Good idea comparing it to the other common way of protecting SZ5:

Norwegian gambit w/1FIG –> successful? --Yes–> G can take Egypt easily, not SZ5
                                                        _No__–> G comfortably takes Egypt and SZ5

FIG to Egypt –> force G to choose –—> take Egypt easily, SZ5 impossible
                                                _–> take SZ5 comfortably, avoid Egypt
                                                  _–>take both, but G risks catastrophe

In the case G does try for both, the best it can muster is 63% win in LL and 52% in dice, both of which carry a 6% chance of losing the BB.

Also remember, failure to take Egypt almost guarantees a sunk German BB on UK1 (in my book at least), as Suez is open and/or there is another UK FIG hanging around (G going for Trans Jordan doesn’t save it of this fate).

I don’t know, maybe it’s playing risky to put a Russian FIG in harm’s way, but Russia can build another?  And the potential gain for Allies is very large.  What I would be interested to know is as an Axis player, what would your response be to an extra FIG in Egypt?

R1 Russian Fighter to Egypt + take Ukraine?

Here are the stats for G1 attempt on Egypt:
German odds to win with 1 land unit left in low-luck.  All moves assume moving BB to SZ15, transporting inf+arm to Egypt, and moving in inf+arm from Libya.  Possible loss of transport taken into account where applicable.

SZ15; Egypt = Defending Rus. FIG / no Rus. FIG
-; FIG + BMB  = .97 / 1*^
-; FIG           = .63 / .98^
-; BMB         = .77 / .99*^
FIG; BMB       = .81 / 1*
FIG; -           = .04 /.68

*Prevent G attack on sz 2 (uk BB + TR)
^6% chance G loses BB

The way I see it in LL is you are letting G make the choice between taking Egypt at 63% and keeping SZ2 option, or passing on SZ2 to take Egypt at a more comfortable .97 (and taking a Rus FIG to boot).   What do you think?  Is this a viable strategy for Allied player?

(Edit, here are the dice probabilities, for those interested)

-; FIG + BMB  = .87 / .99*^
-; FIG           = .52 / .88^
-; BMB         = .60 / .92*^
FIG; BMB       = .61 / .93*
FIG; -           = .18 /.59

Has anyone come up with any good house rules for getting American and Japan to fight each other more?  I suppose you could simply declare that Japan and Russia are not allowed to engage each other…but that would effectively split the game into two separate halves.  I’m just tired of the very un-historical way that over 90% of games play out.  Zero-IPC islands are always ignored, and half of Asia turns yellow before there is any chance of an Axis victory.  Creating a magical wall between Japan and Russia would, IMO, give the allies an advantage in Europe.  Maybe that could be balanced by lowering Russia’s power somehow?  Just thinking out loud here.  I know there is the non-aggression treaty NA, but I’ve found that it just slows the inevitable outcome of Japan stacking up outside of Moscow.  Any thoughts?