Topics created by syntaxerror111

Obviously this is a niche strategy, but there could be some use for it - it may allow the Allies to take one of the money islands as soon as US3. Here’s the plan

UK 1:
Unite Pac fleets in sz 30, build IC Aus

Attacking sz 30 is very risky for Japan, and it forces Japan to either to do Pearl light (with more risk of an unfavourable outcome) or skip Pearl altogether.

If Japan does not hit sz 30, build AC, fig, sub, trn on US1.

UK 2:
Move sz 30 fleet to sz 40, build AC sz 40

This threatens a unification of the UK/US fleets in sz 45 on US2/UK3. This combined fleet would consist of BB, 3 AC, 5 fig, 2 sub, 2 DD, 3 trn. This is too much for Japan to take on. If you add the 6th fig on US3/UK4 (and perhaps a UK sub that you build on UK3), you can take Bor or EI on these turns. Your combined Allied fleet would be so large that Japan has to bring something along the lines of 2 BB, 2 AC, 6 fig, bomber, DD, 5 trn, 4 sub to have a good shot at it, which requires a serious investment in the first few turns.

Without the UK IC, you would not have the extra UK carrier - a loaded carrier can make a big difference, and it may save you one turn in bringing down the Japanese in the Pacific. Of course, it comes at a substantial cost against Germany - that’s why it’s not played in most games, but it’s worth a try perhaps.

Japan can try to thwart your unification by moving its fleet to sz 45 itself on J2. I’d have to double check whether that is a worthwhile strategy.

@syntaxerror111:

Recently I came up with an equation for determining the chance of success when rolling for tech in A&A Revised. It is as follows:

(1 – (5/6)^n) * 100
Where n is the number of dice purchased.

ex. 3 dice = (1 - (5/6)3) * 100  =  (1 - 125/216) * 100  =  42% (rounded down)

I have written a proof for this, but the scanned image is too large to attach per forum standards (I think the max is around 256Kb, and the file is 1.16Mb). If anyone is interested I can type the proof and post it later, but if not thats ok b/c I am lazy by nature.

even some experts around here like <cmdrjennifer>have incorrect statistical proofs in some of their posts.  here’s the proof for this one (nice job <syntaxerror111>).  P() is the probability function:

P( success ) = 1 - P( all fail )
and
P( all fail ) = P( trial#1 fails AND trial#2 fails AND … )
assuming rolls of a die are independent and identically distributed, then:
P( all fail ) = [ P( single fail ) ]number_of_trials
assuming a fair die:
P( single fail ) = 5/6
let n=number_of_trials, and
P( success ) = 1 - (5/6)n
if you prefer probabilities in %, multiply by 100%.  i personally do not.

here’s a table:
trials P( all fail ) P( success )
0 1.00 0.00
1 0.83 0.17
2 0.69 0.31
3 0.58 0.42
4 0.48 0.52
5 0.40 0.60
6 0.33 0.67
7 0.28 0.72
8 0.23 0.77
9 0.19 0.81
10 0.16 0.84</syntaxerror111></cmdrjennifer>

@syntaxerror111:

@Col.Stauffenberg:

I move the two subs down to sea zone 7, the rest of the med navy and other sub attack the battle ship (with figs). My opponent attacked the remaing baltic with his air force. He leaves the subs alone because he can only attack it with  his navy, which would put it in range of mine + all my planes in round 2. He has to choose what his air force attacks because it’s to risky to split them up. Sure this tactic delays me in Africa but it helps secure the Med and with a round 1 purchase of all men + 1 art, I can afford the delay. The us bomber has a crack at the subs but at the least I’ll keep one. Two or three subs, BB + tran is a good thing to have in the Med in round 2.

If I were your opponent in this situation I would have attacked the two lone subs with air on UK1 and the rest of the baltic fleet on UK2. You would most likely lose the Baltic fleet and both subs- if one sub survives the US Bmb gets a shot at as well.

@Zhukov44:

Fine with me. Those boats are expendable. If I get to keep the destroyer and Trans for another round, that’s just a bonus. I can get more infantry to a front, I can block, I can use to attack, uk has to make sure they build enough land forces to resist an invasion, which limits their options, like if they build boats or an Indian IC and drop their troops in Norway or Africa and leave their capitol insufficiently guarded. GER goes before uk anyway so they can build an AC round 2 if they really want to protect the fleet, but that’s something I’d never do anyway. Germany CANNOT afford any delays against Russia.

Trying to save those subs is a gamble, I’ll give you that, but the benefits of them surviving outweigh any negative I’ve encountered.