Thank you Karl for this good Topic. My experience with Global Alpha+3 (40-50 games i think) (and now with the second Edition) is the follow (we assume, that 2 EQUAL Players fight each other):
The Axis has a slight advantage, because they can dictate the first 3 rounds at a minimum the strategic way. Till round 7 they will go forward and the only thing the allied can do is to look for counterattacks and keep they dangling. Round 7-10 are the critical rounds. If the allies can managed this time they will get a slightly IPC advantege. But not always (Kreuzfeld, youve right, my knowledge too).
the problem is that when germany gets to rostov, ussr has to retreat to moscow, and ger gets 10 NO + middle east, possibly with japanese support. at this point, the axis often have acheaved an economical advantage on the allied. (while stratbombing moscow)
But the most important thing for an all in all slight (perhaps more than slight) advantage for the Axis are the Victory Cities. The Allies cant prevent all important land at the same time in the first 7 turns. You must land in Europe to force the Germans to build in western Germany (or Europe) AND you must hold Hawai, if Calcutta falls.
My fazit: Slight advantage for the Axis.
My last game (face to face, Global, second Edition, dice, original rules, with tech):
G3 attack on Russia, J2 attack, Ã„gypt didnt fall (but Italy didnt too in the game), Japan conquers Calcutta in round 7, after that US must spend 4 rounds full in pacific, defend Hawai with 2 Fighters left over (if he takes it, i cant reconquer), Japanese build all for pacific victory (US must reflight 4 Bombers from Europe to Pacific, 4 Trn too), but the russians and british walked to Calcutta for reconquering (which was succesfull in round 17). Last big battle around Hawai in round 18 to destroy the Navy (last hope): Japanese: 8 AC with 12 Fighters/4 Tacs, 2 Bombers, 5 Subs, 3 DD, 2 Cruiser, 3 BB, 3 Trn with 3 Inf/3 Pz VS US/Anzac: 6 AC with 12 Fighters, 6 Subs, 4 DD, 3 Cruiser, 1 BB, 4 Trn (they load of 4 Inf / 4 AA Gun in the turn before). The Japanese wins the battle with 2 Bombers, 1 Tac, 1 Fighter (destroyed BB, because they will killed in next turn from the US Navy from SZ 10, and the planes can land in Midway). Land Battle Hawai: US hold with 4 Fighters. The Axis surrenders! Playing time: 23 hours (2 Days).