Posts made by zlefin

One useful thing is to download some games by the top ladder players, or just any good players, and load up the saves and look over them. That can help you get a feel for a variety of strategies.

I’ve been trying some alternate bid patterns to see how they work, so this is a collection of notes from that, not super organized.

All the games used certain basic rules: I’m playing against myself, I ensure there aren’t any major mistakes: if it turns out I made a mistake/left an opening, then I edit different moves as if they had been done at the time so there isn’t a vulnerability. I accept the result of die rolls, so good/bad luck affecting a side can still happen.

GAME 1
My first try worked passably but not great was a russia focused bid, as part of a europe focused game plan. The plan was to try to force Norway capture by Russia, bid had 3 russian artillery in Karelia and neighbors, with 3 mech inf in the locations 2 distant from there. Other bid parts were scotland fighter dd 91 and phillippines inf. net bid 45ish. On Russia 1 Karelia is stacked so that a germany attack has poor expected tuv, this does take a lot of stuff, so it means yunnan isn’t well defended. Typical J1 Dow. America also went heavy europe, with the first turn buy being 4 bombers, then a fighter/bomber mix turn 2, before shifting back to Japan. A key part of the build plan is that the large american air force makes it hard for germany to ever do a sealion, the heavy american bombing, which can hit Germany proper, significantly reduces German offensive power, and the ability for Brit and US air based in finland or norway to shift and defend moscow if needed based on where germany puts its air.
Britain gathered like a gibistian, but didn’t buy an aifield to defend it. Italy and Germany chose not to try wiping the fleet, it’d be potentially doable, but dicey, and cost a lot of german air.

It took russia until 6 to force norway, its pretty hard to force norway, though it might’ve been doable earlier looking through the save, but it takes movin geven more of the russian mobile forces up there, it’s hard to do when germany can stack its air there and transport over 2 inf a turn, plus italian fighters can fly in too. Part of the threat comes from the possiblity of hitting with russia then following up with allied nations. even just holding finland for awhile plus getting to bomb with US degraded germany a fair bit. Germany was however able to get novg, cauc, and volg objectives in good time, so even with the loss of the norway objective, and russia getting +6 from holdin those two, the situation wasn’t great. I never actually finished the game, turn 9 is when I stopped, the income was still pretty even and the game looked to be stalling out, a few gains were made in some spots, counterbalanced by others, so it definitely seemed like the stallout would continue.

One alternate plan i’d considered, and that may’ve had merit, is to abandon the plan at Round 2, with russia withdrawing its forces back into its land, doing so it could probably have kept germany out of novgorod for longer and held bryansk for awhile longer. It might wrok out similarly net value wise, with russia having less income, but denying germany its NOs a lot as well via blocking or deadzoning. It also means the German inf up in Norway have a long path before they can apply any pressure, being unable to reach moscow until turn 8,

That Japan was given free reign for some time ofc hurt, though not as bad as I feared, perhaps there’s better Jap strats for when they’re given free reign for a couple of turns. Still they ended up in a position with slightly better income than US, but ofc needing to spend a few inf a turn to deal with china and others; they were able to hold a more advanced position, holding carolines, and threatening anzac. Anzac had shifted fairly early on to almost pure inf production, which kept them safe enough that Japan couldn’t take them out, but also meant anzac provided no pressure on Japan. India fell predictably, though perhaps later than it should’ve. Japan was a bit more focused on holding a solid position against the US and pushing them away from the ability to harass at all compared to a rapid india push plan. After all a uk pac with only 6 income is very easy to just block in.

Overall the game accomplished its gameplan, but the gameplan didn’t seem any better than existing options, and probably a touch worse. Still, there’s more to explore and there’s potential.

GAME 2 (A and B)
Also net bid 45ish, this one was focused on trying to rapidly kill Japan, it ultimately failed to win in both cases, while it did kill Japan, it wasn’t enough faster than normal compared to other plans and didn’t seem that effective. This one also featured two branches, as I had to decide how to scramble vs Germany doing heavy sea attacks due ot the light allied bids in Europe, hitting szs 110 and 111. Bid had 3 russian artillery in Amur and neighbors to help threaten Japan, Russian fighter to help yunnan, yunnan inf, phillipine inf, subs in 91/98, and an artilley in AE sudan; now that I think about it, it isn’t quite as heavily Japan as I’d thought. The theory of the russian artillery is that it would significantly increase the amount of Jap units pinned north, as while stopping a pure inf force doesn’t take too many units, stopping 18 inf + 3 art takes quite a bit more. The main problem is that Japan can still defend it fairly well, in particular stacking Korea enough that Korea can’t be taken, plus an airfield in FIC or Kwangsi (which are so generally helpful for Japan) means that they can deadzone Manchuria and cover everythin sufficiently well; not that they did that in both games, som eof that is hindsight learning. In one game Russia got to take Korea (wasn’t able to give it to the US), and Japan shifted forces northward to clear that out, while they did clear it out, it took so many forces to do so (factoring in allied air helping defend it at times) that it left Japan too vulnerable in the south, it’d have been better to just keep the defense near the islands. At any rate, Germany still won that game as it got to take Russia down in good order and then shift to a mass take on Egypt.

