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L25 PTV axis-dom (axis+14) vs adam - rematch

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• • • axis-dominion

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TripleA Turn Summary: French round 16
TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History
Round: 16 Purchase Units - ANZAC ANZAC buy 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 submarine; Remaining resources: 3 PUs; Combat Move - ANZAC Non Combat Move - ANZAC 2 fighters moved from Java to Queensland 2 aaGuns, 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 4 infantry moved from New South Wales to Queensland 1 destroyer moved from 64 Sea Zone to 55 Sea Zone 1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from Johnston Island to 31 Sea Zone 1 artillery, 1 carrier, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 5 infantry, 1 submarine, 2 tactical_bombers and 3 transports moved from 31 Sea Zone to 55 Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from 55 Sea Zone to New Guinea 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from 55 Sea Zone to Queensland Place Units - ANZAC 1 submarine placed in 64 Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in New South Wales Turn Complete - ANZAC ANZAC collect 9 PUs; end with 12 PUs Objective ANZAC 3 Pacific Supply Lines: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 15 PUs Combat Move - French Turn Complete - French
Combat Hit Differential Summary :

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L25 BM4 Adam514 (Axis) vs peirce (Allies+14)

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• • • Adam514

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TripleA Turn Summary: Italians round 8
TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3

Game History
Round: 8 Combat Move - Italians Non Combat Move - Italians 2 armour and 2 fighters moved from Northwest Persia to Iraq 1 aaGun and 1 infantry moved from Albania to Yugoslavia Turn Complete - Italians
Combat Hit Differential Summary :

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Violate a true neutrals?

Axis & Allies Global 1940
• • • zooooma

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@zooooma said in Violate a true neutrals?:

What’s the actual benefit that I am missing?

@SuperbattleshipYamato Is correct.

Normally the Italian fleet would be sunk and the Allies have the Mediterranean under their control before the circumstances might occur that it makes sense for the Axis to hit an under guarded Allied fleet off of SZ91. Therefore, it is impossible to take anything by sea leaving Spain as the only possibility.
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Why is the Caspian Sea not labelled?

Axis & Allies Global 1940
• • • SuperbattleshipYamato

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@zooooma it has a number?
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L25 PTV Peirce (X+10) vs MikawaGunichi (Allies)

