The problem is G2 Sealion just isn’t a great threat, there isn’t a great Axis transition (that I can think of anyways) out of the Allied counters, including a G3 Sealion buildup. UK doesn’t even need to sacrifice its placement in India under some lines, there’s just so many problems.
Say G1 Baltic carrier, battleship and transport take Gibraltar. You want to pressure UK, maybe get it to do things it doesn’t like to do, that’s the general idea right?
But then all the problems I referenced earlier come back to bite Germany, and more besides.
What is the position of the German battleship in the Mediterranean? Southwest or southeast of Gibraltar? If southeast, then UK has something like a 75% to kill the German battleship with destroyer/bomber, which let’s be real, it’s not a great battle for UK, it’s a low dice count high risk battle, but if the German battleship is cleared then it’s going to really screw with Germany’s fleet survivability in the Atlantic (which I’ll get to later). At 75%, there’s a real chance the Allies decide to just go with the attack, and even if the Allies lose, as significant as the bomber may have been to the UK defense it may not be that much of an issue, which I’ll get to later.
What’s the position of German air? If the German battleship is southeast, then at the end of the turn there’s a 33% chance of a German fighter on Morocco, or a 67% chance the German fighter died against the UK cruiser. Because if UK has destroyer/cruiser/bomber against German battleship, well, that’s just going to suck.
But no, you say? If you want to threaten Sealion then you want to preserve Germany’s airforce, which you would reasonably want to do anyways regardless of whether the Allies may go KGF or KJF, which you wouldn’t know for sure about on G1 anyways? So it is NOT a 33% of German fighter on Morocco and 67% German fighter died, because you split a German submarine off to accompany the Berlin fighter?
Very well. And really, if you have a 75% of just destroyer/bomber clearing the German battleship, you don’t want the 1/3 chance of a lone German fighter utterly failing against the lone German cruiser, which brings the expectation of Germany’s battleship being lost before G2 (assuming UK attacks) to 82%. So splitting off a submarine does make sense. But then you’re down to two submarines, cruiser, and two fighters at the UK battleship fight, which increases your risk there. And we know the UK East Canada destroyer and transport survived, and we know the US East US destroyer and transports survived.
Since we know the German cruiser left the Baltic, now the Baltic fleet is vulnerable to the USSR submarine which has 60% win against a lone carrier, or a UK air attack with a USSR fighter followup from Archangel.
But no? The Baltic fleet is safe because G1 built a destroyer? Very well. Then the G2 push on Ukraine is seven units down.
You see what I’m getting at? Every time Germany tries to squeeze out, the net closes elsewhere. There just isn’t one superior option that says “look, you win with Sealion, this is what the mathematics says”.
Back to the German battleship positioning. If southeast of Gibraltar it can be blocked by a destroyer. Germany only has one discretionary submarine in the Atlantic without sacrificing its odds on the UK battleship and even if that submarine wasn’t sent to the UK cruiser there’s still both the UK and US destroyers in range to block and Japan can’t clear either.
And if Germany’s battleship is southwest? Then UK has destroyer, two fighters, and bomber to destroy the battleship outright.
So what’s Germany’s invasion force? Since Germany’s Med fleet won’t factor in, Germany’s Sealion is then 1 infantry, 1 tank, 5 fighters. That’s it.
Against that UK has 1 antiaircraft gun, 2 infantry, 1 artillery, 1 tank, 2 fighters, 1 bomber. Setting order of loss to AA, infantry, artillery, tank, bomber, fighter (not even a serious defense)
Less than 11% attacker wins, and UK literally builds nothing on London, we’re not worried about USSR flying in a fighter from Archangel. Germany doesn’t even get a cheap shot on the bomber because the odds of a successful invasion are so low the Allies can take that chance, and as to why there’s only 1 bomber on London, well, that assumes the UK bomber blew up trying to hit the German battleship and failed. but US flew in a bomber.
