My gut is to attack Karelia and the UK Seazone.
You’re hitting KAR with 9 inf (3 fin, 3 eeu, 2 ukr), 7arm (all available), 1 bmb, and 2-3 planes. The UK seazone you use your sub and the rest of your air. In the meantime i would make whatever maneuvers in Africa appealled to me, with plans to dump my 2 seu inf onto UKR to block a Cau offensive.
the Karelia battle - let’s assume 9 inf, 7 arm, 1 bmb, 2 ftrs (no aa hits)
first round G kills (roughly) 6-7 inf, RUS kills 5-6 inf
Next round G - 3 inf 7 arm, 1 bmb, 2 ftrs, R - 5 inf, 3 arm, 2 ftrs - now i’d either retreat back to UKR, or keep going, depending on how badly i felt threatened by the russian air and armor.
G2 G kills 5-6 inf, R kills maybe 4 units
G - 6 arm, 1 bmb, 2 ftr, R - 3 arm, 2 ftrs - again, retreat or press
G3 G kills 4-5, R kills 2ish
Germany takes Karelia with maybe 4 arm plus air. It may well lose those arm if R kills Kar from Cau, but since during my NCmovement i moved a bunch of inf to UKR and EEU, as well as my remaining arm, and i still have a semblance of an airforce left, R may well retreat back to Russia. Hard to say.
I know this isn’t a GREAT plan - best on short notice, and i’ll get hammered for losing Germany’s armor, but this seems to be a good reason to lose Germany armor. This is a classic hammer and anvil opening. Japan just has its way with Russian territories in the east while Germany pumps out inf the rest of the time.
Take care - the UK seazone could cost you some air. The price you pay, i guess, for not playing Russia restricted.