Why Sealion Doesn't Work (Maybe) (edit - in 1942 Online)


  • I wrote at the beginning I didn’t intend to write out detailed projections with numbers and that I fully intended to leave a lot unaddressed.

    By now you can perhaps see why this is my usual practice; I try to at least give enough that newer players will understand there is real reasoning behind claims I make, yet not so much that they’re swamped with branches, contingencies, statistical breakdowns, and the like. More experienced players get a few key details to consider for their own projections, but a lack of detailed projections shouldn’t be an issue as they should be running their own projections anyways. It’s really only players that want some sort of flowchart that will be disappointed, but oh well.

    The real question now is will Board Game Nation release a Sealion video, and what will be in it?

    I predict some mixture of Baltic defensive navy (perhaps a destroyer) and transports, and Mediterranean fleet captures Gibraltar. Transports are how Germany tries to push UK into building ground instead of air, which means less UK options against a potential German unified fleet (or even against the Baltic fleet if Germany’s Med fleet retreats to Med). I think US1 build of carrier/fighters and flying 2 fighters to East Canada will be correctly predicted. I think USSR1 fighter on Archangel may not be predicted. That last is only a guess, but I did feel Mr. Blevins was optimistic about Sealion’s mathematical projections based on informal comments, and though under some dice outcomes it’s very reasonable to argue USSR should leave a fighter on Archangel, there’s also reasonable argument that under other dice outcomes USSR shouldn’t leave a fighter on Archangel.

    And though there’s a really lengthy argument against Sealion that involves complications (remember this thread is not the “lengthy argument”, this is sort of like 40% of the Cliff Notes version) I don’t think Mr. Blevins will get into that, not because of any shortcoming, but you can see by watching some videos that he respects the viewers’ time.

    So will he decide to do a narrow focus on one particular version of Sealion, which will be relatively short, entertaining, and give viewers things to consider?

    Or will he try to actually address everything starting from the ground up, and end up with something that, well, let’s just say it would be complicated.

    I have a lot of respect for Mr. Blevins and the quality of his work, but I have to wonder. 23 years after Don Rae’s essays, is this really the moment when someone finally advances the common discourse with proper mathematically supported analysis of Axis and Allies lines of play for common discussion? Is this when we finally take the first big step beyond Don’s Essays? Seems a lot to hope for, and I don’t mean because Don Rae is an iconic unknowable legend or whatever mysticism. I mean you read Don Rae’s essays once you have some understanding of the mathematics and principles, you see how much he left unsaid that he obviously understood. For 23 years and counting nobody including Don decided to go beyond that point.

    http://donsessays.freeservers.com/axisand.htm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xYXUeSmb-Y

    Exciting, isn’t it? But let’s not try to pile too much on with the expectations.

    I predict the video will have Japan sending airforce to Europe. Not just because I think that’s what Japan should always do against KGF, but there’s a lot of stuff I left unsaid about how the Axis best pursue their options. But I think though the Axis actions may be reasonably predicted, I am not so sure about the Allies. Like the point I made about US blocking a German fleet holed up in the Baltic, just dig up any talk about Sealion in 1942 Second Edition or 1942 Online and where do you see talk of the specific timing and costs of Germany’s Baltic fleet, the timing of a US destroyer blocker, the timing and placement of Japan’s air, how it strains Japan to deny US the destroyer block which requires Japanese air far in the west of Europe, how exactly Japan’s attack on India plays out - I mean, the details are not there in common discussions.

    Again, not that I’m an original thinker, as far as I’m concerned other players figured it all out years ago but just never bothered to write it down. But it wasn’t written down anywhere I know of. So?

    My final prediction is what projections are run will be limited to the first 7 rounds-ish. Again, it’s just a guess, but if you have an optimistic opinion of Sealion, round 4 is right about when Germany looks really fantastic with loads of what seem to be good options. It’s only after the early Allied purchases and strategy start to catch up and Axis starts getting choked out and countered that things start to go downhill, but with accurate play by both sides the resolution can get pushed back, By about round 7, the Axis position shouldn’t be picked apart by any means, but there should definitely be some areas of concern that the Axis need to worry about, and the longer you run reasonable projections, the more you see UK/US building up transports, dropping units into Finland/Norway, breaking into and holding Karelia (especially with USSR’s help), then reinforcing Russia with cost-effective ground units. And Germany’s Baltic fleet gets stranded, it can’t reasonably be reinforced as Germany’s already weakened its stacks horribly and Germany can’t even drop carriers for Japanese fighters, it just starts getting very questionable the longer it goes. (Again, if talking about a transposition pushing the German Baltic fleet into Mediterranean, trying that line of play would have been better to build a G1 Med carrier in the first place. If it was about a German Med carrier it would be about a German Med carrier, but it’s about Sealion, which is Baltic, so why even talk about the inferior transposition if the emphasis is elsewhere? If you’re thinking about the possibility of testing an opponent for accurate play and reasonable Axis outcomes then your game looks great at round 4, reasonable at round 7, that’s where I predict the emphasis will be as I think it’ll be an optimistic view of Sealion outcomes. After round 7 is about when various Allied options can really start to build up pressure, maybe even a real squeeze, so that’s why I think the emphasis of the video won’t be there. But who knows? Maybe I missed something.

    (Provided the Allies undertake reasonable lines of play btw.)

    Well, we’ll just have to see won’t we.

    Board Game Nation hype!


  • @aardvarkpepper - Wow! I appreciate your interest and respect for our work.

    Here is a link to the video you referenced regarding a Turn 2 Axis victory using a Sea Lion attack. [https://youtu.be/fh7OZV3x4l4](link url)

    This game was against the Beamdog AI, which clearly didn’t make the best moves, but my goal with the video was to make some strategic points and show some “what not to do” moments. To that end, I feel like the video has been successful.

    The amount of thought and research that has gone into your comment is truly impressive. At some point in the future, Board Game Nation will be making a full KUKF strategy video that will include the math and my rationale for why I think a Sea Lion attack does work. To be clear upfront, for me, “working” doesn’t necessarily mean taking London. It means focusing pressure in such a way that it forces the Allies to make purchases and position units in a way that isn’t strategically advantageous to them in the short or long term.

    In the end, I might be wrong, but I think there is value in giving players strategic choices that will allow them to play the way that best suits them. After all, the goal is to enjoy trying to solve the puzzle.


  • I’ll certainly be looking forward to Board Game Nation’s upcoming series.

    For this next part of the thread, I’ll start with the assumption we know Sealion works, we just have to figure out why.

    There’s a lot of assumptions in this part.

    Say we assume Sealion isn’t just a noob strainer. Say also Sealion is a conditional line of play dependent on R1 dice results, buys, and moves. Most lines of play work on some level given that much.

    What conditions?

    Let’s say R1 buy 4 infantry 2 tanks, 12 units to West Russia, 9 units to Ukraine, USSR destroys the German bomber on Ukraine but not the fighter then retreats to Caucasus, USSR does well at West Russia, USSR lands two fighters on Caucasus.

    What’s the Allied strength in that position? We’re basically saying USSR has a chunk more land units than normal, a strong R2 attack/retreat option into Karelia (or any territory next to West Russia).

    With a G1 11 inf 2 art open we want to choke out USSR income by holding Karelia as soon as possible, then Ukraine perhaps G4. But that means holding two different territories against USSR’s main stack on West Russia, that is disadvantaged under this scenario. USSR having so many tanks also means they’ll be able to threaten both Germany and Japan simultaneously when they get close to Russia.

    Why are USSR’s fighters parked on Caucasus? I mentioned earlier USSR may want to park a fighter on Archangel. But depending on surviving units at Ukraine, Germany may be able to hit Caucasus with a lot. USSR’s AA guns may be needed at West Russia, and USSR fighters can’t land on West Russia.

    Suppose you’re looking for a Germany opening that will play against the Allied position. If R1 had horrible dice for Allies, Axis could do a good-odds tank dash, then that might be an option, but we’re saying the opposite happened. Ideally Germany wants to choke off USSR income at Ukraine around G4, but that isn’t favored in this setup. Besides. suppose you also think your opponent plays accurately against G1 11 inf 2 art open. What do you do in this setup?

    Maybe Sealion.

    Instead of Germany trying to build up and move units to break a combined Allied stack near Russia, Germany tries only to prevent a USSR main stack advance. Germany goes immediately after USSR so can counter any major stack shift before Allied fighters can reinforce. Holding at Karelia prevents cheap UK/US land units from joining up with USSR, and prevents USSR’s main stack from moving closer to Germany than Ukraine. (If USSR’s main stack advances to Poland, say, assuming Berlin is well defended, Germany’s Karelia stack can advance to West Russia, threatening Russia, and USSR Poland’s stack can’t return to defend Russia in time).

    Instead of Germany trying to choke off USSR’s income at Ukraine, Germany accepts USSR is going to get more income there. To balance that, Germany tries to secure its Norway/Finland income until later in the game, and does what it can in Africa.

    UK’s India stack will be a problem. If Germany can reliably press forward into USSR, then eventually Germany claims Caucasus, cutting off UK’s India stack. But here, UK’s India stack is never threatened by Germany; UK can hold as long as possible at India, increasing UK’s India stack by 3 every turn. When that UK stack shifts into Europe, that’ll mean more UK income and pressure on Karelia.

    What will Axis have to do? Hold Karelia, push for fast Axis income, play the long game. Try to simultaneously credibly threaten London and West Russia, control Baltic with sea/air enough that Germany doesn’t have to deal too much with Allied landings in Europe.

    What will Allies have to do? Push a UK stack into West Russia to lock Germany/Japan to Karelia. (If Germany moves its main stack off, then UK can wipe out Japan air before it can move. If Japan moves its air off, perhaps USSR can smash Germany before Germany moves.)

    I’ll try a few turns in TripleA, using 1942 Online’s changes. (So though you can use allied transports/carriers in TripleA normally I won’t do it.)


  • Note: I decided not to reroll things, just play through.

    R1 buy: 4 inf 2 art. Cmove 12 to WRus, 9 Ukr. Retreated from Ukr to Cauc. Took low casualties at W Rus, lost no tanks at Ukr, left German tank and fighter alive on Ukr. Move only one AA to W Rus.

    https://imgur.com/dSznOWn

    G1 buy: 1 destr 2 trn 1 car 1 inf. USSR has 19 dice into Karelia. Cmove Baltic States inf to Karelia, Italy inf via trn to Gibraltar, sub and fighter to UK cruiser.

    Bit of weirdness here, not sure if it’s “correct”, but playing fast and loose anyways. Thought about sending sub after US East fleet, but instead of Germany’s fleet being disposable here I’m trying to preserve it.

