Hello, General Hand Grenade,
Tossing my hat in for the first time on here, but here we go;
Examining your “Invasion of Hawaii” scenario, I see several effects this could have on the Japanese as follows, and I will break my analysis down step by step:
1.) The Japanese player has put 3 fighters, 3 Tac. Bombers and 1 Strategic Bomber into Hawaii (Alongside the 3 infantry, 2 artillery, and single tank respectively). Fending off against 8 infantry at a defense of 2 or less.
2.) Looking at the naval engagement, you have 1 aircraft carrier, 2 cruisers, and the three transports against 2 fighter class units and 2 submarines. Now the aircraft carrier IS a capital ship and therefore takes two hits to sink; as well as defending on a roll of 2 or less.
The submarines, being able to perform Surprise Strikes can choose to go into the naval battle now that Scrambling has commenced or remain submerged and ignore the combat. Considering the potential for a successful Japanese invasion winning the game, it is probable the US player will bring them in to prevent that.
Moving on with the naval battle, the subs fire, presuming, by odds at least one of them hits, then the Japanese player must assume a hit and therefore weigh their options to cripple the carrier and make it unusable for planes or lose a cruiser. The obvious option is to lose the carrier (cripple or otherwise lose completely). My reasoning for this will come up later.
Once the subs have fired, general combat begins and, unfortunately chances are at least one of the planes will hit and which case you lose either a cruiser or the carrier (provided of course it is still alive after the subs strike). The best scenario is to again, lose the carrier first. My reasoning is that although it means two planes no longer have a landing zone within range, this is negligible as, considering what the Japanese player sent in to invade Hawaii with, and how many units the US is defending with, ultimately you WILL lose at least 2, if not 3-4 planes. With this in mind, it would make sense to use the carrier as cannon fodder to absorb hits.
Now provided of course, the dice are in your favor, you will likely come out of the first round of naval combat with at least one cruiser and the US will have lost their planes, and potentially a submarine. Once the planes are gone, the best course of action for the US player depends on if they still have their submarines AND, how many naval warships are still in the zone.
IF the US has both subs and the Japanese have only 1 cruiser, or have lost ALL ships then they should remain and sink whatever is left as well as the transports, effectively neutralizing the Japanese threat, however, otherwise it would be better for them to submerge so they will be available for a counter strike on the US’s next turn.
IF they have 1 sub and the Japanese have 1 cruiser then they go go for the gambit, but again, the safer bet is to submerge or retreat for similar reasons as the above argument.
Now then, for final analysis, assuming by general odds the Japanese player has come out on top with either one cruiser or just the transports and the US has lost all naval units or submereged subs, and the Japanese have won their naval engagements, they must conduct Non-Combat in which the planes can return to their carriers off Midway or the Japanese player can move the carriers to the sea one around Hawaii to face the counter attack. Most likely, as I said earlier you’ve lost the fighter and Tactical bomber who only had 1 movement left anyway as well as the Strategic bomber (As let’s face it, at this point it has less value than the other aircraft) but the remaining aircraft have homes on the remaining carriers.
NOW, I would like to point out, that in sea zone 33, from which the transports came, you left a destroyer behind which, considering what the Japanese were intending to do, should have brought the ship along as though it means no naval bombardment, it would have prevented the subs from having surprise strikes in the first place.
That aside, during non combat, the Japanese player can bring down the carriers, land the planes and bring the destroyer up and that would serve as a good deterrent from a US naval counter. Reasonably though, the destroyer should have been brought in from the start as otherwise this operation is a bit too precarious to be risking the game on as, having gone frame by frame in the video, it seems that not only do the Japanese NOT have any ships in position for a second turn attempt, but, they only have 1 at most 2 transports, a submarine, a single battleship and carrier with tactical bomber aboard it as the remainder of their fleet, which unless in their purchase for that turn they have more warships, they will be in a grinder as the US will have time to rebuild and come into the Pacific while the Japanese are in a vice as, looking at the mainland of Asia, they haven’t made much progress inland to China or any real gains towards India who IS in the war as Hong Kong IS in Japanese hands meaning they attacked either on that turn or previous and now, by having already attacked the US previously they face three nations at war with, at current, a much greater combined economy and better position to crush them.
Hope this was a good enough analysis,