But that’s all? That’s all there is to “sealion doesn’t work”? No.
You start looking at these different lines and transpositions and timings and counters and think about what reasonably might happen. So let’s do that. Without digging too deep into the mathematics and each of the branches, let’s just think about the different ways sealion can be opened, how it can play out, how the game develops.
Africa. If Germany tries to blow up East Canada and/or East US fleets, that’s going to have an impact. If Germany tries to control access to French West Africa that’s going to make a difference, and not just for UK/US in Africa, but for USSR’s options in Europe too. The problem Germany just doesn’t have a load of great options to begin with, you drop 14 IPC on a carrier and Germany has even fewer options, you drop 8 more IPC on a destroyer and the options are even worse, and you drop 12 IPCs on a bomber for Africa (and for other purposes), then you might as well just set Germany on fire and get some marshmallows.
Going heavy into London. Say Germany builds a carrier and three transports, now Germany’s invasion fleet even after the block is 4 infantry 4 tanks 5 fighters, how about that ha ha! But okay, you cut 12 units off the G4 Ukraine push, if you don’t think that’s going to be an issue, well, it will be. The German fleet has lousy survivability, you have to keep back the cruiser, you’re going to risk precious German air in the UK battleship fight, you have almost a 12% chance of the German Med battleship dying to the lone UK cruiser, but let’s not be party poopers and let’s just have a fun pretend game where Germany actually has this thing whatever.
Okay so then what? You have no fodder against the UK cruiser, now the Berlin fighter has to take its chances, but if Germany stays southeast of Gibraltar it’s easily blocked anyways. So let’s say Germany goes southwest of Gibraltar which also helps with the German fighter. Then UK can hit with destroyer, two fighters, and bomber, that’s the German battleship dead and the transport too. So again, there’s no great options for Germany’s Med fleet, you can say you could potentially remove a bomber off defending London or you get some positional pressure, but it’s not great, and you’re not going above 4 infantry 4 tanks 5 fighters in any event.
UK builds 2 infantry 1 artillery for India (not giving up anything there), drops 7 infantry on London, US bomber flies in. Again the Allies go with order of loss AA, infantry, artillery, tank, bomber, fighter. No cheap shots for Germany to take advantage of defensive profile settings.
Now again, we know if Germany’s battleship is southeast of Gibraltar then it can be blocked. UK’s air is not at risk. If Germany’s battleship is southwest of Gibraltar then UK has massive odds and might lose a bomber.
So just off that, say the defenders are 1 AA gun, 9 infantry 1 artillery 1 tank, 2 bombers (1 UK, 1 US), two fighters. That’s the order of loss, I want to emphasize the Allies are not even taking the invasion threat terribly seriously at that point, as it only has a 15.4% anyways.
But if the Allies do take it seriously? One less infantry on India, one more on UK. Attacker odds drop to 8%. UK transports the East Canada tank in. Attacker odds drop to 3.1%. USSR flies in a fighter from Archangel. Attacker odds drop to 0.6%.
And if Germany follows up with 5 transports? No no, let’s say 6, no, 7 transports! If Germany goes G1 carrier/3 transports that’s 6 IPCS left, it then only needs 43 IPCs for the 49 it needs for 7 transports. That’s definitely got to do it, right?
But no. UK drops 8 more units on London, US drops 8 more units (US1 2 fighters to East Canada, 2 transports to East Canada, builds carrier and fighters, US2 lands 4 fighters 4 land units on London).
It’s not all peaches and cream for the Allies, the Axis are going to be able to pick some targets off. But how can Germany spend 70 IPCs on units with no combat characteristics and not expect to pay for it somewhere down the line? When does Germany move out of the Baltic? US already has 4 fighters and a bomber, and if UK is trapped on London then it doesn’t really need a lot more ground, not just because US is sending in reinforcements, but simply because Germany is running out of units it can transport over from Europe. If Germany goes into carriers, UK can drop cheap subs, if Germany builds a destroyer, UK can drop subs in multiple zones and air and say “come and get some”, with USSR running all over Europe it’s not great.
