The USA counterattack could be deadly if Hawaii is invaded and Japan could suffer early losses. I think the following will inflict max. damage on Allies with limited losses to Japan and a good turn 2 setup
Attack US BB in SZ53 with 3 fighters, 1 DD DO NOT MOVE Midway CV’s until noncombat
Attack SZ 56 with 1 fighter
Attack India fleet with 2 fig from sz 61. this will allow transports to take easy islands on turn 1 and setup and India or Aus victory on turn 2.
2Inf/TR to East Indies from Carolines and 2Inf/TR Borneo from sz61
Invade Burma with TR 3 Infantry/ 1 Artillery from sz61 & Indochina
Attack sz 50 with BB from sz 61 fig from Jap. (it could land on a returning CV from sz57)
SZ 62TR and pick up one tank from Japan and 1 infantry to attack Philippines.
Second Caroline TR picks up INF and another form OKI to land against Kwa with Cruiser or Formosa fig support.
Kia and Manchuria forces/fig could take one or two more territories in China.
Move Midway CV’s to Carolines or sz60 and land 4 fig. It gives you an option if a bad roll occurs to move to sz 60 (if all 4 fig survive, then one ican land on an island to make room for the sz 50 fig.) If you move two CV to Carolines then all 3 CV / 3 TR could hit Aus or a mixture of TR forces could attack India and Aus. Any USA counterattack against the Jap. fleet in Carolines will have heavier losses and all TR are safe. sz 60 would be completely safe.
land battle in Phillipines is the only 50/50 gamble.
Depending on UK/USA moves, you might Be able to take India and Aus on turn 2, but the forces will be in a flex. position.
We will see how this plays out and this does not address builds.