The heavy german fleet assault on rd1 made me realize that even though it may be slightly better on defensive tuv results to scramble, there’s some serious countereffects to such, in particular the loss of those planes may leave you low enough that you become sealion vulnerable, and that it may prevent a taranto raid (either by not having enough fighters, or by making it unsafe to send fighters down to the taranto raid without leaving uk exposed to sealion. It made me wonder about those side effects and how worthwhile it may be for germany to hit heavy even against a scotland fighter bid, I’ll assess that in time perhaps.

I can provide the saves if people want, not sure how many care to actually look deeply through them ofc, and there’s lots of edits at scattered points when I noticed problems.

OTHER
Some general comments on bid thoughts and other play patterns:

1. When facing a typical yunnan stack, which is 5 china inf, 2 ftr 1 tac, it may be worthwhile for Japan to attack it anyways, using its 2 bombers to help; if the dice are only average or worse, retreat after rd 1, but if any better than that continue for as long as its profitable. It’s hard to calculate the net expected tuv for a battle that continues or not based on whether early rounds went well; it’s -2ish for the first round, but a favorable round 1 can shift the net results considerably. The larger question depends on part on whether its worth spending/risking Jap air to take out Russian air.
2. Putting one bid inf in the phillippiness increase the stress on a J1 dow, its not a huge effect, but it does give a very minor failure chance on the battle unless Jap air is spent or more than just 2 air are sent. It also means fewer units available to land on the islands.
3. putting an inf in yunnan can be worthwhile even if you aren’t doing the full yunnan stack for the same reason, Japan has limited forward air rd 1 and it limits their overall attacks and results. In particular if combined with a dd in 37 Japan has a lot of places that need the bombers to get good results and can’t pick them all.
4. A VERY dicey bid - Russian Bombers in Amur, hits sz 20. Has about 41% to take out the Jap transport, overall expected tuv is about 5.5, but some of that is an overpriced cruiser compared to a valuable bid unit/bombers. still, success really hurts a J1 dow
5. bidding an extra uk carrier may let you gibastian quite safely without an airfield, could place at 98, or at 91 (risky but decent odds). I considered using such a bid to then do a taranto raid, but it didn’t look great; while IF germany attacks they lose 6 ish air, and ofc you wiped the taranto italy fleet, it does leave you fairly vulnerable to sealions since you had to send 4 fighters south, and there’s a lot of potential german counters. Taking greece to give your fighters a landing spot can easily be countered by germany just setting up to hit greece with 3 tanks/4 inf.
6. a common problem with my typical kjf strats is that china ends up being functionally dead, sure the allies get the income, but becuase it can’t leave china it doesn’t do anything useful, its too far for it to serve as a raiding base for uk pac raiding captured russian lands, and its pretty easy for europe axis to just ignore china. This is another factor that changes somewhat if you don’t use the games official victory conditions but require total victory, as then at least China could land block the path to southeast asia.

I just dislike youtube videos, they’re far harder to manipulate and assess the map with; which also makes it harder to assess whether the various overall plays are sound enough for the data to be useful.

so how did this compare to other more typical play patterns? OOB without a bid is going to be easy for axis no matter which path you take, so it’s really a question of how it compares to alternatives.

French troops in caucasus seems odd, it’d be much better to wait a turn and give the land to britain.

It sounds like the allied play didn’t really try to properly leverage the vulnerabilities of such a move.

is this selfplay or against an opponent, and against what caliber of opponent if so?

what kind of allied bid is being used?

how much of a tuv loss should germany be willing to accept to pull off a sealion, if any? (including whether or not the transports get killed in a counterattack). and what kind of victory chance odds are acceptable?

As i’ve been running scenarios a bit more, it’s become more apparent how much some bad dice for britain can make them very vulnerable to sealion; and it makes me wondering how risky it is for britain to full scramble if 110 and 111 are hit even with an extra scotland fighter, And the extent to which the need to protect vs sealion limits taranto raid possiblities.

While a US counterattack can free london, it seems like it may be tricky to do, and it does give Japan a lot of time to grow potentially.