But there’s compensations? Sure. It’s not like Germany was going to be able to develop its push on USSR too well until G4 anyways even if Germany had stuck to G1/G2 infantry/artillery buys. Germany has a load of mobility and can dump to Karelia at will, also Germany has assured income in Finland, Norway, and maybe even Africa, though that’s maybe asking for a bit much, who knows, it’s not like I’m saying UK was adding its India/Africa fighters to London’s defense. (Again, I’m saying the Allies just have so much they can put on London, maybe it’s not even necessary). Maybe you get the collapse of India, maybe you have a glut of UK units on London, but then what happens?
Well, you have UK stranded and getting its income choked off at Africa, let’s say this is reasonable to claim and nice for the Axis. But then what? Once the Allies blow up the Baltic fleet, which is not long in coming, then UK can use transports to drop all those London units into Europe. There will be some inefficiencies, but with UK’s income being cut from Africa anyways, UK was never going to meet maximum output on London anyways. By UK overbuilding transports to 5 or 6, all that happens is London empties out relatively quickly, Germany certainly doesn’t have the land units in Europe to contest, and the game quickly develops to where UK/US secure Karelia and join the rampaging USSR against the also-rampaging Japan, Germany gets rolled up, Africa contested, and that’s that.
How does that not happen? Especially in 1942 Online.
Germany builds carriers then Japan lands fighters? Not an option in 1942 Online. It wasn’t an early option anyways as Japan’s fighters want to be in range of India, and Baltic is just too far, but with 1942 Online you remove the mid/late game transition, and it’s just too bad.
Germany builds navy and withstands the Allied air assaults? The moment Germany stops heaping on the transports, UK drops air. UK knows it wants air to blow up Germany’s navy, the air helps defend London, after the Atlantic is controlled by Allies UK fighters still help with trading, UK air (esp. bombers) can support in Africa. The only reason UK doesn’t drop air is if UK is dropping transports, and that’s even worse for Germany as UK starts eating up European income.
Germany fights back USSR in Europe and UK/US in Atlantic? With what army? G2-G3 might not be so bad, but eventually a lack of German ground units will take its toll; if G1 had massive naval investment that’s going to be an ugly G4, if G2 had a followup massive naval investment and even G3, then USSR just starts flexing all over Europe. It’s not even normal USSR development, when USSR sees the G1 buy they start thinking about R2 tank builds, if that doesn’t happen, then certainly you start seeing R3 tank builds if USSR can push and hold in Europe against Germany. If USSR manages to collapse Karelia, then you’re looking at possible USSR income in Norway and Finland, and that’s just a nightmare for the Axis with USSR already fat from income from West Russia, Baltic States, Belorussia, Ukraine, Poland, Bulgaria-Romania, wherever.
- Germany goes hard into Atlantic. Baltic is a dead end, and how does Germany build up in Atlantic, exactly, to meet a combined UK/US fleet? If Germany wants to move its Baltic fleet into the Mediterranean to escape, it has to get past the US build at East US sea zone, and even Germany trying to escape the Baltic as early as G2 may be too late.
We’re saying Germany’s Baltic fleet is carrier, two fighters, then either a cruiser or a destroyer, right? UK’s starting air force on London is 2 fighters 1 bomber, UK can build 2 fighters on UK1 yet still build 3 ground units on India.
So UK can have 4 fighters 1 bomber to challenge Germany’s defensive fleet of 1 destroyer or cruiser, 1 carrier, 2 fighters. UK has superior unit count, superior attack versus defense, and unlike Germany, UK may not hesitate to take on good-odds naval battle.
