On first thought, I’d say yes because:
- in December, 1941 Moscow was saved by experienced “siberian” troops, which Stalin placed in Siberia for political reasons. Had Japan invaded Siberia in middle 1941, Stalin would have probably sent his troops on eastern front, because he trusted Germany for some reason (he actually didn’t believe Germany was invading for the first hours of invasion, see e.g. P Carrell). This would have given a bigger chance at taking Moscow, Leningrad and Caucasus.
- the only time Russia was defeated in her long history, she was attacked from the east, and if cavalrymen from Mongolia succeded in doing that, I think Japanese generals would have done it as well. Just consider there is a big straight railroad that crosses all inhabitated Siberia, granting for supply and reinforcements from Manchuria.
On the other side, though, even if Axis would have succeded at taking Moscow, it should have to fight an hard and spread guerrilla, because of the intense political faith of '40s Soviet citizens, and it is unclear which consequences it could bring.