I’ve been doing some self play, and my preliminary estimate is that eliminating victory cities lets allies get away with about 20 less bid. That’s still a fairly rough estimate, but it does enable some very different allied strategies, it also lets them not have to force certain defenses as much as they otherwise need to, so they cna focus on income and positional advantage.

thanks for the thoughts, i’m gonna start on my play vs myself game trying out one of my various bid plans to get a feel for how the numbers work as it goes.

@farmboy
aye it does; I’m just slowly pondering alternate openings, and putting the bid elsewhere. A hit on both 111 and 110 seems like it would put german air at risk, and is one of the few ways to try to push a german air death.

so many tradeoffs with bid placements.

what opening would germany use if the bid didn’t add anything to the british at all? Do people hit multiple british navy stacks? Is there any consensus on what the best opening would be there? Or is there a lot of variation in what people think would be best? Or does nobody think about it because bids so often shore up britain?

I’ve been pondering postgame analysis a bit as I’ve calmed again. My Japan was underperforming I think, it should’ve done better with US only going part on it. The attempts to force clear carolinas never worked well; I’ve been mathing out some alternative early turns, to see how well Japan can push on US to limit its actions. Nothing all that clear, other than that it may be worthwhile to try to hold carolinas earlier as Jap, preventing the US from ever taking it. A number of things to try really.

I’m wondering how often your allied landings in Europe have worked out? I’ve tended to abandon any efforts to land in the France area, and most european landing efforts, as I find they seldom seem to have enough effect or work well, at least compared to how well you can sweep Japan. Transports just seem weak in this version, and the supply lines are long to sustain inf. I’ve never managed to put enough pressure on Germany to really let Russia take major advantage of it, thoug hI do have a few other ideas to try on that. Not that I plan on any real games, I might just play against myself some though, with free editing to avoid any surprises I may realize.

oh andI definitely want to classify that game as ‘over’ and never come back to it. It has to be removed from my plate fully; but just calling it with no result is fine.

either way’s fine. I’d been meaning to ask btw, does your elo system use a modification that prevents new players from draining too much elo from high ranked players if they win? some elo systems put those in to make sure playing players not previously on the list isn’t a huge elo risk, especially since they may be good and just not calibrated yet. Or maybe all elo systems do that. Aye, it was a fun and interesting one, for awhile at least; I tend to get too stressed when I play tight games thoughtfully.

I guess that means I won’t be able to get clear enough data on my balance questions, because playing tight enough games to get that will tend to cause me problems.

farmboy (allies) over zlefin (axis) global allies +44
by concession.

I’d basically won after a long hard fought game, but then played unfocused for a couple rounds and threw away tons of tuv (like 200) I’m also tired of being stressed and my health issues are acting up again, which makes me more unfocused.
Personally I class this as a win and basically am not counting the last couple rounds.

oh, I didn’t realize those Jap transports were gonna die where they were. I’m just gonna concede, I may well still be able to win, but I just don’t care anymore, the gmae got ruined by my playing while unfocused and throwing a clearly won game; personally, I’m just gona not count the last turn for my own purposes. I’ve been wanting the game to end for some time now, and I don’t want to play another 10 rounds fighting a game that’s already stressed me out, exacerbated my underlying health problems.

TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 12

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition

Game History

Round: 12

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans repair damage of 6x factory_major; Remaining resources: 71 PUs; 
        Germans buy 2 artilleries, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters, 4 infantry, 1 submarine and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        1 cruiser and 1 destroyer moved from 91 Sea Zone to 104 Sea Zone
        3 submarines moved from 91 Sea Zone to 109 Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from Western Germany to 119 Sea Zone
        6 bombers moved from Western Germany to 104 Sea Zone
        3 infantry moved from Volgograd to Caucasus
        5 armour and 5 mech_infantrys moved from Ukraine to Caucasus
        3 infantry moved from Rostov to Caucasus
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Rostov to Caucasus
        3 artilleries and 7 infantry moved from Germany to Poland
        1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Western Ukraine to Poland
        1 infantry moved from Eastern Poland to Western Ukraine
        1 armour moved from Yenisey to Evenkiyskiy
        2 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Novosibirsk to Urals
              Germans take Urals from Russians
        2 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Urals to Evenkiyskiy
        1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Tsinghai to Turkmenistan
              Germans take Turkmenistan from Russians
        1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys moved from Rostov to Caucasus
        10 artilleries and 20 infantry moved from Rostov to Volgograd