Germany hesitate to take good-odds naval battles? But why? At the opening of this thread I mentioned Germany’s logistics and starting position. I wrote even if Germany has a good-odds attack on UK/US fleet in Atlantic it may still be best for Germany to decline any such battles, as Germany needs to worry about USSR stacks; if Germany is trading with UK and US and losing German air then that not only weakens Axis options against UK/US in Atlantic later, that also reduces Germany’s ability to challenge the combined Allied Europe land stack. Even if Germany has superior odds, Germany has to roll the dice and risk a lot of air if UK builds a reasonable-sized fleet, and dealing with opening Allied fleet in the Atlantic can mean Germany has merely excellent instead of overwhelming odds.
What that means is if Germany has 4 fighters against UK destroyer, carrier, and two fighters, it may not be a great battle even if Germany accepts a little risk, for strategic reasons. But if UK has 4 fighters and bomber against a German destroyer or cruiser, carrier, and two fighters, yes, UK really can’t afford to replace its air, yes UK ideally wants to get away without building more air so it can load up on faster transports and naval escorts, but on the balance, it’s not strategically wrong for UK to take a good odds battle that will reduce Axis options against Atlantic later and also weaken Axis options against the combined Allied European land stack.
It’s not about IPCs in abstract context, it’s not even about probability distributions, I’m talking about general strategy.
So if UK already has a major threat lined up against a German Baltic fleet and no real reason not to take it, then what? Remember too, even if you switch up scenarios on the fly and say UK air isn’t that strong because UK took casualties in a projected battle against the German battleship, that probably means the German battleship is dead, and since we know US1 built carrier/2 fighters against the possibility of Germany doing G2 7 transport build, we know the US has its own followup of 4 fighters 1 bomber - and that assumes the US China fighter is irrelevant (probably true) and the Hawaiian Islands fighter out of the picture (who knows).
Even if you say Germany immediately tries to unite its Baltic and Mediterranean fleets northwest of France on G2, that’s very possibly German forces of 1 destroyer or cruiser, carrier, two fighters, battleship, against UK 4 fighters 1 bomber on UK2 then US 4 fighters 1 bomber on US2.
But it’s a shifting goalposts argument? It can’t be that UK is building 7 ground on London and 2 fighters? If USSR is moving fighters to London, then those USSR fighters are out of position in Europe and maybe the Allied combined defense can’t stand? Just as the Axis need to make choices, so do the Allies, and the Allies need to defend multiple threats, which is exactly the theoretical strength of Sealion?
That’s why when describing German threats and Allied London defenses I emphasized the actual numbers and how much safety margin the Allies need to play with. When you get panicky new players that realize London might be invaded (oh no!) they use the East Canada transport to move a tank into London, they don’t have any USSR air in range to reinforce London, they build a US battleship or something, they build 6 infantry 2 tanks on London and don’t build in India - just knee-jerk costly overreaction that costs them, and the Axis clean up.
But when you get cold-eyed competent Allied players, everything looks different. Go ahead, Germany, take the 80% chance of London invasion failure, lose your whole air force, I dare you. Go ahead, take your four fighters and hit my destroyer, carrier, and fighters, I’ll replace the fleet which will be costly, but you’ll lose air that Germany can’t really afford to replace that will cost Axis tactical options later. Go right ahead, let’s roll these dice on French West Africa, kill a US destroyer and transport with a German fighter, if you fail you die, if you win the German fighter probably dies to the Allied counter, if the German fighter escapes and Germany fortifies northeast Africa and UK retains its Egypt income, those are all acceptable outcomes. Go right ahead and roll those dice, Germany.
And since the Allies have so much safety margin, they can afford to do things like leave some UK/US fighters on West Russia. You notice how in my projections I didn’t account for the US Szechwan fighter or UK Indian Ocean / Egypt fighters? Because they’re just doing whatever they usually are up to in Asia and/or Europe. The Allies are not panicking, they’re taking the bull by the horns, and if UK/US fighters end up on West Russia on UK2/US2, that’s reasonable and gives the Allies even more options for defense against Sealion.