    Submerged USSR sub first round; normally better to leave unsubmerged first round but I’m restricting options by 1942 Online’s changes to the game.

    https://imgur.com/JQp9CZl

    Notice the German sub/fighter got wiped against UK cruiser. This was not likely to happen (6.6% chance of this result or worse happening), but players need to be prepared for variations from dice outcomes and opponent decisions.

    Here, Germany doesn’t need to fortify Morocco to preserve the German fighter (as it’s destroyed already), freeing its units in Africa to be at Libya. This moves Germany’s development at Africa up a turn. Germany would much rather have the fighter, but oh well.

    For UK turn, we look at destroying the Baltic fleet and the battleship.

    http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=&aArt=&aArm=&aFig=2&aBom=1&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=&dArt=&dArm=&dFig=2&dBom=&dTra=3&dSub=&dDes=1&dCru=&dCar=1&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-Fig-HBom-Sub-SSub-Car-Des-Cru-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

    AACalc gives 30% to clear the defenders then USSR sub can finish off. That would be a massive loss to Germany. Under normal rules, UK could purchase a carrier and destroyer, place east of London, then USSR would have a followup of sub and 2 fighters, giving an excellent followup. But in 1942 Online you can’t do that. The only followup is a sub, which will win against a lone destroyer 1/3 of time (both destroyed 1/3 but that would leave German transports alive). Still, it’s about 30% for Allies to wipe Germany’s Baltic fleet, 19% for German destroyer and transports to survive, then 1/3 of that 19% for the German fleet to be wiped with USSR’s followthrough. So about 36% for a winning position.

    http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=&aArt=&aArm=&aFig=&aBom=1&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=1&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=&dArt=&dArm=&dFig=&dBom=&dTra=1&dSub=&dDes=&dCru=&dCar=&dBat=1&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

    UK has about 75% to clear the battleship with destroyer/bomber. It’s a low dice count high unit value battle, and there are no followthroughs.

    Which does UK take? If the Allies player feels they’re losing, they might want to take the 36%. 75% looks pretty good, but it’s not certain that the German battleship is really a threat, so think things out.

    What about hitting the Baltic fleet? Germany has 3 inf 3 tnk 5 fig into London. Hitting the fleet kills German fighters first, reducing the German threat against London. But also, removing Germany fighters will restrict Germany’s options later on in a big way. Tactically, hitting the fleet is perhaps questionable, but strategically it’s not the worst.

    How do we know German fighters die first? If destroyer dies first, USSR followup beats a carrier 60/40, and it’s a big payout. Germany probably doesn’t want that to happen. If carrier dies first, Germany retreats after having destroyed an expensive carrier and perhaps some air, Germany lands fighters, then USSR followup has 33% shot at destroying the entire fleet, plus Germany is out a carrier (and Germany is really pressed for income with this setup, like all right it can buy more if it must, but Germany doesn’t want to). Ideally the defender would see how many hits were rolled and could make appropriate decisions, but 1942 Online doesn’t let you do that.

    What about hitting the battleship? Tactically it looks better with better odds, but strategically it’s not such a great thing for Germany. When UK and US combine fleets, Germany’s battleship won’t be of too much use; it’ll certainly be useful, but it won’t be flexible like Germany’s fighters.

    So the decision is made, hit Germany’s Baltic fleet. Note that regardless of the actual result in this game, Germany probably loses about 36% of the time if UK decides to go with this attack. (I mean, maybe Germany can come back from the position after the Baltic fleet is destroyed, but I wouldn’t give it good chances).

    What should UK buy? 9 infantry 1 artillery is the “safe” buy, 7 infantry 1 fighter the “greed” buy. (A fighter helps UK threaten the German navy). Assume we take 3 units off for India.

    If the Baltic attack fails badly, Germany will have perhaps 3 inf 3 tnk 4 fighter to hit London with, against greed defense of 1 AA 1 bmb (US) 6 inf 1 art 1 tnk 1 fig.

    https://aacalc.freezingblue.com/?rules=1942&battleType=land&roundCount=all&attInfantry=3&attTank=3&attFighter=4&defAAGun=1&defInfantry=6&defArtillery=1&defTank=1&defFighter=1&defBomber=1&defOOL=GBIATF

    This is only about 1/3 successful for the German attackers, and if they lose, they lose, Germany’s air will be decimated and there’s no followthrough.

    But we can’t just leave it at that. We need to think about the possibility G2 goes 7 trn. UK will be completely unable to attack the Baltic fleet at that point (no odds). But US can reinforce with 4 fighters from E Can/E US, UK can build 8 land units, and we can expect perhaps another 3 fighters from West Russia by the time Germany can follow through. 14 attackers against 15 defenders, with high fighter count for favorable skew for defender, I’m not going to bother to calculate that (though really I should).

    But let’s think through the UK greed buy. Okay, maybe UK can get away with it, but suppose the Baltic attack fails. How useful will another UK fighter be, strategically? Well, we know it can threaten the German Atlantic fleet with reinforcements from the India/Egypt region, it can be used to trade territory if the Allies ever land in Europe, fighters can be stuck on Allied carriers, and though maybe UK doesn’t need a third fighter for that, leaving a fighter free for Africa/India gives UK much better options. Though a UK bomber would be better, whatever.

    What else could we do with those IPCs? Well, London needs ground for defense if Germany builds transports. Otherwise, fighters can threaten navy and defend London (ideal). Otherwise, submarines if US blocks Germany’s fleet, so UK can get a cheap shot at Germany’s navy. But we’re really not at the point that we need to be thinking about UK submarines yet, Germany doesn’t even have that much of a war fleet at Baltic and US isn’t position etc. etc.

    Anyways, UK goes greed build of 7 inf 1 fig.

    https://imgur.com/OYYyc7o

    The UK Australia fleet heads east; it won’t arrive until late but UK will need all it can get in the Atlantic soonest.

    UK destroyer in Med goes off Caucasus. Germany’s battleship surviving means Germany can press for income in Africa, which will be quite a problem. Since the German battleship won’t go to Caucasus (probably?), the UK destroyer may be safe there, which will allow UK to build a threat against Germany’s Med battleship.

    But it’s not really a threat because the German battleship will escort the German transport to bridge to Libya, then UK fighters will have nowhere to land? True. The UK destroyer might be able to do something later.

    Why not land UK fighters at Caucasus to pressure the Med early? I think about it, but 1) UK needs to pressure the Baltic, 2) with no German fighter on Morocco, US can land units at French West Africa, 3) UK can retreat its Egypt units to the south to defend.

    Usually UK retreating Egypt units to south is pretty solid against German incursions into Africa. If Germany pushes infantry deep into Africa they’ll be stranded, and Germany wants all the units it can get near Ukraine to support a G4 Ukraine push. Even if Germany units push up through Persia and are cut off by the UK stack on India, there’s at least some possibility they’ll be relevant if they just push east.

    But here, UK retreating Egypt units south is not so great. Germany’s given up on a G4 Ukraine push, so has nothing better to do than push Africa. Still, opposing German income in Africa will be needed, so that’s what Allies will do.

    I notice I should have placed the Germany infantry at Italy instead of Berlin. Edit function’d it.


  • J1 buy 3 trn 1 inf 1 tnk. Between northeast Asia, repositioning in Asia, and pushing quickly in Africa, Japan just has a lot of nice use for tanks. Note Japan’s tanks are not like German tanks in use; German tanks are very brute force and repositioning with Germany’s massive starting stack sizes and huge tank forces, Japan’s tanks are more about opportunistically exploiting any small openings that the Allies inevitably have to leave someplace and small ability to redirect pressure. Japanese air lands at Wake.

    Usually I’ll push 1 infantry to Burma, setting up UK to start draining its UK India stack with trades (or if not, Japan gets income). But here I use all land units to hit Yunnan, trying to get enough units to deter a US counter from Szechwan, and keep 2 infantry idle at Manchuria planning to move them to Kwangtung and land fighters to deny Allied income. The Japanese transport hits Soviet Far East to start draining USSR income immediately. Pearl light (US submerges, Japan loses sub, cruiser, fighter).

    I don’t like Pearl light with a G1 11 inf 2 art open in 1942 Online. KJF is so crippled with 1942 Online’s rule changes I just don’t even think it’s necessary. Also with G1 11 inf 2 art I prefer to start trading out in Asia, get Allies to commit their forces. But here the Allies won’t be challenged by Germany nearly as much as if having used a G1 11 inf 2 art open, so I’m playing Japan more conservatively, trying to preserve Japan’s artillery in southeast Asia, etc. As to Pearl light, it’ll be a long time before the US could have gotten that fleet over to Atlantic, but every bit of power UK, US, and USSR can bring to bear on Germany accelerates Germany’s collapse in Europe, and with Japan having to go solo against India (with possible USSR reinforcement), that could mean Allies break Germany’s position in Europe while Japan is stalled at India.

    If choosing between US possibly hitting Wake or Solomons to try to get a shot on Japan’s air, I’d rather they hit Wake. Solomons is too close to southeast Asia - not that I anticipate US will try KJF (besides playing both sides, just generally a big G1 transport buy I’d guess Allies would push KGF), but still.

    US’s first decision is whether to go after Wake.

    http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=2&aArt=&aArm=&aFig=&aBom=&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=1&adBat=&dInf=1&dArt=&dArm=&dFig=1&dBom=1&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCru=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

    About 8.2% for US to win or wipe all Japanese defenders out, assuming Japan loses bomber first about another 25% to destroy the bomber. Japanese air is really great for the Axis, bombers even more so. On the minus side, a battleship and transport would be very delayed from pushing towards Atlantic, becoming relevant around US6 instead of US4. That’s a lot of lost time.

    Intuitively it seems US should not hit Wake. We know by round 4, Allies should be starting to break apart the Axis positions in Europe and Atlantic, having an extra battleship and transport in the area will certainly be helpful.

    But I think about the specific expected timing for this game. In a G1 11 inf 2 art open with normal-ish dice, Germany threatens to cut off UK’s India stack so UK is forced to withdraw pretty quickly anyways, then Japan has a guarantee to smash India early. But not in this game; besides Germany not building land units to push on Russia, the Allies rolled very well, Allies are very strong in Europe to the point USSR may even help defend India without losing too much position in Europe. Perhaps Japan will be delayed at India and won’t be able to shift its air to Europe for quite some time, meaning an Allied delay may not be as much an issue.

    US buys 2 infantry, carrier, 2 fighters, attacks Wake, destroys infantry and bomber.

    ==

    For USSR’s turn, the first thing I look at is USSR and Germany’s ability to hit and hold Karelia.