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in 119 Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 1 bomber
            Americans defend with 1 transport
                1 transport owned by the Americans lost in 119 Sea Zone
            Germans win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for Americans: 1 transport
        Battle in 109 Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 3 submarines
            Americans defend with 1 transport; Russians defend with 1 submarine
            1 submarine owned by the Russians submerged
                1 transport owned by the Americans lost in 109 Sea Zone
            Germans win, taking 109 Sea Zone from Neutral with 3 submarines remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for Americans: 1 transport
        Battle in 104 Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 6 bombers, 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer
            Americans defend with 1 carrier and 2 fighters
                Germans roll dice for 6 bombers, 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer in 104 Sea Zone, round 2 : 5/8 hits, 4.83 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 carrier and 2 fighters in 104 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the Germans and 1 cruiser owned by the Germans lost in 104 Sea Zone
                1 carrier owned by the Americans and 2 fighters owned by the Americans lost in 104 Sea Zone
            Germans win with 6 bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 16
            Casualties for Germans: 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer
            Casualties for Americans: 1 carrier and 2 fighters
        Battle in Caucasus
            Germans attack with 6 armour, 1 artillery, 7 infantry and 7 mech_infantrys
            British defend with 1 artillery and 2 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 6 armour, 1 artillery, 7 infantry and 7 mech_infantrys in Caucasus, round 2 : 4/21 hits, 5.83 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Caucasus, round 2 : 3/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                3 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Caucasus
                1 artillery owned by the British and 2 infantry owned by the British lost in Caucasus
            Germans win, taking Caucasus from Russians with 6 armour, 1 artillery, 4 infantry and 7 mech_infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is 1
            Casualties for Germans: 3 infantry
            Casualties for British: 1 artillery and 2 infantry
        Battle in Evenkiyskiy
            Germans attack with 3 armour and 1 mech_infantry
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 3 armour and 1 mech_infantry in Evenkiyskiy, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Evenkiyskiy, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Evenkiyskiy
            Germans win, taking Evenkiyskiy from Russians with 3 armour and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        4 carriers and 8 transports moved from 91 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
        5 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from Holland Belgium to 110 Sea Zone
        5 artilleries, 4 carriers, 4 infantry and 8 transports moved from 110 Sea Zone to 112 Sea Zone
        3 artilleries moved from Western Germany to 112 Sea Zone
        4 infantry moved from Western Germany to 112 Sea Zone
        1 aaGun moved from Holland Belgium to Western Germany
        6 bombers moved from 104 Sea Zone to Western Germany
        1 bomber moved from 119 Sea Zone to Western Germany
        6 fighters moved from Karelia to 112 Sea Zone
        4 tactical_bombers moved from Karelia to Western Germany
        2 fighters moved from Southern Italy to Western Germany
        2 fighters moved from Western Germany to 112 Sea Zone

    Place Units - Germans
        1 destroyer, 1 submarine and 1 transport placed in 112 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Ukraine
        1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Volgograd
        3 fighters placed in Western Germany

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 52 PUs; end with 52 PUs
        Objective Germans 3 Control Caucasus: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 57 PUs
        Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 62 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : 0.33
Russians regular : 1.67
Germans regular : -1.33

Savegame

@farmboy
nah, at this point they may as well just stay where they are and w’ell move on.

I see I’d forgotten to unload those units to malaya, bleh. so many things forgotten and screwed up; I should’ve had the game over by now.

TripleA Turn Summary: Italians round 11

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition

Game History

Round: 11

    Purchase Units - Italians
        Italians buy 2 fighters; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Italians
        1 fighter moved from Southern Italy to 99 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Morocco to Algeria
        6 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia
        1 armour moved from Slovakia Hungary to Poland
        1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Southern Italy to Yugoslavia
        3 artilleries and 7 infantry moved from Southern France to Northern Italy
        1 carrier moved from 91 Sea Zone to 83 Sea Zone

    Combat - Italians
        Battle in 99 Sea Zone
            Italians attack with 1 fighter
            Americans defend with 1 transport
                1 transport owned by the Americans lost in 99 Sea Zone
            Italians win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for Americans: 1 transport
        Battle in Yugoslavia
            Italians attack with 1 armour, 6 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
            British defend with 1 infantry
                Italians roll dice for 1 armour, 6 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Yugoslavia, round 2 : 2/8 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 infantry in Yugoslavia, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Italians lost in Yugoslavia
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Yugoslavia
            Italians win, taking Yugoslavia from British with 1 armour, 5 infantry and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Italians: 1 infantry
            Casualties for British: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Italians
        1 fighter moved from 99 Sea Zone to Southern Italy
        1 aaGun moved from Southern France to Northern Italy

    Place Units - Italians
        2 fighters placed in Southern Italy

    Turn Complete - Italians
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 10
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 97 Sea Zone. Rolls: 1,1,5,2,5,6,2,5,2,3,3
        Italians collect 7 PUs (10 lost to blockades); end with 7 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Italians regular : 0.33
British regular : 0.67

Savegame

no scramble.