AAA effect is adjusting the final combat result after accounting for the initial Anti-Air Artillery. It have a big effect. For example, if no air were shoot down, I believe the probability of success increase by about 20%. If 3 air were shoot down, the probability of success drop to less than 5%. So I take the probability of each outcome (eg what happen if 0 shot down, 1 shot down, etc) and add them all together to arrive at the final number.

AAA doesn’t fire during non-combat move (it’s in the rulebook under AAA). Kinda stupid.

Since Japan goes after UK, I have to figure out all the best move for UK first before I can figure in Japan. Since learning computer programming, so I’ll take me a while to do by hand.

I’m still trying to determine what’s the best Axis strategy is for victory.

Let recap by saying 2nd ed, board game, RR, and let’s say no new IC to simplify matter a little.

Best Russian move turn 1 is to stack Karelia with 19 Inf, 3 Armor, & 2 Fighter, Cau 1 Inf.

So question is what is the best German move on T1. Most “expert” say slow-steady Africa strat; eg.
3 Fighter 1 Sub 1 Tran attack North Sea fleet of 1 BB 1 Sub 2 Trans
1 Fighter 1 Sub vs Gibraltar 1 BB
1 Fighter vs E Can Trans
1 Bomber vs Iraq Sub
Reinforce Libya to 4 Inf 1 Armor for the massive Egypt attack with 5+ Inf etc.

So the odd of the air force surviving are as followed (number in parentheses are at least this many fighters):
5 Fighters 28.9% (28.9%)
4 Fighters 23.7% (52.6%)
3 Fighters 12.0% (64.6%)
2 Fighters 4.4% (69.0%)
1 Fighters 0.8% (69.8%)
0 Fighters 30.2%

If you lose 3 or more fighters, you lost the game. So 35.4% of the time, you lost the game after Germany first turn. Of course, even if you do survive with all fighters, the “expert” say you’ll going to lose 90% of the time anyway. (Still working on my depth analysis to arrive at that)

Let’s contrast that with the “suicidal” attack on Karelia (11 Inf, 7 Armor, 5 Fighter, 1 Bomber vs 19 Inf, 3 Armor, 2 Fighters and AAA).

The odd of at least one Armor and this many Air surviving – odd recalculated to including AAA effect (number in parentheses are at least this many air)
6 Air 11.0% (11.0%)
5 Air 11.8% (22.8%)
4 Air 7.6% (30.4%)
3 Air 5.5% (35.9%)
2 Air 4.6% (40.5%)
1 Air 3.8% (47.3%)
0 Air 55.8%

Now, I believe if Germany lose 2 or less airplanes (30.4%), Axis will goes on to win. If Germany lose 4+ airplanes (64.2%) Axis will lose the game.

That’s still a much better odd than the “slow-and-steady” Africa push.

Some stated that what’s the fun in the game if you’re betting it all on one attack (eg 1/3 the time Germany capture Karelia with most air intact and win, or else lose). Well, the same argument can be made for the UK naval attack. What’s the fun in the game if 1/3 the time, you’ll lose most of your air and lost the game. It doesn’t make any difference if the war is one battle or 3 battles.

That’s said, I still don’t believe the Allies will win 90% of the time. How???

Pretty sure my odd calculator is okay.
See above for the odd of the air force surviving AAA.
Let’s say one die, so Ger have 11 Inf, 7 Armor, 4 Fighter, 1 Bomber. The total “attack number”–#require to hit time unit type-- is 48=>8 kills.
Russia have 15 Inf, 3 Armor, 2 Fighter with an attack number of 44=>7 kills.
Combat rd 2, Ger have 4 Inf 7 Armor 4 Fighter 1 Bomber for an attack number of 41=>7 kills. Rus have 7 Inf 3 Armor 2 Fighter for an attack number of 28=>5 kills.
Combat rd 3, Ger have 6 Armor 4 Fighter 1 Bomber for an attack number of 34=>6 kills. Rus have 3 Armor 2 Fighter for an attack number of 14=>2 kills.
Thus Ger capture Karelia with all air intact (except the one lost to AAA) and 4 Armor.

Granted, this example round the kills off and that one extra or one less unit may make a big difference in combat. But I’m pretty sure of the overall odd.

