 2. So in Russia is still only 12 Inf & 1 Armor plus whatever air UK & US can provide.
Germany on Turn 3 can build Inf to defend against Normandy, SBR Russia, and move the rest of the Armor up to cau. So that’s ~16 Armor and 6 Inf on Moscow doorstep.
Japan Turn 3 will SBR Russia and move the 5 armor in Manchuria as far as possible toward Moscow. At turn end, she’ll have 6 armor and some inf on Moscow doorstep.
Turn 4, Russia can’t do jack and have even less money. So will have 12-16 Inf with UK/US air.
Germany Turn 4, attack with 16 Armor & 6 Inf and all air. If she doesn’t capture Moscow, Japan will capture on her turn.
If on UK/US Turn 4 they don’t land in W Eur or E Eur, Germany then will turtle up and fortify Fortess Europa. Send land unit south via Cau-Persia. Japan can easily survive any US Pacific fleet.
I haven’t quite work out all the odd, but it look like at least 33% chance, reaching maybe as high as 50% that Axis can capture Russia by Turn 4.