    USSR can likely trade Karelia with no issue, but holding is another matter. Germany can hit with 14 inf 10 tnk 3 fighter, USSR can perhaps get 20 units there if lucky. Plainly USSR doesn’t have near enough to try to capture and hold Karelia this round, but if USSR moves all available units to reinforce West Russia and builds all tanks, it can get 31 units there next turn. By that time, though, Germany can easily get 35 units there. No matter what USSR builds, Germany can counter-build in Berlin to be able to hit Karelia with more units. This is not as deadly to Germany as it may seem; Germany’s Baltic fleet is defending the Atlantic, reducing pressure on Germany’s ground. However, the situation may become deadly for Germany, as Germany’s already lost three fighters and its bomber between R1 to Ukraine, G1 to UK’s cruiser, and UK1 to the Baltic fleet.

    Against a G1 11 inf 2 art build I’d sit back with USSR, build up at West Russia. If Germany tries to capture and hold both Karelia and Ukraine to deny USSR income, USSR can pull a deadly attack/retreat or follow through depending on the position.

    But here, even though just about all of USSR’s infantry may die next turn, I think I may want to go all tanks. I want to challenge Germany’s ability to hold Karelia on G2, so I want to counter the 24 dice Germany can sit on Karelia with. After using 2 USSR infantry to capture Karelia this turn, I’ll be able to bring 25 units to challenge the Axis 26-stack (considering Japan can reinforce with 2 fighters), which considering all the German tanks and Japanese fighters for high skew won’t be nearly enough, even though USSR has a load of high attack dice in those 25 units. If USSR wants to pose a serious challenge, it needs all tanks.

    (BTW this is why I don’t like a R1 4 infantry 2 tank open. It’s just so easy for Axis to bulk up on Karelia on G2/J2 then USSR’s short on defense. I’d rather usually go R1 4 inf 3 art then build R2 tanks if Karelia can be challenged. But to be fair, if USSR doesn’t build tanks, and if USSR doesn’t want to retreat from Ukraine (German air is a high priority target), then USSR may not be able to prevent a G1 take and hold of Karelia, then Axis fighters land G2, then that gets ugly too.)

    I send the USSR sub to hit the German Baltic fleet. This is about as good as it’s ever going to get for whittling down the Axis fleet.

    If destroyer dies first 12.5% attacker wins, 35.34% carrier and transports only live. That translates to 12.5% horrible loss, 35.34% not great but tolerable (everything else is Axis win).

    http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=&aArt=&aArm=&aFig=&aBom=&aTra=&aSub=1&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=&dArt=&dArm=&dFig=&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=1&dCru=&dCar=1&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

    If carrier dies first, 9.1% attacker wins, 4.2% transports only live, 35.16% destroyer and transports live. Cumulatively that translates to 9.1% horrible loss for Axis, 39.36% really bad (valuable Axis carrier lost), everything else Axis win.

    http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=&aArt=&aArm=&aFig=&aBom=&aTra=&aSub=1&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=&dArt=&dArm=&dFig=&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=1&dCru=&dCar=1&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Car-Des-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

    So here what does Germany do? Losing destroyer first gives 12.5% of “horrible loss” and 35.34% really not hot but maybe tolerable. Losing carrier first gives only 9.1% of “horrible loss” then 39.36% “really bad”. The problem is, destroyers are 8, carriers are 14, carriers are just so expensive.

    I decided to play greedy with Germany and lose destroyer first. USSR wiped out the destroyer immediately, then after some rounds of rolling, eventually Germany potted the USSR submarine.

    https://imgur.com/oBqycWJ


  • Comments on the game so far:

    I don’t like how the Mediterranean is playing out for Germany. That was always going to be the case; the Allies just have too many options with UK and US in the Atlantic, and Germany just doesn’t have any real way to pressure, but even so. I think it might be better to try to push Germany’s Med fleet to Trans-Jordan early on. Very possibly not though.

    Germany lost two fighters at the Baltic and another against the UK cruiser. It’s best not to judge actions by results after the fact; the UK cruiser was a reasonable risk. But I don’t think the Baltic defense was necessarily a good idea. Without trying to judge things after the fact, Germany just didn’t have any safety margin there for losing defenders. I think it might be better to push 3 subs 2 fighters and keep the cruiser at home, and still build the destroyer so Germany ends up with a pretty healthy naval defense.

    US has the anticipated threat of 4 fighters 1 bomber against Germany’s fleet. So let’s think, suppose everything played out exactly the same way, only UK didn’t hit the German fleet. Germany could unite northwest of France with destroyer, carrier, cruiser, two fighters, battleship. UK would have 5 fighters 1 bomber, US 4 fighters 1 bomber, and USSR 1 sub. (Might be a little more for Allies really; changing the Germany move would leave UK with another cruiser). So I have to really think about whether unification northwest of France is any sort of real issue for the Allies. I don’t know that it is; the boost to Germany’s navy walks right into the fist of US’s logistics of US fighters newly produced on a carrier on US East’s sea zone.

    USSR really did get lucky at West Russia, but that was a precondition of the game start. (If I had rolled poorly I would have edited in units). USSR also got somewhat lucky at Ukraine, inflicting decent casualties and losing some units but keeping all its precious tanks, and most importantly not taking Ukraine by accident leaving USSR’s tanks vulnerable to a counter.

    US1 lucked out at Wake Island, blowing up Japan’s precious bomber. Again, not trying to judge the position after the fact, but did Japan really need to leave its units so there was no counter to US’s hitting Wake? Did Japan have to leave its navy south of Persia? For south of Persia there wasn’t any other way to get Japanese fighters in range to reinforce a G2 push on Karelia. Did Japan have to hit the UK cruiser off Kwangtung? Perhaps, but I didn’t have to do things the way I did.

    With a G1 11 inf 2 art opening with more regular dice, I’d expect Germany to be able to capture and hold Karelia on its own a lot of the time. If Japan didn’t hit Pearl in that setup, I’d leave Japanese units in range of Iwo Jima to prevent US pressuring Japan’s sea zones. With Japan’s fleets and air really having no commitments there would be plenty of power for that.

    But for this game, I wanted to put two Japanese fighters in range to reinforce a G2 push to Karelia in the face of an unusually powerful USSR. That sapped part of Japan’s naval power. Then, I used Japan’s navy to hit UK’s cruiser off Kwangtung. Along with losing Japan’s submarine and cruiser at Pearl, that left no cheap naval fodder in range to counter any US push to Wake, and actually there wasn’t any Japanese navy or air at all able to punish the push.

    So I think I misplayed. If I wanted to have a Japanese counter to Wake, I would want at least a battleship east of Japan. That could also protect newly placed Japanese transports. But I couldn’t just ignore the UK cruiser; leaving the Japanese battleship west of Japan to protect Japan’s remaining transport offloading to Asia would leave Japan’s battleship out of range of wake, and sending the Japanese transport to Soviet Far East as I did would leave it in range of the UK cruiser. I could have hit the UK cruiser with destroyer and two fighters, and probably should have done.

    Of course, US could also have lined up a W US sub build to counter any Japan counter to Wake. But considering the situation in Europe, that would have taken pressure off Germany. So I think that would have been acceptable.

    Between Axis misplays and aberrant dice, this game isn’t really a fair representation of Sealion. But Sealion games do have to have a plan in case of bad dice, and the Allies were always going to be making a run on Germany’s Baltic fleet and reducing its air. I think the game certainly isn’t going well for the Axis, but I don’t think the Axis mistakes were so unreasonably bad that the game unfairly represents the possibilities of a Sealion with some important dice favorable to Allies, so I’ll play it out some more.

    On looking at the board again during Germany’s turn, the condition of the Baltic fleet is a real issue. So maybe the game DOES unfairly represent Sealion because the Germany turn was botched.


  • The Allies can target down Germany in the Baltic, and Japan can do nothing to help. Well, that’s what happens with 1942 Online’s changes. Too bad.

    What are Germany’s options at Baltic now?

    1. Mass transport buy. UK responds with 3 fighters vs German carrier / 2 fighters, then US has a followup of 1 fighter 1 bomber, then USSR has a followup of 2 fighters. So, no.

    2. Abandon Baltic and just produce land/air. If this is done there wasn’t any point to Sealion in the first place. So, no.

    3. Build 2 destroyers to defend / hunt subs. UK builds 3 subs, either US blocks or UK splits placement. Germany’s Baltic fleet is then 2 destroyers 1 carrier 2 fighters. UK threatens with 3 submarines 3 fighters, US with 5 fighters 1 bomber, USSR 2 fighters. Germany’s Baltic fleet is dead by US3 unless Germany does a major fleet buy on G3.

    So what have we gained with the Axis by Sealion? Germany held Norway and Finland income, not bad. UK spent on air and ground instead of transports and escorts, not bad, but not nearly good. It’s not that UK had to build a glut of useless ground on London, Germany’s air is dead, Japan can’t move into place anytime soon in Europe, the Allies have a lot of freedom in the Atlantic. Just a bit too much. And soon, UK will drop a load of transports and escorts. So by round 5, in exchange for loads and loads of naval expenditure, Germany bled out against UK/US instead of USSR, USSR will be surging in Europe, and Japan won’t be doing particularly well - not badly, but considering how quickly Germany’s position will be degrading in Europe, perhaps not fast enough.

    A lot of it comes down to Germany losing that sixth fighter and losing a chunk of defense on UK1. If those had been different, the whole game would be changed.

    But really, the fact that Japanese fighters can’t land on German carriers cripples Sealion’s options. It’s sad. Well, even though there’s things to be learned from playing out this game (like Japan could press in Africa and stuff), I’ll start again switching up Axis moves.


  • Last game USSR had super rolls, and each of the Allies had lucky chip damage on Axis, made worse by inaccurate Axis play. This time I’ll switch up the Axis moves a bit. At end of Germany’s turn

    https://imgur.com/jb8MwAz

    USSR got lucky again at both West Russia and Ukraine though it was less “luck” and more a precondition for Sealion in this thread. (I actually rolled a couple bad USSR opening games that I discarded).

    Germany got lucky at the UK battleship fight, leaving a chunk of Germany submarine survivors, though that probably won’t make a big difference as UK’s East Canada destroyer can hunt Germany’s submarines.

    Otherwise, Germany played differently in the Mediterranean and Europe. Units are placed on NW Europe; UK can capture France easily but that’s an unfortunate byproduct of Germany wanting to stack NW Europe, from where units can be transported easily to Karelia (as opposed to stacking France, which doesn’t allow that option).

    Germany hit Trans-Jordan, left a tank at Italy and mobilized its infantry at Italy to threaten Africa via transport. UK can either hit Libya or the German battleship. Units at Italy could be inaccurate; UK has such incentive to destroy Germany’s battleship to prevent German income in Africa leaving units at Italy’s almost bound to be useless.