Now if Russia stack 19 Inf in Karelia, I believe the odd drop to ~20% for capturing with all air intact and ~30% with 3 fighters left. Ain’t great odd, but sure is better than never winning as Axis.

If Rus stack Karelia and Germany don’t want to roll the dice sac-cing Kar, then best bet is EV. Which equate to quickly capture Africa and Asia, then, strategically (eg use the rule loophole where EV is calculated at the end of US turn), Ger try to capture the Eur-Asia to get the extra 6-9 IPC needed for EV.

I’m still trying to crunch the number for this.

Ukr & Fin are gone for Ger. Cau is out of reach. E Eur is an arm race between Rus & Ger. Basically, Ger need to build more Inf than Rus so E Eur can be held.

So Ger is left ignoring Rus T1 and concentrating on UK.
The 2 options are

1. play it safe and build up in Africa (eg buy tran, non-combat 2 Inf, don’t attack Egypt), strafe all Brit navy.
2. play it risky and invade both Iraq & Egypt–to capture the suez canal and swing the tran to the Red Sea.

Been crunching the number for option 2 (in fact, posted a topic for that strat). Still don’t know the prob of Axis winning–I think it was down to the 20% or less number.

AAA is taken into account. For 6 planes, 33% all will survive, 41% only one will die, 26% 2 or more will die.

50% is better than <10% that most say that’s the chance of Axis winning against a “good” Allies player. As I state in my other topic, I’m a newbie and have only play a handful of games, so haven’t been privy to these “expert” player. Just looking for way to Axis to win at a better than 10% against them, whenever I find them.

If Russia opt to abandon Kar & Cau with withdrawing most force into Moscow first turn, Germany doesn’t need to sac Kar. He’ll turn his full force and attention on the Brit and Africa since he no longer need to worry about defending E Eur & Ukr. He will send just enough to capture Kar & Cau (treating them as dead zone), build up inf to do an inf push toward Moscow and still have enough to drop a large number of troop into Africa along with knocking out the entire Brit navy. Methink Rus abandonning Kar & Cau on first turn is a bad bad move.

If Russia pull back from the Eastern Front (eg R1, move 2Inf to Russia, 3Inf Arm to Novo, 1 Inf Yakut, 1 Inf Far East), Jap will easily capture Yakut & Far East with Yakut as a dead zone for both Jap & Rus until Jap Turn 2, at which point, he’ll hold Yakut. This will force Rus to pull back even more, thus losing Eventl & Novo by Turn 2. With that little income, Rus won’t hold long, so there’s no need for Ger to sac Kar turn 1. Again, Germany will inf push toward Moscow in this scenario.

Wild2000 Also, going along the scenario you describe, the UK player can make up for the Russian mistakes. Since Germany did not attack the UK navy, it can counter whatever takes Karelia with 2 INF, 2-3 FTR, 1 BMB, 1 Battleship. This should be enough to at least clear Germany from Karelia, allowing Russia to retake easily.

Assuming Ger capture Kar & Cau turn 1. Brit will most likely recapture Kar on B1 (odd range from 23% against 5 Ger Unit–which is really really rare- to 99.9% against 1 Ger unit). If Brit doesn’t recapture Kar, Rus can’t since he only have one Armor in Novo to try to recapture Kar. Since prob is high that UK recapture Kar on B1, question is should Rus build in Kar. Answer is no, it’s a dead zone. Germany have at least 2 Inf & 8 Armor, plus whatever air is left. He’ll easily recapture Kar with 5+ unit left. Russia have nothing left (Jap will strafe the Rus unit on the Eastern Front). UK won’t be able to recapture Kar, etc.

Wild2000 Without excellent Axis dice and poor Allied play, it is very hard to take Moscow by T4.

Axis dice roll–don’t care, that’s what the probability analysis is for.
Poor Allied play–that’s what this forum is for, need to hear what is expert Allied play.

2nd ed rule board game, Russia Restricted, no other variant (eg no bidding, no 2-hit BattleShip).

Overview: UK and US need 2 turns to build up its transport fleet and another 2 turns to succssfully reinforce Russia either directly or by pressuring Europe/Africa. If the Axis can capture Russia by turn 4 or 5, UK & US won’t be able to liberate Russia, thus allowing Germany to strengthen Europe, etc and win the game.