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• • • mikawagunichi

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TripleA Turn Summary: Japanese round 11
TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History
Round: 11 Purchase Units - Japanese Japanese buy 1 artillery, 3 destroyers, 6 infantry, 1 submarine, 2 tactical_bombers and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens; Combat Move - Japanese 1 fighter moved from 7 Sea Zone to 9 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 43 Sea Zone to 58 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 55 Sea Zone to 31 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 132 Sea Zone to 40 Sea Zone 1 transport moved from 43 Sea Zone to 38 Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Malaya to 38 Sea Zone 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 38 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 43 Sea Zone to Java 1 transport moved from 43 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Shan State to 132 Sea Zone 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 132 Sea Zone to 38 Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 38 Sea Zone to Sumatra 1 submarine moved from 43 Sea Zone to 40 Sea Zone Japanese take 42 Sea Zone from Americans 1 bomber moved from Queensland to Sumatra 1 fighter moved from New Guinea to 58 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from New Guinea to Java 2 artilleries and 1 infantry moved from Yunnan to Szechwan 1 armour moved from French Indo China to Szechwan 2 infantry moved from Kyushu to 7 Sea Zone 2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 7 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from 7 Sea Zone to Anhwe 1 infantry moved from Shantung to Anhwe 2 artilleries and 1 infantry moved from Shantung to Kiangsu 2 infantry moved from 20 Sea Zone to Kiangsu 1 tactical_bomber moved from 7 Sea Zone to Kiangsu 1 fighter moved from Kwangsi to Szechwan 1 fighter moved from French Indo China to 40 Sea Zone 2 fighters moved from 43 Sea Zone to 40 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from French Indo China to Sumatra 2 fighters moved from 132 Sea Zone to Sumatra 1 infantry moved from Kweichow to Szechwan Combat - Japanese Battle in 9 Sea Zone Japanese attack with 1 fighter Americans defend with 1 transport 1 transport owned by the Americans lost in 9 Sea Zone Japanese win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Americans: 1 transport Battle in 40 Sea Zone Japanese attack with 1 destroyer, 3 fighters and 1 submarine British defend with 1 submarine; Americans defend with 1 transport Japanese roll dice for 1 submarine in 40 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 submarine owned by the British lost in 40 Sea Zone Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer and 3 fighters in 40 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.83 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 transport in 40 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/0 hits, 0.00 expected hits 1 transport owned by the Americans lost in 40 Sea Zone Japanese win, taking 40 Sea Zone from Americans with 1 destroyer, 3 fighters and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12 Casualties for British: 1 submarine Casualties for Americans: 1 transport Battle in Java Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 1 infantry Americans defend with 1 artillery Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Java, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1.17 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 artillery in Java, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Java, round 3 : 3/3 hits, 1.17 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 artillery in Java, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 artillery owned by the Americans lost in Java Japanese win, taking Java from Americans with 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4 Casualties for Americans: 1 artillery Battle in Kiangsu Japanese attack with 2 artilleries, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber Chinese defend with 1 infantry Japanese roll dice for 2 artilleries, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Kiangsu, round 2 : 4/6 hits, 2.00 expected hits Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Kiangsu, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Kiangsu 1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Kiangsu Japanese win, taking Kiangsu from Chinese with 2 artilleries, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0 Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry Battle in Szechwan Japanese attack with 1 armour, 2 artilleries, 1 fighter and 2 infantry Chinese defend with 2 infantry Japanese roll dice for 1 armour, 2 artilleries, 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Szechwan, round 2 : 2/6 hits, 2.33 expected hits Chinese roll dice for 2 infantry in Szechwan, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 2 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Szechwan Japanese win, taking Szechwan from Chinese with 1 armour, 2 artilleries, 1 fighter and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Chinese: 2 infantry Battle in Sumatra Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 3 fighters and 1 infantry Americans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 infantry and 1 marine Americans roll AA dice in Sumatra : 0/3 hits, 0.50 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 3 fighters and 1 infantry in Sumatra, round 2 : 3/6 hits, 2.67 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 aaGun, 1 infantry and 1 marine in Sumatra, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Sumatra 1 aaGun owned by the Americans, 1 infantry owned by the Americans and 1 marine owned by the Americans lost in Sumatra Japanese win, taking Sumatra from Americans with 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 3 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 10 Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry Casualties for Americans: 1 aaGun, 1 infantry and 1 marine Battle in 58 Sea Zone Japanese attack with 1 destroyer and 1 fighter British defend with 1 submarine Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in 58 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.83 expected hits British roll dice for 1 submarine in 58 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits 1 submarine owned by the British lost in 58 Sea Zone Japanese win with 1 destroyer and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for British: 1 submarine Battle in 31 Sea Zone Japanese attack with 1 destroyer Americans defend with 1 submarine Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer in 31 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in 31 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer in 31 Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in 31 Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer in 31 Sea Zone, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in 31 Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits 1 submarine owned by the Americans lost in 31 Sea Zone Japanese win with 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Americans: 1 submarine Battle in Anhwe Japanese attack with 1 fighter and 1 infantry Chinese defend with 1 infantry Japanese roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Anhwe, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Anhwe, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Anhwe 1 fighter owned by the Japanese retreated Chinese win with 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -3 Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry Non Combat Move - Japanese 1 artillery moved from Jehol to Shantung 1 fighter moved from Anhwe to Shantung 1 carrier moved from 7 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone 1 tactical_bomber moved from Kiangsu to 7 Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from Kyushu to 7 Sea Zone 2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 7 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from 36 Sea Zone to Davao 1 fighter moved from Java to 43 Sea Zone 1 carrier moved from 132 Sea Zone to 38 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from 40 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone 2 fighters moved from 40 Sea Zone to 38 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Szechwan to French Indo China 1 aaGun moved from Yunnan to French Indo China 1 infantry moved from French Indo China to Yunnan 1 fighter moved from 9 Sea Zone to 7 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 17 Sea Zone to 7 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from 7 Sea Zone to Buryatia 1 fighter moved from Caroline Islands to 20 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from 58 Sea Zone to Western Australia 1 infantry moved from New South Wales to Queensland 1 fighter moved from Sumatra to Malaya 2 fighters moved from Sumatra to 132 Sea Zone 1 bomber moved from Sumatra to Malaya 1 tactical_bomber moved from 7 Sea Zone to Davao 1 infantry moved from Kwangsi to Kweichow 1 artillery moved from Kwangsi to French Indo China Place Units - Japanese 2 destroyers, 1 submarine, 2 tactical_bombers and 1 transport placed in 7 Sea Zone 3 infantry placed in Japan 1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in French Indo China 1 infantry placed in Malaya 1 destroyer and 1 transport placed in 64 Sea Zone Turn Complete - Japanese Japanese collect 64 PUs; end with 64 PUs Objective Japanese 6 Home Islands: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 67 PUs Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 72 PUs Objective Japanese 3 Control Honolulu Or Sydney Or Calcutta Or Western United States: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 77 PUs Objective Japanese 2 Strategic Defense Perimeter: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 82 PUs
Combat Hit Differential Summary :
Chinese regular : 0.67 Americans regular : -0.83 Japanese regular : 3.00 Americans AA : -0.50 British regular : -0.17
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Gamerman01 (Axis+11) vs. VictoryFirst (Allies) | Classic 2025 Tournament, Losers Round 2

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• • • VictoryFirst

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Thanks! I wish I could just type @The_Good_Captai(n) in 1990 and the rules expert genie would pop out and give me the rules answers!

