I have been playing with this strategy and I have come to a few conclusions:
If Germany moves its AA gun in SE Europe to the Balkans and if Japan takes India quickly-securing its AA gun, the Axis can have 4 rocket attacks and two bomber attacks on USSR with only the purchase of one AA gun and Industrial Center by Japan in French Indo China plus the cost of development by both Japan and Germany. If the Axis were able to get in this position they will bring an average of 3.5 IPC losses to the USSR from each rocket (even on the Caucuses because any roll over 4 still takes four IPC’s and 4 is greater than the average roll of 3.5) for a 14 IPC loss from rockets alone. The two bombers will contribute an additional 7 IPC loss 70% of the time (the odds of both bombers getting through) and 3.5 IPC loss 97% of the time (the odds of no bomber getting through is 16.66% * 16.66%=2.77%). Thus the Axis should be able to bring a 17 to 21 IPC loss the vast majority of the time resulting in a near incapacity for the USSR to build new units by the third turn. This does not take into account the losses of IPC’s by England from the Western Europe rockets or any losses by the USA if Japan moves its homeland AA gun to Wake, or the permanent losses in IPC’s from capturing USSR territory.
Obviously, if the Allies can threaten Germany by the third round the money would be wasted and potentially a crippling loss to the Axis. I doubt such a serious challenge can be mounted against Germany that quickly however.
I believe the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of this strategy succeeding. Of course it is relying on a dice roll, but so is every action in this game.
Without changing the economic dynamic of the game, I believe the Allies are the definite favorite to win. My own empirical experience is that the allies win 4 in 5. The reason why this strategy is compelling is the fact that so many of the pieces necessary for its success are already in place by the start of the game and the necessary investment to complete the strategy is relatively minor compared to its potential payoff: Domination over USSR very quickly!
The Allies have far fewer pieces in place at the beginning of the game if you don’t allow USSR to develop rockets (Their resources are just too meager to try), and Germany starts from a position of vastly superior economic strength. Thus, the Allies must spend much more money and effort to produce a result with less impact. Besides the Allies already have an economic advantage which they need to leverage in to winning battles.
In conclusion (sorry for the long post), I am not suggesting that rocket development and SBR are the only paths to victory for the Axis—just a high probability play. But overall, I think that for the Axis ECONOMIC CONCERNS must dictate their strategy and for the Allies TACTICAL CONCERNS must dictate their strategy.
What do you think?