I have a couple of points on this thread.
First off, if there are other targets of opportunity on Japan r1, i don’t hesitate in letting the US pearl fleet live. i don’t think the pearl is a must hit in every situation. Cases where the allies are stacking India, maybe an IC built there, and stacking bury. When there is a red stack of inf in Bury, i like nothing more then destroying them. But if better targets arent available, you have to kill that fleet. AC and fighter are too juicey to pass up.
Second, producing only 3 tanks and 1 inf per round isnt going to generate the kind of pressure in asia you want. If the allies decide to put up resistance in India/China/bury, you wont be able to push with those forces alone on that, and if they don’t resist that strongly, you need more force at moscow/cauc doorstep than that. There will be several rounds you swap terr with Russia. And as a previous post noted, you want to swap inf with them instead of tanks. Russia will give up and inf for a tank anyday.
Third, As I have stated in other threads, i think a r1 Factory buy is a mistake. You already have one factory that produces 8 units per turn. when you buy the second, you can produce 11 units per turn. Japan isn’t ready to produce 11 land units to asia per turn by r1. So why buy the factory if you have not yet maximized the production potential you started the game with?
Fourth - I think your example assume the us is building navy to kill you with? otherwise, if the usa has pulled out of the pacific, no reason to turtle them. Even if they are building up navy, you still have time to do things like take Australia.