Trotsky Not Stalin

@ABWorsham4

Quite, quite an, um, giant topic. I don’t look at this area of history at all (post revolution Soviet struggles), and the views of these Soviet leaders are seemingly very complicated and hard to wrap my head around.

I’m no expert, but if everything Trotsky wanted could be carried out and had the expected results, I’m not sure much about the military side of the war would be different. The economy would’ve probably not been worse, so the Soviet military would probably been at least as good as it was in 1939.

Based on my exceedingly brief research, Trotsky probably would’ve opposed Nazi Germany. It’s possible he would’ve tried harder to gain victory in Spain, but I doubt a war would’ve been triggered then. The Axis weren’t exactly prepared, both countries were still separated, and if the purges didn’t occur the Soviets may even have been too intimidating at the time for the Axis to consider war.

Even if the Soviets teamed up with the Allies, it’s possible Germany would’ve still invaded Poland, depending on how much the Soviet military would be held in contempt in this alternative timeline’s 1939.

I can’t say much more or further than that without feeling that I’m lying.

On the bright side, if the Soviet democracy thing works out, the Allies can truly be called democracies fighting facism, rather than a dictatorship spoiling the whole nice, simple narrative.

Obviously the details of, well, everything, pre and postwar, would be different, but I don’t see much changing in the giant scheme of things. The Soviets win, the Nazis lose.

@ABWorsham4

I asked AI this question (and also found some answers on Quora).

Would you like me to paste those here as well.

@ABWorsham4 said in Trotsky Not Stalin:

How does the Soviet Union fair under Trotsky and not Stalin in the 1920s -1940s?

The communists commit mass suicide and the world is a better place.

@ABWorsham4

ChatGPT (let me know if you would like me to ask it to elaborate):

The scenario you’re suggesting, where Leon Trotsky becomes the leader of the Soviet Union instead of Joseph Stalin after Lenin’s death, would have significant implications for the geopolitical and economic landscape of the world, particularly during World War II. While it is impossible to predict all the intricate details, I can provide you with a plausible scenario and outline some key changes that could occur. Keep in mind that this is a speculative scenario and not based on historical evidence.

1. Trotsky’s Rise to Power:
   In this scenario, Trotsky manages to consolidate his power within the Soviet Union by outmaneuvering Stalin and his allies. He gains the support of key figures within the Communist Party, including influential military leaders. Trotsky’s charisma, strategic thinking, and revolutionary zeal enable him to rally the support of the population and the military.

2. Domestic Policies:
   Under Trotsky’s leadership, the Soviet Union would likely experience a more ideologically driven and internationalist approach. Trotsky was a proponent of permanent revolution and believed in exporting communism to other countries. This could lead to a more aggressive foreign policy aimed at spreading revolution and supporting communist movements worldwide.

Internally, Trotsky would likely implement policies focused on rapid industrialization and collectivization. However, he might adopt a less repressive approach compared to Stalin, allowing for more political dissent and intellectual freedom. The cultural and artistic scene could experience a flourishing period with less state control.

3. Geopolitical Impact:
   The geopolitical landscape would see significant changes with Trotsky at the helm of the Soviet Union. Trotsky’s belief in permanent revolution might lead to increased support for communist movements worldwide, particularly in Europe, Asia, and Latin America. This support could result in more successful communist uprisings, potentially altering the balance of power in certain regions.

4. European Theater in World War II:
   The outbreak of World War II would be influenced by Trotsky’s leadership. It is likely that Trotsky would pursue a more aggressive stance against Nazi Germany, seeking to export revolution and undermine fascist regimes. The Soviet Union might proactively support communist and anti-fascist movements in neighboring countries, potentially leading to earlier and stronger resistance against the Axis powers.

The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, signed between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany in 1939, would not occur in this scenario. Instead, the Soviet Union may actively support Poland, potentially preventing the rapid German invasion and altering the course of the war.

5. Eastern Front and Barbarossa:
   With Trotsky’s proactive approach, the Soviet Union would likely have better military preparedness and cooperation with its Western allies. This could result in more efficient defense against the German invasion during Operation Barbarossa. The Soviet military might adopt different strategies, possibly avoiding the initial catastrophic losses experienced under Stalin. The earlier support for anti-fascist movements in Eastern Europe could also provide valuable intelligence and resistance networks to undermine German occupation.

6. Allies and Post-War Settlement:
   Trotsky’s internationalist approach would shape the Soviet Union’s relations with the Western Allies. While ideological differences would remain, Trotsky might seek closer cooperation with the United States and the United Kingdom against Nazi Germany. This cooperation could lead to more efficient coordination, potentially shortening the duration of the war.

In the post-war settlement, Trotsky’s influence might result in a more assertive Soviet Union, aiming to spread communism and establish pro-Soviet governments in war-torn Europe. The Cold War dynamics would be significantly altered, potentially leading to different alliances and conflicts throughout the second half of the 20th century.

It’s important to note that this scenario is purely speculative and based on assumptions about Trotsky’s leadership style and beliefs. The actual outcome of Trotsky’s leadership and the resulting changes in the world would depend on numerous unpredictable variables and factors.

@ABWorsham4

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