Oh I agree it’s a gamble and like any big gamble if it doesnt go your way it’s a bit of a disaster.
But given that I’ve seen Germany take a pretty bulked out France with barely any losses, it’s something to be considered. And when comparing the two outcomes, leaves you in more or less the same place.
However if the rolls do go your way, you can have a pretty effective fighting force capable of independent action in Africa or the Middle East.
Something to consider at any rate. Especially if you fancy trying something different.