Interesting and intriguing strategy! I’m with you 75% of the way, and would like to hear you expand on a few additional components.
First, what is France doing? I agree that they are likely to reinforce Burgundy in some fashion. With Belgium free of Germany troops, they’ll likely move one infantry there from Picardy, and then have all the forces in Picardy and Paris at a minimum to play around with. There’s a good chance they will withdraw (or leave just 1 guy) in Lorraine giving them access to those troops for redeployment as well. Their objectives will likely be to activate Belgium, and reinforce both Burgundy and Piedmont. Not to beat the Central Powers, but to slow them down by a turn or two. As you mentioned, if Rome hasn’t fallen by the end of Germany’s turn 4, the Central Powers are in big trouble. How will your strategy adapt, if at all, to France’s moves?
Second, your strategy addresses what to do about Russia if Russia overextends and attacks Galicia on the first turn. What if, instead, they use their first turn to consolidate a huge stack of units in Poland on turn one and then attack somewhere in a huge mass (Prussia, Silesia, or Galicia) on their turn 2? Such a move would put them adjacent to either Berlin or Vienna.
Third, even with the loss of Italy the Entente and Central Powers will be roughly equal when it comes to IPC access, assuming the Ottomans are still cohesive (which is a pretty big if). The entry of the US puts the Entente ahead again. How will this strategy continue to overcome that economic disparity after the fall of Rome?