    After looking at the map, I think I have to reconsider entirely my assumption about preconditions for Sealion, and the entire implementation of Sealion I’ve been using.

    If Germany can’t capture and hold Karelia on G1 to threaten a big hit on West Russia G2 and accelerate its G3 threat with G2 Karelia production, then Allies have a lot of freedom in Africa, which is a problem as Germany’s Africa is weaker than normal with Germany keeping all its units so close to London.

    But there’s compensations for Axis because of delayed pressure on the Baltic fleet? In 1942 Online Japan can’t land fighters on German carriers, so Germany is stuck with few naval options. Even if UK delays its air a turn from W Rus to deal with Germany’s battleship, it can reposition its air to hit Germany a turn late, with the added bonus that by that time US can position a destroyer blocker and UK safely produce cheap subs.

    The kicker is even with cruiser bombard and 6 fighters, London is still not in much danger; UK can afford to build 7 infantry 1 fighter, remove its bomber from defense, and still have 28%+ to defend London. If Germany even attempts to hit London, it chances losing a chunk of irreplaceable German air and Allies have too many followup options even in case of German success.

    Next game, instead of trying to build Sealion to threaten London on G2 (useless), I’ll send German air to Africa to push UK out early, then perhaps reposition for a G3 threat against London.

    Is it enough that Germany position fighters in Africa to push UK out of Africa early and get Africa income? Must USSR also be weak in Europe for a Sealion projection to have decent Axis outcomes?

    If Germany can’t capture and hold Karelia on G1, so be it. It’s not great for Germany, but perhaps not too awful. But if Germany can’t capture and hold Karelia on G2? For a G1 11 inf 2 art open, that’s pretty bad; Germany really needs Karelia to get more local production going. 2 units might seem like a small difference but it’s not.

    But Sealion allows Germany to move units from Berlin to Karelia in one move. This seems to be a big advantage, but again, it’s not so much. Remember again the huge costs of the Baltic navy what with transports and escorts, its vulnerability to attack, turn order allowing US blocking into UK sub/air attack.

    For a while Germany benefits by being able to drop 14 IPC per carrier then land already-existing fighters; though carriers are expensive, the fighters are “free” (not really! but after a fashion). But this is offset by the fact Germany has no good flexibility with its Baltic fleet; moving the Baltic fleet northwest of France puts it in range of US air, staying at Baltic lets Germany reinforce but then UK can build mass subs and US send in a blocking destroyer. Eventually Germany runs out of fighters to put on carriers - granted, not for a long time, but with such massive investment on navy and fewer ground units in Europe, USSR is a problem.

    There are some advantages for Axis. A large Baltic fleet preserves Germany’s income at Norway and Finland, leaves Allied landings at France unsafe, and means Berlin and Baltic States don’t need defending.

    What about Germany’s improved logistics to Karelia? What about Japan?

    The problem I think at Karelia is Germany’s on the defensive rather than the offensive. Mass transport to Karelia sounds good on paper, but what do you really do with it? With so much ongoing investment in navy, do you end up sending cheap infantry/artillery to Karelia from Berlin around G3 (after a G2 build) to boost Germany’s timing threat against Karelia? But think on the timing; G1 10 land units on Berlin, G2 to Baltic States, G3 Karelia. Or G1 Baltic fleet, G2 transport perhaps 4-6 units to Karelia, G3 6 units? Germany’s not appreciably ahead and Ukraine is soft; on later turns Germany needs to keep investing in fleet.

    Then what about Japan? Germany doesn’t threaten to cut off UK’s India stack, USSR has some room to mess about in Europe, possibly freeing USSR land or Allied air to go to India. It’s not going to be great for the Allies to do that (multnational forces are good for defense but lousy on attack) but there’s compensation for the Allied inefficiency; every turn of delay at India means another 3 units on UK’s India stack and 3 less for Japan.

    Still, we can perhaps assume India eventually falls to Japan’s 8 units from Tokyo a turn. But then what? The multinational Allied force retreats into Europe, which was already unstable for the Axis, and the Allies will have been building pressure on the Baltic fleet the entire time. Once Germany’s Baltic fleet is broken, the Allies start landing almost immediately. Again, this is not doom and gloom projections, it’s simply what’s expected; US wants to have a carrier to accelerate its timings on US fighter reinforcements to London, the Allies have a load of airpower they used to break the German Baltic fleet in the first place, an Allied destroyer and carrier suffice to get transports in the water.

    What I’m getting at is - perhaps I’m missing the timing on Sealion or a key concept somewhere. But where, exactly?

    Even if Germany changes to a G3 threat to London instead of G2 and breaks into Africa income, the exposed Baltic is still vulnerable to the Allies, Germany still can’t get any Japanese reinforcements to its navy under 1942 Online’s rule changes, the Axis will be soft against Ukraine and India, the Allies have loads of fighters it can move in for emergency defense, while the Axis simply cannot unite Germany and Japan at all effectively. Oh, Japan can still move its air to Europe, no question, but there was also the question of the India / Ukraine / West Russia / Caucasus region which is now gone.

    A problem with so-called “analysis” absent comprehensive actual numbers is, the prejudices of the writer come out. Because a writer doesn’t see how a plan can work, they assume it cannot work, even if it does actually work.

    But though I’m keenly aware of that problem, I still have to think. All right, I’m used to infantry push attrition stack building / stack bleeding. Sure. And I learned variations of multiple threat mechanics, which plays out quite differently. And I think neither are enough to get Sealion working.

    So what is this, a third way to think about Axis and Allies? But how? If you look at the concept of multiple threat mechanics, you could say theoretically Sealion pressures bad Allied responses because it simultaneously pressures London and West Russia (once Karelia is established). But you look at the vulnerability of the Baltic sea zone, you look at Allied options, you look at the fact Japan can’t reinforce at all with 1942 Online’s changed mechanics. What are you left with? Really, what are you left with? Is it something other than attrition or multiple threat? Or is it really multiple threat and I’m missing something? How?

    For example, if someone said “oh look, aardvark, you’re missing THIS IMPORTANT BIT where Japan captures and holds Karelia!” I’d be like “oh, fantastic, that changes everything”. Because you have a Karelia Japan IC, then Japan can start popping out ICs locally and land existing fighters, and Baltic defense can go into overtime. But you’d need to have something big like that, I think, and if you think it’s easy for Japan to secure Karelia, well, it’s not.

    I can play it out some more, but I expect things to go the way they have been. Germany can’t seriously invade London against a competent player. Not only that, but I believe Allied responses to Sealion don’t even require significant Allied sacrifices. I mean, yes, the Allied timeline does change, but it’s more of a “this is a different game” than “the Allies needed to make a sacrifice that set them back”. Germany holds Norway/Finland for quite a while longer, UK/US landings in Europe are certainly delayed. There’s a whole bit with German Baltic submarines in later turns I haven’t even gotten into with these projections yet. But even though the Allies definitely are set back, so too are the Axis. I think the balance given competent Allied play is in favor of the Allies.

    Again, it could just be I’m just missing something important.

    I think I’ll run through at least one more with TripleA, see what happens with G1 fighters to Africa. Perhaps have R1 capture Ukraine too, and precondition a game in which G1 captures and holds Karelia. It really is such an issue that Germany has no credible threat to West Russia on G2; it gives the Allies so much freedom to simultaneous develop threats on the Baltic flee while also defending London.


  • OK, so this game I’m presupposing G1 has a take and hold of Karelia. What needs to happen? R2’s threat to Karelia is West Russia survivors (probably including 2 artillery 1 tank), probably 2 USSR fighters, and any R1 tank build.

    We’ll assume USSR went 9 units to Ukraine (not that I’m recommending that but I’ve heard it’s the meta so whatever, plus it plays into our presupposition) and captured Ukraine (which I’ve also heard is the meta). It’ll be a little weird landing two USSR fighters on Caucasus as they’re not strictly needed but we’ll attribute that to Allied player’s risk profile.

    G1 to Karelia (with Ukraine and W Russia lost) is 7 infantry 4 tanks plus one transport’s worth of units (whether inf/AA, inf/tank, or two inf). What sort of USSR attack can that fend off?

    Let’s say R2 to Karelia is 2 fighters, 1 tank, 2 artillery, 7 infantry, plus whatever R1 tank build. AACalc gives about 31.47% for USSR to have that or worse. (So probably USSR will be better, but again, this is a precondition for Sealion, so if USSR has better than Germany just does something else).

    https://aacalc.freezingblue.com/

    Let’s take R1 2 tank and G1 transport inf/AA first. AA means USSR has to risk fighters to even attempt the attack. Attacker has 56.2% to win, but can of course withdraw earlier to safety to preserve USSR’s valuable tanks then move up infantry reinforcements. So that is not really nice for Germany.

    Switching to G1 transport inf/tank reduces attacker to 55% (note David Skelly’s calculator doesn’t run that many iterations so there is variance in reported results). But though it seems safer for the defender, it’s not really that great, as there’s no deterrent against USSR air. USSR knows its valuable units will be safe with no AA gun, so is more inclined to carry out the attack.

    If R1 builds 1 tank, attacker odds fall to 33-35%, if 0 tanks around 15%.

    There’s a lot of weird things going on behind the scene, mathematically speaking. I mentioned Axis and Allies results often manifest in a multi-peaked curve (usually about two).

    http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=&aArt=&aArm=16&aFig=&aBom=&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=&dArt=&dArm=16&dFig=&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCru=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

    With 16 attacking tanks against 16 defending tanks, the results don’t come out to mutual wipeout, or even 1 tank on one of the sides surviving. No, if you look at the chart, it’s something like 3-5 tanks usually surviving on a single side with the other wiped out. Sometimes more.

    What I’m getting at is with perfectly evenly matched forces, you see the end result usually favors one side or the other by a good margin. It’s not that both sides evenly wipe one another out right down the light; differences in initial dice outcomes get magnified over subsequent rounds until, well, you see what happens.

    So when USSR has a fair-odds attack that can perhaps wipe out a chunk of Germany’s irreplaceable tanks (you can build more, but gone is gone), what does USSR think? If USSR gets lucky on opening rolls and Germany unlucky, it can inflict a chunk of casualties on Germany’s valuable forward infantry (it takes time for Germany to march all those units to the front, and that time has value and opportunity cost), and maybe take a shot at some tanks as well. If USSR doesn’t get so lucky? Well, not fantastic, but USSR can retreat to West Russia and move infantry in to reinforce. So long as the dice outcomes aren’t an absolute disaster for USSR, the position will be all right. So USSR does attack. Even if the odds look not to be fantastic, USSR really doesn’t have a lot to lose, and has a lot to gain, so it does it.