And to wrap up the “shifting goalposts” counter, I know I’ve thrown a lot at the reader (still horribly oversimplified and leaving a lot out, but oh well). But when I talk about shifting goalposts, in the context of a reasoned argument, I’m not using the sort of shifting goalposts reasoning I’ve seen others try, that after the fact of their committing to build and moves, and an opponent committing to a counter, that they go back in time and change what they had built and moved to begin with. That’s really “shifting goalposts”!, it’s not even a reasoned argument, it’s just silly phantom armies popping out of nowhere (with time travel!)
But when I say it looks like shifting goalposts here - it’s not really. It’s just I’ve thrown so much at the reader it’s hard to keep track of. I mentioned UK can build 7 infantry or 2 fighters on London, it clearly can’t be both, wouldn’t it be magical thinking to say UK can choose? But there’s no magic or time travel involved. Think about the turn order. If G1 builds three transports then UK1 builds 7 infantry after the G1 build. If G1 does not build three transports then UK1 builds 2 fighters after the G1 build. UK simply responds after the fact to the German action.
Just as Germany has reserve options I didn’t dig into, so too do the Allies. I’m not saying the Allies ever have 100% safety at all key locations, that’s exactly the mistake that newer players make that end up costing them in the end. But I am saying the Allies can ramp up the risks to the Axis with reasonable lines, then probably the Axis don’t come off that great.
So you can see already, even if Germany adds its Mediterranean battleship to the Baltic fleet on G2 northeast of France, the German combined fleet can still be destroyed. This is a reasonable projection that Germany needs to anticipate.
So now we say, what if Germany goes heavy in Baltic? Destroyers, submarines, whatever? What I’ve tried to establish so far is Germany’s G2 options may not necessarily be that great if Germany tries to escape the Baltic. But what if Germany doesn’t try to escape?
Let’s say Germany builds a couple destroyers on G2. That’s less ground in Europe. It’s not some horrible situation unless Germany decided to go G1 destroyer and bomber build as well; if Germany went 9 infantry 1 carrier it can get reasonable positions early on.
But then what? Germany hasn’t increased its invasion options against London, UK doesn’t need to build more ground on London. Yes, UK doesn’t want to build air, UK wants to ideally build transports and escorts. But the German Baltic fleet has to be dealt with. So right about then is when the UK India/Egypt fighters start to swing up to West Russia for sure - if India has to be abandoned not great but whatever. So instead of UK2 having 4 fighters 1 bomber, UK3 has perhaps 8 fighters 1 bomber. You can imagine how that might be a problem since the German Med battleship won’t be able to defend the Baltic on G3.
No, the German Med battleship can reach? How? If G2 united with the Baltic fleet northwest of France, you already saw how UK and US probably destroyed the whole fleet. If G2 retreated the Mediterranean battleship back to the Mediterranean and bulked up at Baltic, then maybe you have German destroyer/cruiser, 2 German destroyers, German carrier, 2 German fighters against UK 4 fighters 1 bomber, but if Germany doesn’t do anything more on G3 to defend, the UK3 threat is 8 fighters 1 bomber; superior attack, superior attacker count, no strategic reason not to take the battle.
Just how does Germany get its Mediterranean battleship to join the defense? It just doesn’t happen except in bad theorycrafting because UK and US can blow it up before it gets in range. Or if Germany is assumed to have massive naval buildup maybe then, but that’s just bad theorycrafting in another way, somehow Germany is dropping all these IPCs on navy and what exactly is happening with USSR making grabs for European income? It’s not the worst situation for Germany, there’s some nice options, but it’s not going to be a picnic as the game goes on.
