Fair enough, I’m happy to hear your viewpoints and experience. I just have some trouble reconcilling it to my own.
Regarding a J3 attack, no unit produced in Asia can reach by that time. Let’s count the maximum which can reach:
J1 produce 3TT+art, take art from Machuria & Japan, including 2 inf. 4inf+art to Hunnan
Then: Mec + 6inf + 2art arrive from north, 3art+tank+6inf from Japan via Kwansi. Note I am assuming ignoring Kwangtung which is clearly absurd unless there is no DOW J1 or J2.
Total for Japan (up to): 16inf+6art+tank+11ftr+8tb+2sb
I get in Yunnan:
UK: 1ftr 1tb 8inf 1arm 3AAA
China: 17inf 1ftr
Japan wins losing all land units on average. Interesting. They’ve made some enormous sacrifices to get there though. You could also throw in some Strat bombers produced J2.
SIMON: Feel free to critique / address anything I’ve missed. I tried to be as specific and accurate as possible making logical aggressive UK purchases to contest Yunnan.
Lets go through (ignoring alternative issues) the J1 DOW and Yunnan on the ensuing rounds.
China starts with 4 INF on Yunnan.
J1 attack will include
3 INF, 1 ART from Kwangsi
2 SB from Tokyo
1 FTR, 1 TAC from Kiangsu
On average TripleA shows 6.38 of 8 units remaining. That leaves 1 INF, 1 ART for Japan on Yunnan, or 1 ART. Depending if you want to round down or up. I’ve seen it go clean sweep on the first round, and I’ve seen myself end with 1 ART. I’d suggest typically its 1 INF 1 ART - in my experience.
Now, J1 ends with these units in range for J2 Yunnan
1 INF in Hunan
1 MEC via Manchuria in Anhwe
2 INF in FIC
Total, 4 INF
Japan also has all starting Aircraft less the FTR/TAC in the Carolines and the FTR in Korea (now Tokyo), so 9 FTR, 7 TAC, 2 SB that are in Kwangsi.
Japan took Flip with 3 INF and 3 ART. Odds are typically 1 INF dies in my experience, so there are 2 INF and 3 ART on Flip that can move to Kwangsi on J2.
Japan also risks losing 1 FTR at each Kwangtung and Hunan as Japan only sends 1 INF in each place from Kiangsi (the other INF/ART are used on Flip). Odds are low this happens, but it does. I’ll concede that 1 FTR is lost if that is agreeable?
J1 Also placed 2 TT off Tokyo which will ferry 2 INF, 1 ARM, 1 ART on J2 to FIC; but they aren’t around for J2 Yunnan. Just wanted to put that out there.
China attacks Yunnan with up to 8 INF, 1 FTR. Odds show China loses 1, so that is 7 INF remaining. My experience seems to be it tends to be 6 INF more than 7, but we’ll go with 7 to be conservative.
China also gets to place 5 Units, all INF.
UK goes and can move 2 INF into Yunnan and if you want, 2 FTR and 1 TAC. I’m presuming UK would wait another turn where it could move its 3 AA and its starting INF stack there before committing its aircraft.
All said, J2 Yunnan squares up like this:
China 12 INF
UK 2 INF
Japan 3 INF, 1 MEC, 8 FTR, 7 TAC and 2 SB. Japan can include the FTR/TAC from the CV in Flip however, so it could be 9/8 FTR and TAC. I’ll show odds next.
Without Flip or UK Aircraft
In this situation, Japan has to lose 3 Aircraft, 2 FTR and 1 TAC to leave 1 INF remaining.
China then has 1 INF (via Shensi NCM on C1), 1 FTR to reclaim it. Those odds are “good”, but a Japan could roll to make China choose between a FTR or retaking Yunnan and placing units there.
UK can clearly settle Yunnan henceforth, but not at the numbers you suggest for J3 due to the J2 attack.
I typically make this trade because of the overabundance of aircraft Japan starts with because it puts both the UK and China on their heels going forward.
With Flip Aircraft
Nothing really changes here, more aircraft but you still have the same amount of losses. It makes it clear the losses are depending on the defenders and Japan has achieved as much of a critical mass as possible. Same scenario as Standard Yunnan going forward.
With Flip and UK Aircraft
In this scenario, Japan takes 10 total losses. 3 ground units and 7 Aircraft which is 4 more than the standard Yunnan. Effectively you force Japan to use its FTR from Flip, lose them, and 2 more than the standard.
However, due to the inclusion of the UK FTR, effectively the UK trades 2 FTR and 1 TAC for 4 Japanese FTR. To me, this is a losing proposition because Japan still has the advantage and you’ve traded out your most expensive and valuable aircraft that you cannot replace easily.