    But if the odds look really bad for USSR, then it’s a little different. All right, destroy Germany’s forward infantry, that’s very nice, but how much of USSR’s units are lost? Eventually Germany may establish a forward position then try to push USSR off West Russia, if USSR took a chunk of casualties and Germany didn’t, the balance of power is shifted towards Germany.

    Even at 33-35%, it’s not categorically wrong for Russia to hit Karelia. Remember those were about the odds for US getting good results in the first game for attacking Wake, and US lost two infantry but destroyed an infantry and a bomber in exchange. In that game, Japan wasn’t in position to punish US pushing to Wake, similarly Germany may not be in a position to punish USSR for attempting a hit on Karelia then retreating to West Russia. Yes, if the dice are an absolute disaster for Allies there’s a possibility of an immediate German counter, but it’s unlikely if the Allies played competently. (I mean, literally unlikely in the probabilistic sense, it can certainly still happen).

    But you can see here the sort of thing that happens once you start looking at the numbers and specifics. It’s not “just one or two units here or there”, R1 2 tank build literally makes all the difference between a viable R2 Karelia hit or not. R1 retreating from Ukraine to preserve USSR tanks starts to make more sense. It’s understanding the numbers that separates accurate play from inaccurate play.

    It’s not absolutely necessary that a player analyze games mathematically; a decent player will get some idea of what outcomes will be based on intuition shaped from years of experience.

    But I do want to point out I’ve always been very critical of players that push dogmatic lines of play absent detailed analysis, because new players that lack experience are going to make loads of inaccurate plays everywhere which will add up to their losing. The more actual board conditions are ignored in favor of “simple advice”, the less it applies against actual board conditions, the more players that follow inflexible advice end up losing as they didn’t understand the basic principles underlying.

    I’m not saying it’s right to just hit new players with text walls either. But there should maybe be a series of videos and/or articles that take Axis and Allies from fundamentals to mathematical concepts to concrete applications.

    Like here, I’m saying Sealion turns out not to just be about brute force invasion of London, it seems to turn out to be about securing early German Africa income, freeing Germany from having to defend much of Europe with ground units (using naval units to do so), and coordinating Japan’s timing with Germany’s development to get effective Axis defenses in Europe against the KGF. There’s a lot of specific actions that turn out to be problematic, like pushing J1 fleet south of Persia, from where Japanese fighters can reinforce G2 push to Karelia; it seems like that might be a good idea, but it restricts Japan’s options with transports depending on UK’s results against Japan’s destroyer/transport off Kwangtung (assuming that attack is carried off). Appreciation for these details is what differentiates levels of play.

    It’s not that I’m trying to claim to be on some other level. I’m just saying, there really is a difference between players that apply mathematics and projections and those that don’t, there is a difference between conversations that show mathematics and projections and those that don’t. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with playing without mathematics; players ought to do what they enjoy. But you can see where advice that doesn’t have mathematics at its core just isn’t going to see much progress.

    Imagine trying to explain, without concrete mathematics and screenshot projections, why it’s important that Japan consider moving battleship, carrier, and fighters south of Persia on J1. What does that have to do with Sealion at all? But it DOES have something to do with Sealion.

    Imagine trying to explain why USSR retreating from Ukraine and/or purchasing R1 tanks makes a difference to Sealion. Isn’t Sealion about invasion of London? So what does USSR have to do with anything? But it IS related.

    So for this upcoming game I’ll use R1 4 inf 3 art open and R1 pushes Ukraine until capture or USSR fighters endangered. Japan won’t push its J1 fleet south of Persia but will instead consolidate, then try to rush Axis income in Africa. Germany will push Africa early then reposition fighters to Europe (joined later by Japanese fighters), Japan will reposition to try to hit India.

    The slow Axis buildup might be dismantled by UK/US picking off Germany’s Baltic fleet, after which Germany will scarcely have the land units to hold off any sort of Allied pressure. USSR will bulge out at Ukraine and have a healthy income. UK’s India stack will build over time, and eventually will likely play a role in pressuring Germany off Karelia.

    If Axis lose control of Karelia, then Axis lose soon after (provided the Allies didn’t sacrifice Russia to make it happen). That is my prediction. Probably I’ll play it out later a bit on TripleA, post screenshots.


  • The next commented game has the most mathematics and explanations of the series. But three cautions. First, this is not intended to be any sort of full address or even a real case study. It’s really just an opinion piece with some illustrative examples, nothing more. Second, though the focus is on mathematics remember opponents will not play accurately, you will not play accurately, and even the following text probably isn’t a sample of accurate play. It might look that way, but if there was something I missed? (Shrug).

    Third, what I write following is not even Operation Sea Lion in the proper sense. I don’t think London can be successfully invaded. At best, I think it’s fairly described as trying to use a German Baltic fleet to secure Germany’s Norway/Finland income, reduce or eliminate any need for Germany to defend most of Europe with land units, instead substituting Germany’s navy to fend off the Allied navy. There are a lot of problems with the plan, Germany’s Baltic navy is exposed with nowhere to hide and is easily cut off, I believe there is no way for Japan to meaningfully reinforce Germany’s fleet with 1942 Online’s abysmal rule changes, and USSR and UK end up with a lot of freedom in the area between Ukraine and India, which leads to problems.

    Because the following is so demonstrably NOT any sort of serious threat on London, it is hereafter referenced as “the G Baltic fleet” or such.

    The preconditions for the G Baltic fleet for this game were USSR performs poorly at R1 West Russia, does not retreat its tanks from Ukraine, and does not purchase 2 tanks. This allows G1 capture of Karelia in force with the expectation that Germany not only holds, but will perform so well against any USSR attack/retreat action that even attempting attack/retreat is expected to generate bad outcomes for USSR. Securing Karelia on G1 allows local production of units, to which may be added units produced on Berlin moved in via transport.

    Unlike land-based strategies, with a G Baltic fleet Karelia cannot count on fighter support for defense. Germany’s fighters are locked to carriers, Japan’s fighters are busy near India. The compensation that UK/US cannot easily establish a beachhead at Finland/Norway is balanced out by Germany’s lack of ground forces as it buys Baltic navy, and a stronger USSR pushing for income near Ukraine.

    The German open is not mass transports and a carrier, rather it builds a destroyer, a transport, a carrier, and ground units.

    1. A G Baltic fleet of lone carrier and 2 fighters is vulnerable to UK 2 fighters 1 bomber, then a possible followup of USSR 1 submarine. 1942 Online’s defensive profiles do not allow proper use of the USSR sub, but a player may still reason that an opponent will attack with overwhelming force, and decide to submerge the submarine. If the German carrier is lost first, it is still almost 41% that UK destroys the entire German fleet, I consider that a near-loss condition for the Axis. Even if UK fails completely, if the carrier is gone USSR has a 100% followup with a submarine; even if the carrier is not gone the USSR submarine has 60% to win against a carrier (and winning destroys the entire German Baltic fleet).

    2. A G Baltic fleet of cruiser, carrier, and 2 fighters is vulnerable to attack by UK air with USSR followup. If Germany loses air units first, there’s less of an invasion threat against London and fewer German units that can contest a USSR stack push. Germany cannot simply replace fighters as that will cost ground units in Europe. But if Germany loses naval units first then a USSR submarine followup has better chances. No matter what Germany loses, it is problematic for the Axis, and too much depends on the opponent’s decision regarding the USSR submarine.

    3. A German fleet of cruiser, destroyer, and carrier only leaves budget for 2 transports. Even with 6 fighters, Germany cannot pose a credible threat to London of a level that pressures UK to make a buy that is strategically inflexible. A UK1 buy of 7 inf 1 fighter allows 3 infantry to be placed on India, 4 infantry and a fighter on London, defending London and threatening Germany’s Baltic fleet.

    As London cannot be credibly threatened on G2, this G Baltic game attempts to bolster Germany’s logistics to Karelia, with the Baltic fleet providing cover for a possible German mass transport build that may threaten London and trying to cut off UK/US from reinforcing Europe with cost-effective land units (nothing can be done about Allied fighters from London to West Russia except breaking West Russia).

    The Axis need to strike a balance between choking off UK’s income and racing to try to take down Russia before Germany’s Baltic fleet can be broken.

    R1: 4 inf 3 art, W Rus 9 inf 2 art 1 tnk vs 3 inf 1 art 1 tnk. Attacker survivors: 4 inf 2 art 1 tnk, i14.78th percentile). Ukr 3 inf 1 art 3 tnk 2 fig vs 1 bmb 3 inf 1 art 1 tnk 1 fig, German bomber died first, USSR captures with 1 tank 2 fighter surviving (37.07th percentile).

    As USSR performed poorly at West Russia, both AA guns were placed in West Russia. That left few defenders on Caucasus. Considering the Kazakh infantry to Szechwan frees up UK’s fighter to hit Germany’s battleship, instead of moving the Kazakh infantry to Szechwan, or leaving 1 inf 3 artillery to defend Caucasus, or even adding just 1 fighter to Caucasus, USSR landed 2 fighters on Caucasus and placed 1 inf 3 art, defending against German 1 inf 1 tank 2 fighter battleship bombard which would have been an expensive gamble for Germany but potentially very profitable, especially considering USSR’s weak open.

    https://imgur.com/QvyzHY1

    G1: 4 inf 1 trn 1 car 1 dstr, Ukr 2 inf 2 fig vs 1 tnk (no losses, 45.89% chance), sz 7 3 sub 2 fig vs 1 sub 1 destr 1 btl (sub not submerge) lost one sub (33.11% chance that or better), sz 17 1 btl vs 1 destr (no loss, 93.98% chance), Trans-Jordan 1 inf 1 art vs 1 inf no losses (52.2% chance)

    https://imgur.com/9S7xKFt

    This game is really a bad example of a G Baltic fleet game. Even presupposing bad dice on a R1 open, the R1 open dice were really bad, then G1 had almost all optimal dice results (not just decent or good, but optimal.)


  • Proper play does not consist of canned “strategy” with everything “evening out in the end”; everything does NOT even out in the end. G1 noncombat moves in this game illustrate this point.

    Germany had two submarines survive at sea zone 7, very unlikely but it happened. Its battleship survived in the Mediterranean, which was expected, but even so. We know UK will be choked for income in this game, why? Because as Axis we deliberately plan to choke it out to reduce UK’s options against the G Baltic fleet and at India. As Allies, we know this because we know the Axis player is the sort of player that thinks that way.

    So how can we prevent UK from taking France cheaply, perhaps preserve Germany’s submarines, and Germany’s battleship, not only with a minimum of risk, but a minimum of investment? Frankly we can’t, which is a failing of some guides that say you can “force” your opponent to do one thing or another or “trick” them or whatever nonsense. There is no hidden information in Axis and Allies, and almost no “forcing” of moves (there are victory cities but it’s less about focusing on and fighting for control of victory cities in some sort of “clever” play, and more about simply having strong fundamental play that wins on its merits with victory cities being taken in passing).