Russia on turn 1 have 3 choices

1. Defend Caucasus & Karelia,
2. Abandon Caucasus and defend Karelia only,
3. Get really cocky and move troop eastward toward Japan.
   The 4th option of heavily defending Soviet Far East is death for Russia since Japan will wipe out all Russian troop on the Eastern Front with little loss, thus now have a free passage to Moscow.

Now, if Russia goes with #1 and say defends Cau with 5 Inf, leaving 15 Inf, 3Armor and 2 Fighter in Karelia. (1 Armor in Novo, 6 Inf Yakut, 1 Inf Soviet Far East).

Germany buy 6 Armors, save 2 IPC.

Germany will then sac everything against Russia.
Against Karelia, bridge 2 Inf W Eur and attack with 4 Armor 5 Fighter 1 Bomber. 57% Ger win with at least 1 armor & all air left with 14% Ger will still have 4 Armor.
Against Caucasus, send the BB & Trans with 2 Inf (S Eur) and 3 Armor. 89% of the time Ger win with at least 1 Armor. 56%, he win with 3 Armor surviving.
Send the W Eur sub against the E Can tran (75% kill tran)
Attack Egypt and Africa, etc. Egypt is 51% chance of capturing.
NonCombat 2 Inf into W Eur from Ger and 4 Fighter.
Move 2 Armor, 2 Inf in E Europe
Place 6 Armor, 1 Fighter, 1 Bomber in Ger

After the Germany turn, Russia have exactly nothing in Russia and only 1 Armor in Novo. UK can try to recapture Karelia with 1 Tran & 2 Inf and whatever air it like.

Japan buy IC in Manchuria & 2 Armor.
Combat weakest of China-Yakut-India.
Send only sea against Pearl Harbor.
NonCombat the Armor into Manchuria and land all air onto Asia.

Turn 2,
Russia probably abandon Karelia because of the 3 Armor in Caucasus. So buy and place 8 Inf in Russia, retreating the Armor into Russia.
She’ll retreat the 6 Inf in Yakut into Novo.

Germany, if still holding Karelia, buy 3 Inf and as many armor as possible. If not holding Karelia, buy all armor. At this point Germany should be able to capture Karelia with 8+ units surviving, making any recapturing attempts impossible.

Buy 5 armor (3 in Manchuria, 2 in Japan)
Japan will sac her entire air and whatever land can reach Novo.
Then noncombat 2 Armor into Machuria.
After Turn 2, she’ll have 5 Armor in Manchuria, 1 Armor and some Inf in Yakut.

Turn 3, Russia can’t do jack, have very little money, possibly only enough for 4 Inf, maybe less if Germany & Japan SBR on turn 2. So in Russia is still only 12 Inf & 1 Armor plus whatever air UK & US can provide.

Germany on Turn 3 can build Inf to defend against Normandy, SBR Russia, and move the rest of the Armor up to cau. So that’s ~16 Armor and 6 Inf on Moscow doorstep.

Japan Turn 3 will SBR Russia and move the 5 armor in Manchuria as far as possible toward Moscow. At turn end, she’ll have 6 armor and some inf on Moscow doorstep.

Turn 4, Russia can’t do jack and have even less money. So will have 12-16 Inf with UK/US air.

Germany Turn 4, attack with 16 Armor & 6 Inf and all air. If she doesn’t capture Moscow, Japan will capture on her turn.

If on UK/US Turn 4 they don’t land in W Eur or E Eur, Germany then will turtle up and fortify Fortess Europa. Send land unit south via Cau-Persia. Japan can easily survive any US Pacific fleet.

I haven’t quite work out all the odd, but it look like at least 33% chance, reaching maybe as high as 50% that Axis can capture Russia by Turn 4.

What’dya think???

If UK vacate India, Jap attacks are

1. China w/ 5 Inf 2 Fighter (2 Inf Kwatung 3 Inf Manchuria, Fighter from Manchuria & Japan)
2. Siakiang w/ 2 Inf 1 Fighter from Burma
3. India w/ 2 Inf from Phillipines.
4. Pearl Harbor w/ air & sub only.
   Buy is standard 2 trans 3 inf.
   NonCombat 2Inf from Japan to Burma.
   This collapse Russia Southern Front and also dare Russia to go strong into Manchuria (sucker move for Rus since Japan can recapture and wipe out all force in Manchuria w/ min lost).