Yes, Victory_First or a friend of his whipped up the unit count check not long ago. It went off when I was doing combat move and ended the phase and I had 16 stacks. It’s too bad it doesn’t show a constant count of everything, but this is waaaaay better than nothing.

Thanks for the quick confirmation.
It wasn’t a total lunge because I let Egypt go as I think he’s going to take France anyway. Thanks for the props, means a lot.
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L25 PtV Daaras (Allies) vs Nikola1975 (Axis + 12)

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• • • nikola1975

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TripleA Turn Summary: Japanese round 4
TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History
Round: 4 Purchase Units - Japanese Japanese buy 2 artilleries, 1 carrier, 1 factory_minor, 8 infantry, 1 submarine and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens; Combat Move - Japanese 1 armour moved from Siberia to Amur Japanese take Amur from Russians 1 armour moved from Amur to Sakha Japanese take Sakha from Russians 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Sumatra to 42 Sea Zone 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 42 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone 1 artillery moved from 132 Sea Zone to Shan State 1 infantry moved from 132 Sea Zone to Shan State 1 bomber moved from French Indo China to Eastern India 1 infantry moved from Shansi to Anhwe 1 artillery moved from Jehol to Anhwe 1 tactical_bomber moved from Kiangsu to Anhwe 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 7 Sea Zone to Anhwe 2 infantry moved from Kwangtung to Hunan 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers moved from French Indo China to Hunan 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 36 Sea Zone to Hunan 1 marine moved from Celebes to 45 Sea Zone 1 cruiser and 1 marine moved from 45 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone 1 marine moved from 132 Sea Zone to Shan State 1 carrier moved from 42 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone 1 tactical_bomber moved from 42 Sea Zone to 38 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from 42 Sea Zone to Shan State 1 artillery moved from Java to 43 Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 transport moved from 43 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone 1 artillery moved from 132 Sea Zone to Shan State 1 infantry moved from French Indo China to Shan State 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Manilla to 36 Sea Zone 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 132 Sea Zone to Shan State 1 carrier moved from 36 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 35 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone 1 marine moved from Caroline Islands to 35 Sea Zone 1 cruiser and 1 marine moved from 35 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone 1 marine moved from 132 Sea Zone to Shan State 1 battleship and 1 carrier moved from 35 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from 35 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 45 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone 1 carrier moved from 7 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 6 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone Combat - Japanese Strategic bombing raid in Eastern India UK_Pacific roll AA dice in Eastern India : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Bombing raid in Eastern India rolls: 4 and causes: 4 damage to unit: factory_major Bombing raid in Eastern India causes 4 damage total. Battle in 38 Sea Zone Japanese attack with 1 tactical_bomber British defend with 1 transport 1 transport owned by the British lost in 38 Sea Zone Japanese win with 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for British: 1 transport Battle in Hunan Japanese attack with 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers Chinese defend with 1 artillery and 3 infantry Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers in Hunan, round 2 : 3/7 hits, 3.17 expected hits Chinese roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Hunan, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits 2 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Hunan 3 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Hunan 2 fighters owned by the Japanese and 3 tactical_bombers owned by the Japanese retreated Chinese win with 1 artillery remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Japanese: 2 infantry Casualties for Chinese: 3 infantry Battle in Shan State Japanese attack with 3 artilleries, 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 2 marines British defend with 1 infantry Japanese roll dice for 1 battleship and 2 cruisers in Shan State, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits UK_Pacific roll dice for 1 infantry in Shan State, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Shan State Japanese win, taking Shan State from UK_Pacific with 3 artilleries, 1 fighter, 3 infantry and 2 marines remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for British: 1 infantry Battle in Anhwe Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers Chinese defend with 1 artillery and 3 infantry Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers in Anhwe, round 2 : 2/5 hits, 2.33 expected hits Chinese roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Anhwe, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Anhwe 2 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Anhwe Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers in Anhwe, round 3 : 2/4 hits, 2.00 expected hits Chinese roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Anhwe, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 artillery owned by the Japanese lost in Anhwe 1 infantry owned by the Chinese and 1 artillery owned by the Chinese lost in Anhwe Japanese win with 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Japanese: 1 artillery and 1 infantry Casualties for Chinese: 1 artillery and 3 infantry Non Combat Move - Japanese 1 tactical_bomber moved from Anhwe to 7 Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from Korea to 6 Sea Zone 2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 6 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from 21 Sea Zone to Kwangtung 1 fighter moved from Hunan to Kwangtung 1 carrier moved from 7 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Anhwe to Shantung 1 tactical_bomber moved from Anhwe to Shantung 1 tactical_bomber moved from Hunan to French Indo China 1 tactical_bomber moved from Hunan to Kwangtung 1 fighter moved from Hunan to 21 Sea Zone 1 tactical_bomber moved from Hunan to Kwangtung 1 tactical_bomber moved from Caroline Islands to Kwangtung 1 fighter moved from Caroline Islands to Kwangtung 1 transport moved from 5 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 35 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone 1 bomber moved from Eastern India to French Indo China 1 fighter moved from Shan State to 37 Sea Zone 1 tactical_bomber moved from 38 Sea Zone to French Indo China Place Units - Japanese 1 carrier placed in 7 Sea Zone 1 submarine placed in 7 Sea Zone 1 transport placed in 6 Sea Zone 1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in French Indo China 4 infantry placed in Japan 1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in Southern Manchuria 1 factory_minor placed in Malaya Turn Complete - Japanese Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 2 Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 59 Sea Zone. Rolls: 5,2 Japanese collect 53 PUs (2 lost to blockades); end with 53 PUs Objective Japanese 6 Home Islands: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 56 PUs Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 61 PUs Objective Japanese 7 Vital Forward Bases: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 66 PUs
Combat Hit Differential Summary :
Chinese regular : 0.67 Japanese regular : -1.17 UK_Pacific AA : -0.17 UK_Pacific regular : -0.33
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Units, Mechanics, etc.