    But though in Axis and Allies there’s not really “force” or “trickery”, sometimes an opponent can be presented with possibilities to make inaccurate plays if they don’t correctly apply strategy or tactics. Or plays that are “wrong” in some situations can be “right” in others.

    Consider Germany’s defense of France in this game. There are a lot of conflicting things going on.

    Consider what happens if UK captures France. Income, which is badly needed to challenge Germany’s Baltic navy. Germany will want to commit units to recapture France, which will detract from Germany pushing east. UK loses an infantry or leaves its tank stranded in East Canada (considering 1942 Online doesn’t let you use allied transports it’s rather more of an issue). UK will lose its transport on Germany’s counter, but a 7 IPC transport that wouldn’t be much use for a long time (Germany’s Baltic navy would destroy any early fleet escorts) and a 3 IPC infantry for a 6 IPC territory and positional pressure? Might not seem like the worst.

    Now suppose instead of Germany simply lining up an obvious counter, Germany actually puts a bad defense on France. Suddenly, France becomes more tempting, not less. The income is less certain, but now factor in Germany loses land units from an area already low in land units, increasing positional pressure. With the loss of German units, the net expected IPC gain/loss may be even better than before, even considering the possibility France is not captured.

    But why would Germany put a bad defense on France? Which it does in this game. Because using a single AA gun as part of an understrength defense may offer a shot at UK air, which would be dangerous to Germany’s high-value Baltic fleet when built up later. It’s unlikely UK will lose air to the AA gun, but the more risks UK takes, the more chance something will turn sour. Also, if enough units are used that UK air are required for favorable odds on France, in this game that might mean the two German submarines survive. Those German submarines will be a pain for the Allies to deal with once they move back to safety at Baltic, then they can be used as cheap fodder. But “cheap” at 12 IPCs for the pair, is not really that cheap.

    The fewer fighters UK sends to France, the less its chances there. The more fighters UK sends to France, the less its chances against the submarines. If UK sends its bomber to France instead of the Mediterranean, Germany can build up in Africa, which might seem like a bad idea as Germany’s already drained in Europe trying to feed the Baltic fleet. But persistent German income in Africa over time is a real problem for the Allies.

    So here, defending France with 1 AA 3 infantry is not a “good” defense of France. But if UK really tries to capitalize, then it’ll leave openings elsewhere. If UK doesn’t try to capitalize, then Germany at least committed fewer forces to protecting France, leaving more units to head east against USSR.

    But this entire line of play simply doesn’t come under consideration if there were no German submarines, if German air were in a different position, if there were no German carrier to provide eligible landing zones in case of a UK fleet build (which I didn’t mention but is the case). A “canned strategy” does not allow best adaptation to the situation; it’s easier for beginning players to follow, but not thinking is a bad habit to get into.

    Another bit that might look odd is leaving Belorussia and Poland open. What if USSR captures Belorussia? Blitzes a tank to Poland? The answer is, USSR would be able to capture Belorussia regardless, and trading a 2 IPC Poland for a 6 IPC USSR tank, even allowing for the possibility of lost German infantry, is not too bad of a trade for Germany. USSR tanks seem pretty useful in the early game, but USSR tanks in the early game are nothing compared to USSR tanks in the late game handled by a competent player. They’re a real problem to deal with, so if USSR wants to lose one, fantastic.

    Sometimes players assume something will work out, without really calculating in advance. We know G1 will hold Karelia, but what about G2? If R2 builds 4 tanks, it’ll have 12 inf 5 art 5 tank 2 fig; 24 units with 48 attack. Compare to Germany’s projected defense if nothing is added: 1 AA 8 inf 4 tank, only 13 units with 28 defense. We add in what may be expected; 2 Finland infantry, 2 German infantry built on Karelia, and 5 tanks from elsewhere, for 22 units with 51 defense. This seems better, but remember Germany has a logistics issue so USSR may hit just to reduce Germany’s numbers, then there’s the two-peak model; if USSR hits and gets lucky Germany’s irreplaceable tanks may get wiped out and it’ll functionally be game over. It might seem there’s plenty of margin for error with up to 4 units coming via Germany’s transports and 2 fighters, but remember those are conditional on there being 4 units for Germany to transport (which may not be the case if Germany wants to counter UK and USSR which may mean recapturing France and Poland) and fighters may be needed to defend the Baltic fleet (since UK can build air and/or sea units and bring over its Asia fighters to threaten the Baltic fleet with a pretty big hit) or even for other targets.

    How do we know Germany’s fighters might be needed at Baltic? There’s no obvious indicator, players should always consider what their opponents might buy that could change the situation. What can UK2 build to hit Baltic with? Say 2 fig build (leaving enough for 3 ground on India) and the bomber need not hit the German battleship at Africa, for up to 6 fighter 1 bomber vs carrier, destroyer, cruiser, 2 fighter. UK is happy to reduce Germany’s air force and navy, leaving less for USSR to deal with, throw in a couple transports for a payout and favorable odds and that’s what Germany can expect UK to do. There will also be followup threats from US then USSR from West Russia so even more German navy may be needed.

    Germany is very close to the edge on a lot of planned future defenses, and the entire turn was very different to what it would have been if R1 had different dice rolls, or even different actions (such as retreating from Ukraine). If the Axis had been following a canned strategy, Germany simply would not have played accurately to the actual board position, and that would have been costly.

    Particularly at Karelia, the importance of understanding the G Baltic fleet’s issues was important. For a player used to a G1 11 inf 2 art opening it might be thought sufficient that Germany be able to withstand R2’s counter; a player used to that opening would be used to being able to land German fighters to secure the defense. But with a G Baltic fleet, Germany’s fighters are needed to protect the Baltic.

    Without German fighters available to help defend Karelia, it could have fallen to a R3 counter if Germany didn’t set up its land units at the end of G1 to reinforce Karelia sufficiently on G2.


  • On UK’s turn, I go back to consider opportunity costs and might-have-beens.

    https://imgur.com/9S7xKFt

    Looking at the board it’s easy to dismiss Germany’s moves as mistakes. Germany could have 9 inf 9 tanks 5 fighters threatening W Rus, and 3 inf 3 tanks 5 fighters threatening London. Surely the pressure of both simultaneous threats could force some sort of breakdown somewhere out of the Allies, even if only to prevent destruction of Germany’s battleship at Mediterranean. Germany could even threaten with 4 inf 4 tanks 5 fighters if buying another transport instead of destroyer.

    But it’s a bit more involved than that. Instead of thinking vaguely and reasoning with such force surely something must be possible, the details should be worked out. Even things that may seem like weaknesses may not be.

    First, what of raw force? Consider London. If Germany bought another transport so less a destroyer, even keeping the cruiser back leave the G Baltic fleet at high risk against a UK air attack and a USSR submarine followup. Against a player known to use their USSR submarine to fight it might be considered, but it’s very possibly the entire game right there. Even if both German carrier and cruiser survive, reducing USSR’s submarine’s odds, USSR might still attack, there’s nothing else for the USSR sub to do and the payout is massive.

    If Germany accepts those risks and doesn’t lose its navy before G2 (a real possibility) to threaten 4 infantry 4 tank 5 fighters to London, UK buying 7 infantry and keeping 1 fighter back defends London about 58% if the AA gun then the US bomber are removed first, leaving 3 UK fighters, 1 US fighter, and 2 USSR fighters to land on West Russia. UK could add another tank from East Canada (but would lose the transport) or keep back its second fighter, but 42% is not the best odds for Germany even absent those reinforcements.

    If Germany builds a destroyer for safety its invasion of 3 inf 3 tnk 5 fig is down to about 36% after a UK placement of 7 infantry on London even if UK has no fighters there.

    What about W Rus? 19 defenders 39 def against 23 attackers 51 att, assuming USSR attack of 1 inf 1 art 2 fig vs 2 inf at least destroys the opposing inf (decent chance). This is not at all safe; even if USSR outnumbered the attackers, most of the defending dice are 2 and attackers 3, more importantly initial rounds of combat would remove Germany attackers at 1 and USSR defenders at 2. A lot more defense is needed. Where can it come from?

    But we saw even with Germany threatening London with 4 inf 4 tnk 5 fig, there are still 4 UK/US fighters available to add to West Russia. It’s still not the greatest defense and there are some opportunity costs, but even trying the attack risks German air to UK’s AA gun. True, Japan might prevent the US fighter from being available by hitting Szechwan, but that would risk Japanese air, and considering all the factors outside Axis control, many of which don’t even come down to just bad dice but also opponent blunders, it’s just too much to expect. Even if the US fighter is not available, Axis odds of breaking West Russia are still less than 43%.

    Imagine, first USSR has to have set its submarine to fight so it dies without being able to threaten Germany’s fleet, UK has to attack the German Baltic fleet but fail (losing UK’s fighters in the process), 1942 Online automatically lands fighters if their carrier is destroyed and will probably land them someplace they shouldn’t be then Germany ends up with 2 less fighters on the attack, after failing the attack UK would place 7 units on London instead of 8 and not move the East Canada tank in as an emergency measure. If any part of that process fails, Germany’s odds go down.

    The Allies can keep both Germany’s chances of capturing London and its chances of breaking the Allies on West Russia to less than 50%.

    So does Germany really have so much flexibility and raw power that a bad position is forced out of the Allies? No.

    Some things are not as obvious as they may seem, like the defense of France mentioned in the previous post, or Germany’s need to use its fighters to defend Baltic so Karelia’s defense after a G1 hold being far weaker. The use of the German Mediterranean fleet in a G Baltic game is one of these things.

    Consider the use of the German Med fleet in a G1 11 inf 2 art game. Germany holds Karelia by G2 with Japanese fighter reinforcement from a J1 fleet sent south of Persia, and G1 tank builds to balance any threat R1 dice outcomes and buys posed. Germany then lands fighters to secure Karelia, and pushes surplus ground towards Ukraine, With German fighters defending Karelia and German infantry/tanks pushing to Ukraine, Ukraine can reasonably be held about G4, after G1/G2 infantry and G3 tank builds are joined by Japanese fighters (which are still in position to hit India). In such a game, the German Med fleet is deadly as it allows fine control of Germany’s forces in Africa. If Germany gets income from Africa, that slows UK’s actions but also increases Germany’s income, add that to Germany’s large starting stacks and high production that’s all on the same continent as Russia, and Germany can use that income to ramp up aggression quickly. The Ukraine stack incoming can also be reinforced by the German battleship and transport; two units may seem like a small difference but as examples through this thread have shown even one unit makes a big statistical difference even in large battles, add two a turn for a couple turns and it really does add up. So with a G1 11 inf 2 art opening, the German Med fleet is a high priority target.

