Do you play Russia Restricted, or Bid?
I usually bid for axis, but if you play RR the balance is tipped a lot against russia, effectively neutering the russian Behmoth and making the allies more reliant on an effective US strategy.
The difference is apparant from Ger T1. With RR, the British fleet is sunk, and germany retains probably 5 FGT, 1 BMB for the airforce, and might even be able to evacuate the armour in NOR on the TRN.
With russia able to attack, the baltic fleet dies, sometimes even the atlantic sub as well, and NOR can be taken losing the lutwaffe a fighter. Thus with only 4 FGT, germany is hard pushed to kill TRN in LAB, fleet in UKSZ, BB in GIB, and make a successful assault into AES in T1.
The odds are that germany will lose another FGT, but succeed in all those ambitions.
Thus, with only 3 FGT, 1 BMB, I am wondering how you are going to remove the second turn british fleet consisting of an AC, 2 US FGT, and 2 TRNS (all standard moves) without mutual destruction?
Bearing in mind that on Russia T1, there will be 16 INF, 2 FGT, in Karelia, and on Russia T2 there will be 23 INF, (at least 3 ARM), and 4 FGT (2 RUS, 2 UK) in Karelia. How are you going to hit that if your planes are busy (dying) in the UKSZ, or indeed defend against the Russian assault on R3 with no planes?
If you do as you suggested, and devote an airforce (at least 12 IPC’s) to africa (worth 11 IPC’s a turn for the mainland), firstly, where are you getting this airforce from? and what are you sacrificing the defence of to acheive this african airways?
You might want to bear in mind how much material you are committing to defend territories that aren’t worth all that much, besides without a german IC in africa, both US and UK can land about 6 INF each into africa on turn 3, now 12 INF is going to cause a problem for your 1 FGT and (say) 4 INF. If you had more stationed there, I would simply land those troops in NOR/KAR to push to the eastern front, but the troops would still be in range of landing in africa.
I should also draw your attention to the fact that in a battle between 2 TRN and 1 BMB, the BMB will return alive less that 50% of the time, so an “undefended fleet” of two TRN isn’t so easy to pick off afterall.
As for an allies 1st Strategy, considering the amount of allied material present in the asian theatre at the start:
7 INF, 1 ARM (RUS)
4 INF, 1 FGT (US)
2 INF, 1 FGT (UK) - can be reinforced from africa via TRN
vs 7 INF, 2 FGT (with 1 BMB & 1 FGT in JAP)
The allies hold a considerable upperhand which I prefer to exploit slowing Japan down, whilst still going for a Germany first strategy.
Cheers