In all three scenarios, it still comes down to China’s ability to reclaim Yunnan with 1 INF and 1 FTR against 1 ART, which is VERY dicey.
Now for J2 positioning:
J2 will NCM 2 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM from the TT off of Tokyo to FIC
J1 saw 1 INF, 1 ART move from Kiangsu to Kiangsi which now NCM to Kwangsi on J2.
Anhwe had 5 INF, 1 ART from J1 which are unlikely to be harrassed, meaning the are either in Kweichow via combat or NCM to Hunan on J2.
J2 placed 3 MEC on the J1 MIC in either Shantung or Kiangsu which are out of range for Yunnan J3.
All told, Japan now has:
8 INF, 3 ART, 1 ARM in range of Yunnan for J3.
In a best case scenario (for Japan), Japan has 6 FTR, 6 TAC, 2 SB now on FIC. In a worst case scenario, Japan has 5 FTR, 5 TAC, 2 SB (Flip and UK Aircraft version).
Minors are also placed on both FIC and Kwangtung.
Now onto China 2:
China now has purchased units, which I think is 4 INF and it has the combat battle ahead of itself for Yunnan which, if you stacked like you suggest means there is 1 INF and 1 FTR remaining to reclaim Yunnan. Assuming you do well, you take Yunnan with 1 INF, land the FTR in Sze and place your 4 INF on Yunnan - leaving 5 INF.
UK 2 could go different ways depending on the UK1 Purchase. If UK 1 purchased MEC on UK1, it could have 4 MEC in range of Yunnan on the second round. Assuming you’re intent to contest Yunnan, that means you have 6 INF 1 ART and 3 AA in Burma and have yet to expose your aircraft.
Now, presuming the China 2 scenario goes well for China, that lets the UK walk in with 6 INF, 4 MEC and 3 AA. It can also land its 2 FTR and 1 TAC.
End of Round two looks like this:
8 INF, 3 ART, 1 ARM, 6 FTR, 6 TAC, 2 SB
As J3 starts the way J2 ended, Japan now has to conduct the assault - again.
Here are the odds:
Japan takes more heavy losses, losing 15 total units. However, as Japan brought 12 land based units, and needs 1 to survive, Japan has to trade 4 more aircraft to ensure victory. At this point, Japan is trading 2 FTR and 2 TAC. Putting Japan down to 4 FTR, TAC, 2 SB with 1 ARM remaining on Yunnan.
Shoring up positioning for Japan:
NCM 3 MEC from Shantung to Hunan
Place 6 MEC, 3 on Kwangtung MIC and FIC MIC
That puts 9 MEC, 4 FTR, 4 TAC and 2 SB in range of Yunnan for J4.
On China’s turn, it has 2 INF from Suiyayan that have now NCM twice, once to Shensi on C1, and then to Sze on C2. China can yet again take Yunnan with 2 INF and 1 FTR, likely leaving 1 INF and 1 FTR remaining. The FTR then can fly somewhere, potentially Burma as it is likely Sze may be under duress at this point. Maybe not. I don’t really think it makes a difference at this point. China I believe can still place 4 INF, possibly 3 depending how northern China went and if Russia has taken Manchuria. We’ll say worst case scenario China places 4 INF leaving 5 total INF on Yunnan.
On UK’s turn, the UK again is based off of its Round 2 Purchase, which was either 3 MEC or 4 INF. Nothing is in Burma because MEC were piled onto Yunnan on UK2. Assuming the purchase was MEC, UK NCM’s the 3 MEC to join the Chinese again in the slaughter.
Round 3 ends up with units in range of Yunnan as follows:
9 MEC, 4 FTR, 4 TAC, 2 SB
J4 Yunnan appears fairly decisive as follows:
This leaves Japan in control of Yunnan with 5 or 6 MEC remaining and no aircraft losses.
Japan placed at least another 6 MEC on FIC/Kwang MIC’s which will shore up the advance going forward for Japan. If Japan purchased MEC for the MIC on Shangtung on J2, they are also now in range of Yunnan as well.
China is now out of retaliatory options and can choose to buy and place units wherever is left in China, but China has now lost control of the Burma road.
UK now has likely seen its income decrease that it is placing 3 or 4 INF per turn on Calcutta going forward, and Japan now having superior numbers and a supply of units streaming out of MIC, India is poised to fall.
Assuming there was not much issue for Japan claiming DEI while this was going on, Japan could add another 2 INF and 3 ART on Burma to join the 5 or 6 MEC from Yunnan and now the siege is set: Very little income for India, China is in a corner and Japan’s able to pump out ground units at its leisure to take Calcutta or simply convoy India into a corner with no future investment.
Of course, the US, Russia and ANZAC are likely creating new issues, but that is a whole different scenario going forward and impossibly hard to predict other than merits of where to go first and how much to invest.