I got hit last week by a sea lion on G2. And lost…famously in fact.
On G1 I lost all of my fleet with exception of my med cruiser and atlantic units, which are needed to block the Eastern Gibraltar lane (preventing the Eye-Ties to go for Gibraltar which I would do as Italian player till the US-Cavalry comes storming in…)
G1 my opponent bought like 4 or 5 transports and some artillery, and as i decided to put a minor force in scotland (dunno why i thought it important at that time (scared for a threat to Iceland and Canada I think to delay my GI´s and Cavalry) but whatever, my 9 INF which i placed in Britain were not enough to repel the coastal bombardment with 8 land units and the combined strengt of the German Luftwaffe. Those airplanes are doing a lot of damage to ur units and the Germans just have more of them than the Brits. So next time I see the German player build an invasion fleet, I will throw 9 INF and everything I can get into London. Which may or may not be enough. Just doing the math, it is touch and go if the German player is dedicated, and if u throw lousy the German player may even break-even on the IPC´s, sail back on G3 to Russia and attack there on G4 (England-invasion troups in the Baltics and the troops that swept through the Balkans going for the southern INvasion route)
I think that if the German player wants to go sea-lion, he must do so on turn 2.
Imho, these games are still somewhat based on a 6month/turn timetable, which would put G2 for Sea Lion, or G3-4 for Barbarossa and amazingly, US 4-5 for Marocco, Tunisia and threatening to take southern France in the near future. And amazingly, that is just how the game can be played
Secondly, I think that if u want to win as axis, u must strike fast and decisively. The Germans have an enormous advantage in army strength at the beginning which will only get smaller as the game goes due to the Russian and American build-up. So u want to throw all u have in play on ur first 3 turns.
Which brings me to the last point… why would a german player want to buy a carrier on turn 1…? cant find a reason. built the thing with some tin cans after taking England ^^