I recently played a game as the axis against someone I knew who liked to use the U.S. to invade Algeria in Round 1. I usually will use the German sub in SZ 8 on Round 1 to destroy the lone British transport in SZ 1. However, knowing my opponent to launch operation torch on Round 1, I decided to move my German sub from SZ 8 to SZ 10 and attack the U.S. cruiser and two transports. I won the battle and thought I was just lucky, but I later calculated the odds of winning using TripleA and found it to be almost even at 49% attacker and 51% defender.
The question: Is it worth the risk to lose a German sub on R1 to destroy the U.S. capacity to land in Africa?
Things to consider:
UK having two transports on R1 to invade Norway
Possibility of using German Mediterranean fleet to attack British cruiser in SZ 13 on R1 instead of Egypt, so as to take Brazil on R2.
How do you reinforce Norway on R1 against imminent British invasion?