So let’s say by G3 Germany built . . . a carrier! And let’s even say that for argument’s sake we’ll say Germany did a G2 build of 2 destroyers 1 carrier in the Baltic (!) (Remember this is going to mean exactly how many German land units lost to the Europe push down the line?) and somehow Germany didn’t pay through the nose in Africa though Germany kept its battleship in range of the sea zone northwest of France (!) (how this happens I don’t know, but if we’re going to start with some magical assumptions then sure whatever let’s make a few for argument’s sake) and maybe you get G3 combined fleet of two destroyers, destroyer or cruiser, two carriers, four fighters, and battleship northeast of France. I mean, that’s GOT to be good, right? UK3 threat of 8 fighters 1 bomber against superior defender count (UK West Russia fighters reach with a UK carrier build), then there’s a US followup, okay maybe it’s not looking so great after all, but maybe it’s still reasonable.
So there Germany is, all proud of its great accomplishment, and let’s acknowledge the Allied response is going to cost the Allies somewhere. But while we’re admiring Germany’s huge fleet northwest of France, let’s also admire how the Germans spent 44 IPCs on navy leaving far less for USSR to deal with in Europe eventually, and moved 4 fighters to a position that’s totally irrelevant to most of Europe or Africa. Yes, the German positions on G1-G2 may not suffer overmuch, yes Germany still put out ground and is going to get some sort of reasonable position for a while, but all this German expenditure is going to be an issue eventually. And what has Germany really gotten out of this horribly expensive fleet? Long-term income in Africa? Improved logistics to Karelia? Compared to the massive costs, the benefits really aren’t there. Germany looks great in the Atlantic for the moment, but this is Germany’s shining moment then the sun starts to set.
By this time, the Allied position in Europe is so strong and UK/US have so much air, weird new options start opening up.
There are three sea zones around UK. What if UK drops a submarine at each of those sea zones? Germany can hunt isolated submarines down with destroyers at expected net IPC gain in terms of units destroyed/committed? But again, Germany is 44 IPCs down plus fighters out of position against Europe. The Allies have some room to play. And we’re talking about Germany maintaining its G3 fleet off London. How does that happen if builds 3 submarines 1 fighter, Germany splits a destroyer off, then Germany is left with destroyer, two carriers, four fighters, one battleship against UK 1 submarine, 9 fighters, 1 bomber?
But Germany doesn’t maintain its fleet northwest of France? All right, choose. Germany does maintain its fleet northwest of France, improving Germany’s defense timings with a France IC. Do I really need to get into Germany committing 59 IPCs that aren’t in range of Eastern Europe and taking four plus German fighters out of circulation against Europe for the long term? Just take it that Germany gets some compensations, sure, but the costs are huge and the Allies are catching up.
Germany retreats to the Baltic and builds even more navy? All right, so Germany has this massive navy, which was the whole discussion under this 3) point of Germany building up its navy. But then what? The Allies aren’t sweating an invasion of London, the German Baltic navy isn’t fighting in Europe, the Axis aren’t forcing any position Germany can’t do anything about Allied drops to French West Africa so Japan’s going to have some trouble securing income, it’s not super great for the Allies at all. But it’s also not great for the Axis. By this time, USSR is starting to make an income bulge, and there’s just no way that the Axis can prevent the Allies suddenly repositioning all their UK/US fighters into Europe to help defend. You could say there’s something of an Axis game, Japan takes India and Africa and gradually builds up a threat, Germany doesn’t have to worry about defending Berlin so much, Germany has secured Finland and Norway income and denied France to the Allies. But you see the issue here. Germany can’t just keep building carriers, it’s already using 4 of its 5 surviving fighters; if Germany wants to build more naval defense it’s going to be expensive, and mostly is going to turn to tactically inflexible destroyers for cost, or cruisers which can bombard but the Allies already have so much potential defense on London it’s practically useless, so where exactly does Germany go with this huge Baltic fleet while UK and US start dropping subs and saying “come here Germany, let’s start trading!” and if Germany declines then the Allies push for a position where US moves in a destroyer blocker (after Japan, but before Germany so it can’t be stopped), UK built a load of submarines, then you have UK trading a load of cheap submarines and a few air for Germany’s super expensive air force, and when that happens it’s just UK/US bleeding out Germany’s stacks all over again, which would be bad enough in all the previous scenarios, only then we were talking about UK baiting trades that Germany can’t sustain, and now we’re talking about UK just massively outright destroying Germany’s navy on the cheap, which is even worse.