But I agree w/ other that this strategy is risky for Axis. They risk losing 2 Inf & 1 Armor in Africa on turn 1, thus necessitating even more Inf investment on Turn 2 & 3 to capture Africa. This strategy can pretty much be summed up as: 24% of the time, Germany capture Egypt & Iraq with no loss. If they get that lucky, they should go on and win the game. If they don’t, they’ll go down in flame fast.

After Axis capture Gibraltar, Allies can’t suicide attack Germany fleet since there’s no place to land. Even if there is, there’s that much left attacking/defending Europe. So concentrate too much in Africa, you’ll lose Russia. Concentrate too much in Europe, you’ll lose Africa.

If UK tran the 2 Inf from India on Turn 1, they gave up India without a fight. Japan will move her entire fleet south (1 Tran from Philippine to India, the other Tran from Japan to IndoChina). Turn 2, India->South Africa, IndoChina->Egypt/Iraq/E Africa. Also, Jap will now push Rus from the south via India->Siakang instead of Kakut->E Russia.

If UK/US land in Algeria Turn 1, those 2 Trans are sitting duck. Grant, UK/US now have 2 Inf & 1 Arm in W Africa (probability is only 60% of Armor surviving against Ger Inf). If US buy 2 Trans to transport 4 Inf or 2 Inf & 1 Armor to Africa on Turn 2, those 2 Trans will then be sitting duck. Kiss Normandy good-bye for another 3-5 turns. Without Allies pressure on Europe, Germany, by Turn 3, will have enough Inf to push Russia.

I’ll try Allies-heavy in Africa tonight and see how that pan out. Just have a lot of misgivings in abandonning India and sacrificing 2 Trans to land in W Africa on Turn 1.

Germany best chance for victory had always been Africa. The only question is whether to use the optimal strategy and build up in Africa before attacking or to gamble and hit Egypt/Iraq first turn. Allies best strategy is delay Africa/Asia until the conveyor belt start going.

In an EV, it’s the IPC at the end of US turn that count. Turn 5 is if UK & US build IC in Asia. If they don’t, it’s an Axis EV by Turn 4.

Since Russia move before both Germany & Japan, it’s very simple to counter any Russian inf move eastward. Remember, you don’t care about being able to defend next turn, so you attack enough to capture. Just how many inf do you propose Russia should move eastward?

In regard to Pearl Harbor, since the battle only last 4-5 turns, don’t care too much about Jap Fighter. BB is more important because of the number of invasions that may be necessary (eg India, Australia, Alaska). Purpose of Pearl Harbor is not to kill off everything, it’s just to kill of the CV. The sub can be picked off later and the fighter is practically useless.

If US UK land troops in Africa, first, there won’t be much time to recapture Africa (Allies may capture Algeria, Libya, W Africa,C Africa for 4 IPC). Even with that lost, Axis can capture 20 IPC (assuming lost of Finland and Ukraine). So the only need 7 more. So that can try to capture Ukraine, Caucasus, and one of the 3 ter east of Russia or they can try to capture Ukraine and 2 of the 3 east of Russia. There’s no way Russia can defend all 5 territories (Ukr, Cau, and the 3 east of Russia). US & UK may help with Ukr/Cau, but that’s doubtful on turn 4. US won’t have time to recapture Australia/Hawaii. And if they pump troop into W USA to maybe recapture Alaska, that’s all the less troop in Normandy.

I presume the 90% Allies victory strategy is the “Conveyor Belt” method? The conveyor belt won’t stop this strategy (granted, it’s a do-or-die by Germany Turn 1. Capture Suez or die).

You’re right, can’t blitz through neutral. Then take the fighter attacking Egypt and use that to attack the sub in the Iraq sz. Leave the BB in S Eur sz to protect the built tran. Invade Spain with an Inf instead of the armor.

Capturing suez canal probability is 57% and being victorious in all battle with all fighters intact drop from 40% to 24%. Not great, but greater than 0%.

EV is possible by Turn 5. So how does the Allies stop this?