Axis & Allies Europe 1940
• • • The Janus

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@SuperbattleshipYamato said in Units, Mechanics, etc.:

1 reason why I, at least, usually avoid 109 on turn 1 is that the fighters in both London and Scotland can scramble.

Fair enough, and I wasn’t even thinking of that to be honest.
What about 106, though?

Let me write this all out, so I can gather my thoughts…

Subs:
124. can hit 111 or 109
118. can hit 106 or 109 or 111
117. can hit 106 or 109
108. can hit 106 or 109 or 110 or 91
103. can hit 106 or 109 or 110 or 91

…and then you’ve got your battleship that can hit 110 or 111

Now, from that, the obvious tactic would seem to be:
103 and 108 to 91 117 and 118 to 106
…leaving you 1 sub + 1 battleship and whatever air power you choose, to take out 3 ships (DD, CRZ, BB) in SZ111
So that’s just me ballparking it without even hammering everything into a battle calculator; run 10,000 times, 2 sub vs. 1 crz, 1 trn has the defender winning 14%, whereas 2 sub vs. 1 DD, 1 trn has the defender winning 12% of the time.

The thing I think people don’t often do (in lieu of using a calculator) is just look at the number of hits you can afford to take vs. the number of dice the opponent is chucking. So in this SZ111 battle, the Brits can defend with 4 units (3 if they don’t scramble) – so it’s possible that they could hit you as many as 4 times, given 1 round of combat. If they don’t scramble, there is a 100% chance that your sub and battleship can absorb the hits from 1 round of combat, and your planes will be at 0% risk of getting hit. So, if you think they will scramble, then you need to include another sub in this attack, just to be 100% sure you’re able to retreat all of your planes after 1 round.

Including the scrambled fighter, if you calculate this battle as “retreat after 1 round” it’s like a 55%-45% (even if you send like 6 planes) but if you do it as “retreat when only air left” it’s like 5-to-1 (83%-17%); if you add another sub into the attack, it becomes 97%

So to add another sub to SZ111, we’d be pulling it out of the battle I had proposed (in 106) from SZ118
Since the 3 remaining subs can all hit SZ106 (Canada) and because I, as the British, tend to want to form up my navy in that SZ this seems like the way to go. (This is a 98% win)

This leaves the British wide open to just pile everything into “Gibastion” but it (hopefully) would disrupt the move I do, of building a carrier (or really, any navy) in Canada on UK1

Ultimately it’s a question of whether it’s better to run 2 battles that go in your favour >95% of the time, or to run 3 battles where 1/6 of the time, you lose more units than you wanted; if the losses only come in the form of your submarines, that might be worth the gamble. It’s when you start losing planes that it becomes not worth the risk. How that first round of combat goes in SZ111 determines a lot, including whether or not the scramble is used.

In East & West there’s a strategy for attacking Italy as the USSR on the first round, but it involves sending (at least) a bomber against a territory with an AA gun; so there’s always that 1/6 chance that the AA gun hits and the whole calculus is thrown out the window. I know that these are not the odds that @AndrewAAGamer would tell you to roll on, but sometimes the riskier option pays off more in the grand scheme than the safe option – sometimes the safe options still lead to inevitable failure (i.e. in an unbalanced game.) I also think it’s interesting that all of the battles I’ve calculated here fall into that roughly 1/6 failure chance, because as A&A gamers, that’s very easy for us to contextualize.