And yes, the Axis most certainly have counterplay and it’s not quite that simple, but you see where Germany holing up in the Baltic isn’t this fantastic solution either. Especially in 1942 Online, it’s not like you can park Japanese fighters on German carriers. Which let’s face it, that change also screwed with Allies KJF options, but the Allies can just choose to go KGF again, and if we’re thinking about the merits of Sealion, then why go Sealion if Germany’s options are not that great? That’s the point of this whole thread.
Or let’s say the Axis retreat into the Mediterranean? All right, if we play the game of what-ifs then you can reasonably say that maybe the Axis do manage to get a big German fleet into the Mediterranean. But then, why didn’t Germany just build a carrier in the Mediterranean in the first place? What did all this expenditure and dancing around in the Baltic really accomplish? You can maybe preserve the Baltic transport, that’s not a bad prize. But if you’re talking about a real risk that you can’t do G2 northwest of France into G3 escape to Mediterranean, then if you’re talking about 44 IPCs of German Baltic navy into G3 northwest of France then G4 escape, then how many turns of drops were missed in Africa and Europe during that time? Was preserving the Baltic transport really worth the cost? It wasn’t. So you get this strictly inferior transposition for Germany’s midgame that plays out similar to if Germany had built a Mediterranean carrier, only it’s just worse all over the place so why do it?
So having addressed all the German navy buildup options you see where it’s not fantastic for Axis either. Yes, you can maybe get some Axis lines that are not too awful. Maybe you drop a load of late transports, then the Allies have to decide between defending West Russia and London, maybe you drop some bombers for Africa, there’s a bunch of Axis options. But the core problems are no good Axis compensation at Africa, USSR gets income at Europe, Allies can reposition fighters to defend Europe, Germany’s Baltic fleet may not well survive, and US can block the German main fleet with a destroyer which it’s easily going to have without even making assumptions; it’s quite late in the game, US knows it wants a destroyer exactly to block Germany from being able to destroy UK subs, Japan’s air threat has to be massive to threaten off a US destroyer/carrier fleet, we know US built a US1 carrier so it could put 2 fighters on against the possibility of Germany doing a G2 7-transport buy . . . we’ve been over it. I know I’m not exploring all the options, but there should be enough that the reader should understand, no matter what Germany’s options, at best you maybe get something reasonable, it’s not really superior.
Maybe you get some sort of GOOD position if an opponent plays inaccurately. That possibility of opponents playing inaccurately if Germany builds up its fighting navy and/or airforce is why there is a “maybe” in the title of this thread. But if an opponent plays accurately, even if the Axis get some nice lines that entertain a jaded player, they’re probably not really mathematically superior. Not with accurate opponent play and reasonable dice.
Germany goes into East Canada. It just doesn’t work against accurate Allied play, it’s too easy for the Allies to threaten to destroy the overextended German fleet while also having a counter to any German invasion of East Canada. Against an unprepared opponent maybe Germany captures Central United States, maybe some nice things happen, but if it was hard enough for Germany to defend northwest of France, defending off East Canada is way harder, and Germany has the added issue that if it sets carriers to be destroyed first, the Allies can retreat after destroying German carriers and German fighters splash into the water.
Germany goes to Africa. See ending of 3); why didn’t the Germans just build a Mediterranean carrier to begin with?
Germany just sits on Baltic 1 carrier 1 transport. UK gets a credible threat, either Germany loses fighters to a bad-odds battle, or is left with a 14 IPC naval unit that defends like a destroyer but doesn’t have its special abilities. You could say Germany can salvage the position, that Germany took a reasonable risk trying to test the Allies to see if they’d play accurately, but it’s really not great for Germany, and it cost 14 IPC for Germany to test those reactions. It’s really expensive.