That is the problem: Germany is strong enough to take Moscow on G5. Unless Germany makes a serious mistake or something goes badly awry with dice, it has the force it needs waiting beside Moscow to attack on G5.
G1 DOW seems a bit trickier for Germany to me because it allows Russia more money and options earlier, and Germany still has to wait for G5 for the infantry to reach Moscow. G1 DOW allows the Russians to move south on R1. That might just provide enough to make a difference on G5, but not if you send 2 tanks and 2 mechs south to take Iraq (the extra pair would require an extra turn to reach, squandering the earlier Russian move on Persia by the G1 DOW.) Instead one would need to use the 2 INF and the Stalingrad Mech/Tank pair. None of these survivors will return in time, only the air will.
The UK has a hard time shuttling fighters from Persia before G5 because without an airfield it is a 2 turn trip. To have both would require spending 27 IPC’s on turn 2 for the airfield and IC. Then turn 3 one would be spending essentially all of the UK’s income on fighters to fly to Moscow on turn 4 to try to stop the G5 attack. The UK will also be able to get the mech or tank there that was transported over to Persia on UK1. Of course, all of that would weaken the hold on Egypt in the early rounds and prevent occupying Greece.
How does the UK fail with Italy? All sorts of ways, and it starts with Germany’s first round attack and moves. There are two German first round naval strategies I like in this regard and both forego the SZ 110 attack. I don’t need to sink all of the big boys, they are useless without transports and vulnerable to air later. Instead a single sub is sent to 111 along with the BB and plenty of air to kill half the Home Fleet and a Scotland scramble (if the UK opts for it.) Similarly two subs are sent against the destroyer and transport in England’s home waters at SZ 109, along with lots of air, daring the UK to scramble up to 4. If the UK doesn’t scramble there is about 1/3 chance that it will have two subs sitting there and no destroyers to clear them.
The decision fork in this is how the other two subs are used: 1. Both vs. the transport/destroyer off Canada in SZ 106–fairly good chance of success along with the SZ 109 attack stripping the Atlantic of UK transports and protecting Norway for a few turns so that everyone there can head for Leningrad. But the transport can survive even if the destroyer is lost (if the second sub is at the same time, 25% of the time or so.) 2. Sending both subs against the cruiser in SZ 91–90% of success and often leaving two subs there threatening follow up attack in 111 the next turn. 3. Gambling big time by splitting the final two subs between 91 and and 106–winning both simultaneously with both subs surviving is only 20% overall. 20% of the time both subs die with no kills. The first time I tried the gamble it paid off fully, with Germany having 3 or more surviving subs, and UK no destroyers or transports in the Atlantic and Taranto/Malta attacks nerfed because of the action as well. UK had to buy destroyers…and got diced vs. subs with them.
Germany can land aircraft in southern Italy G1 to scramble against Taranto. This preserves some of Italy’s air for Med action and Italy usually buys a fighter on I1 anyway. With Italy taking Southern France and possibly Gibraltar on I1, it has a chance of getting a few turns of both the Med NO bonus and the Greece/Gibraltar/Southern France one while keeping UK busy in Africa. It depends heavily on the dice of these small actions and how many transports survived. Italy can put pressure on Egypt at the start. If the UK is unlucky with Taranto, sinking the Italian destroyer/transport around Malta, an early strafe attack or defense around Egypt, then Italy will be in good shape.
The last two times I have played through this Italy has gotten horribly diced. I actually recorded some early stats this last time for Italy: Italy’s average dice roll was over 4.1 (3.5 would be balanced, which is what UK had.) Italy only rolled 1 four times, 2 five times, and 3 ten times in 57 rolls. (Neutral allies rolled 2.9…with lots of 1’s and 2’s in Yugoslavia and Greece vs. Italy and Germany for 9 kills in 20 rolls.) A “99+%” attack failed gloriously and catastrophically. Still, Italy was able to clear the Med and occupy Gibraltar and eventually take Greece later. The sub-Saharan Africa forces were then dispersed to grab 1 IPC territories rather than threaten Egypt.
In that game, with the Persian IC, Moscow still fell on G5, despite the Germans losing 4 infantry on the single G1 Yugo “strafe.” I will have to go back to the early save after those Axis setbacks to see if I can play it better as the allies, maybe try building the airfield in Persia.