What odds battle would you take to win the game?


  • Thanks for rubbing it in :-P


  • @TimTheEnchanter:

    @axis_roll:

    In a fairly even game, what percentage win would you need in a battle that, if you won it, would just about win the game?

    Assume that you can afford to lose the attacking units / there is little risk to losing your position if the battle goes for the opposition.

    66% chance?
    75%?
    50%?

    Assume also that both players are of about the same skill.

    Not sure I understand the question.   If it’s a “fairly even game” against a player of the same skill, how could I be one win away from a decisive victory in a battle where I can “afford to lose the attacking units/ there is little risk to losing…position if the battle goes for the opposition”?
    yes, it IS a nebulous question because usually it IS hard to tell which side is winning in a game if the game is somewhat early and no one had a distinct advantage.

    If that’s the case, i’d say theoretically you should probably take a shot at at 50% or maybe even lower, because the way you describe it, there’s ultimate upside and almost no downside.  I have a hard time envisioning what that scenario might even look like… maybe a small-scale tank blitz on a poorly defended capital?  Sure…roll dem bones.
    that is the way I am looking at it

    But really, if…
    …I’m in that position with a chance to win and
    …I can truly afford to lose the battle without losing much in terms of units or position, and
    …it’s really an even game
    I have to assume that means my opponent is similarly close to claiming a decisive victory elsewhere (otherwise how is it truly even if I’m so well positioned, but he/she is not?), so I better take my chances soon.

    well I am involved in only one game here and it’s for a tourney level game  :wink: :wink:

    But in reality it depends on whether I think I will ultimately get a better shot at a decisive battle that is more in my favor by holding off that wouldn’t happen if I make the attack and fail.
    I agree, there may never be a better opportunity to win the game then now.  I think you have clarity thru my very ambigious question.


  • @ncscswitch:

    Thanks for rubbing it in :-P

    Its karma for the AA guns in our tournament game…


  • @axis_roll:

    In a fairly even game, what percentage win would you need in a battle that, if you won it, would just about win the game?

    Assume that you can afford to lose the attacking units / there is little risk to losing your position if the battle goes for the opposition.

    66% chance?
    75%?
    50%?

    Assume also that both players are of about the same skill.

    0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%

    You got nothing to lose so WHY EVEN ASK!!!  ANY CHANCE OF VICTORY IS GREATER THAN NONE, AND WITH NO CONSEQUENCES FOR LOSING, YOU SHOULD GO FOR IT!

    TimTheEnchanter wrote the critique I should have.


  • @Bunnies:

    @axis_roll:

    In a fairly even game, what percentage win would you need in a battle that, if you won it, would just about win the game?

    Assume that you can afford to lose the attacking units / there is little risk to losing your position if the battle goes for the opposition.

    66% chance?
    75%?
    50%?

    Assume also that both players are of about the same skill.

    0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%

    You got nothing to lose so WHY EVEN ASK!!!  ANY CHANCE OF VICTORY IS GREATER THAN NONE, AND WITH NO CONSEQUENCES FOR LOSING, YOU SHOULD GO FOR IT!

    TimTheEnchanter wrote the critique I should have.

    Well there is SOME risk, the percentage that you will lose the battle. However, under the assumption that losing the battle will not lose you the war, then I agree, may as well go for it.
    Sometimes that’s not so cut and dry (the ‘damage’ that can occur if you lose this battle)

  • Moderator

    It really depends on the status of the game and how you think it will go from then on.

    For example if the status quo remains and the player can stack more in the capital then you can bring to attack, your odds are just going to go down, so even though you may only have a sub 50% chance to take that you may determine that is the best shot you’ll get.  But if you determine you can out stack them and increase your odds then you wait it out.

    If you are talking about a shot on UK or Ger (via sea), that’s a different story b/c those can be one-time threats and could have long term effects since they may interrupt your current transport system, so while it won’t lose you the war it can mess you up a few turns down the road.  Now, I’d consider taking a really low % shot (30-40%) at either one if I felt that I didn’t get off to a particularly good start.

    But I also think I have a good feel for the game and can judge whether I’m winning or losing.  So, as the Allies I’ll pass up low % to hit Belin and just continue to stack until I have overwhelming numbers.

    But as was pointed out if there are no consequences you might as well take a shot with a 1% chance.  But that would seem to imply you have an overwhelming lead already.


  • @DarthMaximus:

    But as was pointed out if there are no consequences you might as well take a shot with a 1% chance.  But that would seem to imply you have an overwhelming lead already.

    I simplified when I said there were no consequences since in this case, to me, they appear minimal.

    I’ve already talked myself into the attack, I was merely posting to see if anyone has some sort of go/no go point in a battle.  But I guess alot of that is situational (like many other A&A battle decisions)


  • It mostly depends on the game momentum. If I have a borderline shot at taking Russia a few turns before the US and UK start doing some really heavy landings, I’m going to take it. But if I can afford to wait and work for better odds I will.


  • For those of you following along at home, I took the 74% win battle, did quite well and my opponent surrendered.


  • I was going to answer in this thread, but you may still be my opponent in the final match of the tournament and it would be foolish of me to give such information away  :-)


  • @EskimoJack:

    I was going to answer in this thread, but you may still be my opponent in the final match of the tournament and it would be foolish of me to give such information away  :-)

    NICE  :-)  :-)  :-)

    +1 karma for ya

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