    But with a G Baltic open, the German Med fleet is NOT a high priority target. German fighters are locked to the Baltic so cannot defend land, so more German land is locked to Karelia. German income is siphoned into navy; it’s true Germany also needs less land to defend Berlin, Baltic States, and other spots (as its massive navy can wipe out any light UK/US escorts and transports), but combine the two and the net expectation is Germany simply cannot afford to build a stack for Ukraine to deny USSR income. So the German Med fleet can never add to a stack that doesn’t exist, so isn’t near as deadly.

    But German income in Africa is still deadly? Certainly. Absolutely. But considering the current board position has 6 ground 3 fighters challenging Egypt and Germany’s battleship and transport at the moment, what does UK do? If UK hits the battleship it’ll lose its bomber in the battle (or lose it when Germany hits Egypt), then after Japan destroys UK’s Indian Ocean transport there’s no way for UK to prevent Germany from grabbing Africa income. Or UK could try a chancy battle against Libya, leave Germany’s battleship alive, then get wiped out by Germany’s counter.

    But the German battleship threatens UK/US fleet? It doesn’t. If the German battleship moves west of Gibraltar it walks into the face of UK and US’s massed logistics and is destroyed, whether it unites with the Baltic fleet northwest of France or no.

    So all the German battleship and transport really do here is give Germany some fine control in the Africa/Europe region, which will certainly help the Axis, but is not a critical point. The Allies simply don’t need to use resources to hit it, and should instead focus on the Baltic fleet.

    Considering the probability distribution of a UK1 attack on Libya, I edit the map to put 3 German fighters on Libya (instead of 1 on Algeria). This weakens any German counter to a UK destroyer/carrier build northwest of France, but I figure if UK is building a carrier then perhaps Germany can do all right out of the position anyways, but losing air at Libya would be a real problem. Changing Libya from 2 to 3 fighters makes a tactically chancy but strategically reasonable UK attack into a tactically extremely risky attack (and if failing, UK fails its strategic objective of destroying German air while preserving UK air).

    The above may all sound pretty convincing, like the G1 Baltic plan I used is a good idea. But I’ll point out, perhaps my entire perspective is wrong from start to finish but I just don’t know it. Second, this is not a “normal” game, so far USSR has very bad rolls and Germany very good ones. Third, even if the Allies can’t blow a huge gaping hole in Axis defenses so far, it’s only round one.

    ==

    Looking at UK’s position, there’s three major issues that leap out. First, Germany threatens West Russia with 8 inf 9 tnk 2 fig. Second, Germany threatens London with 2 inf 2 tnk 2 fig. Third, Germany has its fleet at the Mediterranean and a lot of units lined up to hit Egypt.

    London may not appear to be in danger this round, but a less obvious threat is the possibility of Germany buying 6 transports on its turn. If the Allies don’t plan for that possibility, dumping 8 units on London just may not be enough.

    Complicating the matter is India, UK’s India fleet, Japan’s destroyer and transport at Kwangtung, and Japan’s upcoming attack into India. If possible, it would be nice to preserve UK’s carrier, sending it around Africa to become relevant in the Atlantic around UK5.

    ==

    First, London. Germany’s 2 inf 2 tnk 2 fig isn’t a real invasion threat, but 7 transport buy and G3 is 9 inf 9 tank 5 fighter.

    What about trying to clear some of Germany’s navy? Probably UK would lose, but could UK at least clear a German fighter or carrier? WIth UK 2 fig 1 bom vs 1 dstr 1 cru 2 fig 1 car (with German carrier taken last in order of loss)

    http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=&aArt=&aArm=&aFig=2&aBom=1&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCru=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=&dArt=&dArm=&dFig=2&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=1&dCru=1&dCar=1&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Des-Fig-JFig-Cru-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Cru-Fig-Car-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

    There’s a 64.25% Germany keeps 2 fighters 1 carrier or better, Allies have no followup, and Germany can build on its turn to pad against future attacks. So no, UK won’t hit the Baltic fleet this turn.

    Suppose UK tries a greed build; 2 fighters for London, 3 land for India, threatening UK2 6 fig 1 bom vs Ger 1 car 1 destr 1 cru 2 fig, with followup US2 1 bom 1 fig (if fig survives Szechwan) R3 2 fig. As there are followups, Germany can’t just dump its carrier early; that would leave no fighters defending the sea zone, especially as 1942 Online’s rules changes mean Japanese fighters can’t reinforce. Even if Germany buys a carrier and lands two fighters, with 1942 Online’s inflexible defensive profile there’s about 31% the UK2 attack clears the German fleet, and another 21.6% Germany is reduced to 1-2 carriers, which US/USSR followups have a chance of clearing. Even if the Allies don’t clear the German fleet, there’s a good chance Germany loses a chunk of irreplaceable air, weakening its ability to challenge USSR, and the Baltic fleet gets destroyed on followup rounds.

    But suppose Germany takes that chance. It does need a carrier, that reduces its G2 buy to carrier / 4 trn, reducing the invasion threat to 6 inf 6 tnk 3 fig (assuming at least 2 figs are lost at Baltic, which is very likely).

    UK’s air force will be gone, but after US1 carrier/2 fighters and 2 fighters to East Canada, US reinforces with 4 fighters. If the UK attack did not go well, US and USSR may reinforce London instead of attacking the Baltic fleet, for possibly another 1 US fighter, 2 USSR fighters.

    So Ger 6 inf 6 tnk 3 fig vs AA, bomber, 2 inf, art, tnk, 6 fighter. Attacker wins 61.4%.

    That seems all right, but UK2/US2 can also reinforce London with UK 1 inf 1 tnk from East Canada, 3 inf 1 tnk from East US. It is not a question of whether the Allies can defend London, it is a question of how many transports the Allies lose to secure the defense. Just 1 US transport reduces attacker chances to 29.3%.

    So you can see there’s a real question whether Germany only builds 1 carrier at all. Just 1 carrier leaves Germany possibly losing its entire Baltic fleet, and the Allies have good chances to defend London even if UK’s attack on the Baltic fails. More, US will have a US3 attack of 4 fighters 1 bomber against the Baltic fleet, and that could be an issue for a severely depleted fleet.

    The unspoken assumption on London defense so far is UK hits and destroys the 2 German submarines northwest of London successfully. I won’t compute the odds here, but 1 destroyer 1 cruiser 2 fighters do have really good odds to clear. So I assume it’s probably safe, and the backup is splitting Allied transports between East Canada’s two sea zones; the odds of both German submarines surviving is super low and if just one survives it can’t hit both.

    ==

    Second, West Russia. Germany threatens West Russia with 8 inf 9 tnk 2 fig. If USSR tries to defend it alone, Germany has similar numbers but better attack dice than the defenders have defense dice, and the attackers lose attackers at 1 initially where defenders lose defenders at 2. Without even calculating it, those add up to a winning Germany attack. UK can land fighters, and perhaps US (if it survives Szechwan). So you see here how 1 USSR infantry at Szechwan can preserve the US fighter against Japan’s attack, and frees a UK fighter to not land on Szechwan; potentially two fighters for the cost of one infantry is a good price. (Though Japan may still risk the attack). This is why even with bad USSR1 dice it’s still often nice to put a USSR infantry on Szechwan.

    Germany has the invasion threat on London but it really is a weak threat. Just the new fighters on UK could help defend, leaving UK London fighters free to land on West Russia. But UK cannot use its London fighters to hit Germany’s subs and still land in West Russia, it’s one or the other. And the German submarines need to be destroyed before they can escape to the Baltic.

    Considering the situation, I switch out a Baltic States infantry for the AA gun on Karelia. Originally I wanted to use the AA gun to buffer against USSR attacks, but assuming the G Baltic is about simultaneously building pressure on West Russia and London, a more forceful move could be “correct” if it can’t really be punished, which I forget if it can be or not but I’ll look at it again later.

    So now the threat on W Rus is 9 inf 9 tnk 2 fig (if 2 USSR uses inf art 2 fig and eliminates Germany’s infantry on Ukraine). UK fighters land on, it leaves Germany with a 22.6% to win. This does not account for the US fighter. It’s not great; Germany wants to keep its forwards infantry and its tanks and its fighters, and really doesn’t have the numbers to push more reinforcements. If Germany had a good lot of ground units following up, Germany could try attacking then retreating to cut down on USSR’s stack and try to get lucky, but the Baltic fleet hasn’t had a chance to really help Germany’s position at Karelia yet.

    So W Rus can be defended, if UK doesn’t hit Africa. Since in this game I think the German battleship is sort of a sideshow anyways, that’s what Allies will do.

    Assuming defending subs “chicken” (submerge if possible), leaving 1 UK fighter and 1 bomber 1 dstr 1 cru to hit Germany’s 2 subs

    http://calc.axisandallies.org/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&dsubschicken=on&aInf=&aArt=&aArm=&aFig=1&aBom=1&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=1&aCru=1&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=&dArt=&dArm=&dFig=&dBom=&dTra=&dSub=2&dDes=&dCru=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Sub-SSub-Fig-JFig-Cru-Des-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat-Tra&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-AArt-Arm-Bom-HBom-Sub-SSub-Des-Car-Cru-Fig-JFig-dBat-Tra&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=AA1942&territory=&round=1&pbem=

    ==

    Third, Egypt. Nothing UK can really do about that; hitting Germany’s Med fleet means W Rus can’t be defended, Germany already has a huge counter into Egypt. Hitting Libya, after the edit, 3 German fighters just leaves too much dead UK air and too much live German air in the possible outcomes.

    So at this point, UK’s buy is figured (2 fig 3 inf, normally an art would be nice but UK really wants to pinch pennies). It’s just a question of figuring UK’s attacks - probably carrier/cruiser to Kwangtung’s destroyer/transport (if left alive it’s another 4 units in Asia by end of J2 which would accelerate Japan’s timetable on India).

    The question is what to do about Germany’s position on Trans-Jordan, what to do with UK’s units at Egypt, and what to do with UK at India.

    The “Africa Defense” plan would move Egypt units south, Union of South Africa infantry north, and perhaps 2 India infantry via transport to Anglo-Egyptian Sudan. I don’t like it, but as the Allies don’t plan to challenge the battleship for a while, Germany can get a lot into Africa, and UK will need a good chunk of units if it wants to pose a reasonable challenge (even with US support).

    ==

    UK1: 3 inf 2 fig, inf/art/fig vs inf/art at Trans-Jordan (attacking inf/art destroyed, surviving fighter retreat, 2.4% worst case), car/cru vs dstr/trn off Kwangtung (trn survive, 14.69% this or worse), dstr/cru/fig/bom vs 2 sub northwest of London (64.81% best result, no losses)

    With the Kwangtung battle lost, Japan will have accelerated development in Asia, and with losses at Trans-Jordan, Germany has enough to perhaps start pressuring India and certainly secure north Africa. I cancel the planned move from India to Africa; if Germany could be stopped in Africa it might be different but there’s really just no way with Trans-Jordan going so badly.

    I split defense between India (1 AA 5 inf, can be hit by inf, art, 3 fig, btl) and Persia (4 inf, can be hit by 1 inf 1 art 3 fig). Japan and Germany would both have to risk air to attack, and at least one attack would likely fail. If India fell but Trans-Jordan survived, Trans-Jordan could reclaim India (then lose it to the counter next turn). If UK did lose control of India it wouldn’t be able to produce, and that would mean quick loss of India, but with Japan’s timetable accelerated that’s probably going to happen very soon anyways, and USSR doesn’t quite have enough room to send reinforcements to India just yet.

    It bears mentioning this is exactly what the Axis want, but it’s really not that the “Axis plan worked”. At best it could be said after horrible R1 Allied dice, Germany risked a G Baltic fleet open, then further horrible R1 Allied dice left the Axis with a decent position.

    The UK bomber lands at Kazakh, where it can pressure Africa, Baltic, and a lot of Asia.

    J1: 3 inf 3 trn, 4 inf 1 fig vs 2 inf at Anhwei, 2 inf 1 art 1 fig vs 2 inf at Yunnan

    US1: 1 dstr 1 car 2 fig; Yunnan 2 inf 1 fig vs 1 inf 1 art (won, lost 1 inf, 59% this result or better), Hawaii sea zone 1 sub 1 dstr 1 fig 1 bom vs 1 sub 1 cru (lost 1 sub 1 dstr, 19.06% this result or worse)

    https://imgur.com/5x52JQo

    (Note: Old picture; US destroyer should be at Greenland)


  • R2 4 inf 4 art, 2 inf 2 fig vs 2 inf at Ukr (74% capture vs 79% with 1 inf 1 art 2 fig, lost 2 inf, 26% this result or worse)

    Since USSR can’t get a good challenge on Karelia, I build inf/art; tanks are a last-moment build for pressure. Place 3 inf 1 art at Caucasus; Germany could try hitting with 1 inf 1 tnk 3 fighter 1 btl but that would use fighters Germany needs to defend its Baltic fleet and any fighters/tanks left on Ukraine would be subject to a major hit by USSR. (Even if West Russia collapses because USSR’s stack shifted, Axis trying for Caucasus would leave a load of Axis high-value tanks and fighters vulnerable. The position just can’t be safely fortified especially against a USSR attack/retreat.)

    By round 2 Germany’s turn I think it’s clear G Baltic fleet does not work - I don’t think just in this game, but I mean in general. I just don’t see how it can work out well.

    I am not saying the Axis lost this game, there’s still plenty of options, I’m just saying I think the G Baltic plays didn’t do as well as other lines would have. Like all right, the Baltic carrier got UK to not hit the Med fleet, great. But a Med carrier can do that too, and that doesn’t get blown up nearly as easily. Of course, I might think G Baltic is not good simply because I played it completely wrong, but read through the material and decide for yourself. I tried a lot of options, you saw the probability distributions.

    Germany couldn’t use its fighters to defend land territory. The Baltic fleet is vulnerable to attack and cannot be shielded. In 1942 Online Japan cannot reinforce the Baltic navy. USSR outmasses Germany’s land to a degree that they’ll actually be able to push Germany back in Europe so gain income. Germany cannot cut off UK’s India stack so UK never has to retreat on account of Germany; UK can hold on until Japan gets its push together.

    In the current position, if Germany builds mass transports, UK simply blows up the lot, even if Germany blocks UK’s navy with a destroyer. If Germany builds a carrier and destroyers, London comes under no more pressure and in fact receives 4 US fighters anyways at the end of this round so won’t remotely be in danger. UK is free to build air or transports this round, which could have played out differently in the short term if Japan had not hit the Hawaiian fleet (with a Japanese bomber in range, a UK2 fleet build could be targeted), but regardless of what happens, there is no way Axis could stop US1 fleet into US2 move, then UK3 navy build / US3 reinforcement. Japan simply wouldn’t have the airpower to stop it without a J1 mass bomber build (even then, questionable) which would normally cripple Japan’s development in Asia anyways.

    Anyways UK builds even more air, then what does Germany do? Build more navy? Germany is out of fighters to land on carriers and a G2 build of 4 inf 1 carrier 2 destroyers following G1 purchase of 4 inf 1 trn 1 carrier 1 destroyer leaves Germany super soft against USSR.

    Are there compensations? Sure. The Allies were pressured into a slightly dicey defense at India (which if the Axis attempt the Axis will probably fail and if fail be set back). Germany can transpose to an Africa game. But even if Germany changes course right now and abandons the G Baltic fleet to preserve fighters, G1 still spent 29 IPC on navy that will die to a bad-odds mass attack, then UK air repositions to Africa (especially as UK retained its bomber) to challenge Germany’s income there while US also pushes. Germany is down almost 10 land units in Europe; sure it did delay the Allies, but good use of Allied existing forces and planning, I think, really neutered G Baltic.

    Though actually it really comes down to 1942 Online’s rules changes. Can’t land fighters on ally carriers, you know?

    And I’ll remind readers - Allied rolled garbage all game. If G Baltic did not work in this game, I don’t know that it would work well in other games.

    But? In fairness, all right, I’m rusty, but you saw how many small changes I did (though to both sides). So if I’m not performing optimal plays, then of course someone that’s even less familiar with a G Baltic fleet is probably going to play even less accurately. Though I know that’s rather self-flattering of me to say, I’d think it’s true.

    So IS G Baltic / Sealion worthless? I’d say no; even though I think proper play might cut it apart. At the least, players should be familiar with different lines, whether they plan on using it, or plan on defeating it. And if an opponent is known to be strong against some lines, a player looking for a win can try a different line to see if that opponent plays accurately against it.

    (Edit - in closing, 1) it won’t matter if Sealion isn’t mathematically sound if an opponent doesn’t apply the mathematics (and I’d say there’s every reason to think they won’t), 2) I think Sealion is disadvantaged in particular under 1942 Online, 3) yes, I could have missed something (but as ever I say where, specifically?) 4) Board Game Nation put out the first in their Axis and Allies Strategy Session videos so I’m watching that now.)


  • The ranking are competitive and the high ranked player win far more they lose to get there. And these players overwhelmingly do not build naval units in the Baltic round 1. This should give anyone interested in winning pause about whether it is a good line of play. Maybe someone can innovate in a way that shows a large body of evidence wrong, but strong claims require strong evidence.

    The Baltic round 1 buy is problematic because Germany has extremely strong and reliable lines with a standard 11 inf 2 art buy that reliably can take Russia by round 9. By investing in the Baltic, Germany gives up this valuable opportunity.

    Second, UK has simple strong counter play to prevent a decisive win. This is an 10 infantry buy with 7 or 8 placed in the UK. This ensures over 99% safety of UK round 2. With USA navy buy round 1, it is nearly guaranteed that allies have a navy around UK by round 3.

    By going Baltic round 1, Germany does an all-in where it must capture UK quickly to have a good chance of winning. This goal is easily frustrated by a reliable response that does not depend on luck.


  • It does the community a disservice to claim not thinking is thinking.

    @boston_nwo said in Why Sealion Doesn't Work (Maybe) (edit - in 1942 Online):

    Second, UK has simple strong counter play to prevent a decisive win. This is an 10 infantry buy with 7 or 8 placed in the UK.

    As ever, I remind readers “simple” answers for a weak meta do not survive a strong meta.


  • Thinking about strats that get easily and consistently refuted is a waste of time, unless you like arguing for the sake of arguing. There has to be some baseline of viability, or you end up discussing full sub G, full bomber G, full cruiser G etc which isnt productive. G2 Sealion is mainly for cheesing inexperienced players. Even then for stomping newbies a J3 india timing into a round 4 VC win is a lot more consistent and less risky(though less flashy).


  • @quintin said in Why Sealion Doesn't Work (Maybe) (edit - in 1942 Online):

    Thinking about strats that get easily and consistently refuted is a waste of time

    Readers will decide for themselves whether thinking things through is a waste of time or not.

    Just because you’re not personally planning on reading a book doesn’t give you the right to burn all the copies.


  • Germany making uk’s navy creation difficult through some combination of killing UK cruiser with the battleship, bomber buy and/or even a sub buy could be interesting. UK right now transitions so cleanly from round 1 carrier buy into Europe landings. Denying or delaying Nordic countries is worth 6 income a turn net.

    Germany attempting to directly strike at uk’s capital is really an uninteresting line to discuss. UK has a guaranteed way to ensure that the capital does not fall with higher than 99% chance with an 8 infantry placement. Germany has minimal alternative follow ups since the entire Baltic region is already controlled by Germany. From Germany’s perspective, Sealion is a big investment at huge opportunity cost thst requires allies to absolutely blunder to gain a major advantage.


  • I’m not going to dig deep into it because I’m sure neither Quintin or BostonNWO/MarineIguana wants a numbers-based discussion. Look through their posts anywhere, look through mine anywhere, that’s how it is.

    But a couple basics:

    1. It’s exactly the Allies pushing for “extreme safe” lines of play that can make the German Baltic navy viable.

    2. Oversimplify the “advice” and the Allied player plays right into Axis hands.

    ==

    As to Baltic navy bomber / subs, apply the same stuff I wrote in this thread and adjust it for reasonable Allied action. When you look at the numbers, should be pretty clear it isn’t any more “interesting” than Sealion.

    Which is not to say it isn’t interesting.


  • Thought about it, decided to add this part on after all.

    As ever, I imagine some are going to pick on pieces of what I wrote and completely ignore the actual point. So I’m going to lay it on a little thick now.

    Suppose you have a new player that gets the advice “you can’t let either of USA’s victory cities be captured, if that happens game over”.

    So what does this new player do?

    Why, the SMART thing of course. They know, from other “advice” that infantry are a good defensive buy.

    So for the first three turns as US, that player does nothing but buy infantry for East and West US.

    They are doing their job as an Allied player! There is NO WAY the Axis are going to capture US any time soon!

    BEST ALLIED PLAYER EVER AM I RIGHT

    :relaxed:

    (In case it isn’t clear just from context, that’s really bad US play.)

    . . . so now you have a UK player that sees a possible threat on London, and they dump a load of infantry on.

    So simple!

    :relaxed:

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