Are you going to concede that your probability calcs were wrong or not?
Unknown Soldier
@Unknown Soldier
Posts made by Unknown Soldier

RE: Cmdr Jennifer Hijacks “Enhanced” – How do you really feel about it.

RE: AA50 NOs
A&A is just like chess. The one who study openings best, wins.
I disagree on both accounts.
A&A is obviously quite different in many respects. A big one is that new pieces are constantly coming on the board in addition to pieces leaving the board. If you have more material coming on board than the opponent, it doesn’t really matter if your opening is suboptimal.
As for chess, openings are important but very overrated. A better midgame/endgame player will beat a better opener virtually every time.

RE: Movies to watch while playing AA
I second Band of Brothers. What a great miniseries. If you haven’t seen it, watch it now.

RE: Cmdr Jennifer Hijacks “Enhanced” – How do you really feel about it.
@Cmdr:
They way you are doing it you get:
Germany has a 1/36 chance of getting Super Submarines in OOB Rules
+
Italy has a 1/36 chance of getting Super Submarines in OOB Rules
+
Japan has a 1/36 chance of getting Super Submarines in OOB RulesTherefore:
The Axis have a 3/36 (or 1 in 12) chance of getting Super Submarines in OOB Rules
Don’t think that’s valid.
Well, this is incorrect and not what I was saying anyway.
Technically, you can’t add those probabilities to get 1/12 because they are not mutually exclusive events (although 1/12 is a decent approximation in this case). Germany and Japan could both gets super subs, for example. The correct way to calculate the odds of one or more Axis nations acquiring super subs, if they each roll exactly one die and have no technologies, is to find the odds that none of them get the tech and subtract that from 1:
1  (35/36)^3 = 8.1%
But we’re not interested in the odds of at least one Axis nation getting super subs. We’re interested in the odds of Japan getting super subs right? Since they are one of the nations you say can “break” the tech.
The odds of any particular nation getting super subs is 1/36. Since one nation acquiring a tech (or failing to acquire one) doesn’t affect the probability of other nations acquiring a tech, they are independent events. Thus, whether Germany or Italy get super subs in no way affects the probability of Japan getting super subs.
Japan can always buy a tech token on their turn. If they do so, they get a 1/6 chance of tech. If they get a tech, they get a 1/6 shot at super subs. That’s 1/36 to get super subs; there are no other random events to account for here.
Don’t make it more complicated than it needs to be: you roll 1 die to get a 6, then 1 die to get a 1… if you do, boom, super subs. 1/36 chance, end of story.
I can’t believe I’m still explaining this.

RE: Cmdr Jennifer Hijacks “Enhanced” – How do you really feel about it.
Jen, true or false:
Japan has a 1/36 chance of getting super subs.

RE: Cmdr Jennifer Hijacks “Enhanced” – How do you really feel about it.
@Cmdr:
But you cannot specify what nation will get a certain technology out of the box.
Yes, you can. It’s specified by by whoever’s turn it is.
@Cmdr:
Just like you can’t say “well, my armor missed last round, so it’s going to hit this round” you also can’t say “I’ll only get Super Submarines if Japan rolls a 6, I’ll get one of the other 5 if Germany or Italy roll a 6.” It’s an invalid method of calculating probability.
What does this have to do with anything in my post? The ironic thing is, I was explaining this concept to you a few weeks ago. :lol:
@Cmdr:
You two seem to want to discount the odds that you get super submarines with one of the other nations and not with Japan.
No, I never said anything of the sort in post at all.

RE: Cmdr Jennifer Hijacks “Enhanced” – How do you really feel about it.
“HAVING THE CORRECT NATION” IS NOT A PROBABILITY EVENT

RE: Cmdr Jennifer Hijacks “Enhanced” – How do you really feel about it.
@Cmdr:
Yes, only the Super Submarines tech came up “broken” when shifting to enhanced style technology rules.
How is it that heavy bombers isn’t broken then?
HBs provide an attack punch of 8 for 14 IPCs (.571 punch/IPC), while SSs have an attack punch of 3 for 6 IPCs (.500 punch/IPC). Then consider that bombers have a range of 6, compared to 2 for a sub. Oh, and then there’s the fact that bombers can attack land, sea and air targets while a sub can attack sea targets only. And heavy bombers have better economic attacks.
The sub abilities don’t even compare to the bomber’s, and they can be negated by a DD anyway.
So HBs have better attack punch/IPC, better abilities, and are much more versatile unit. So I don’t see how super subs > heavy bombers.

RE: Cmdr Jennifer Hijacks “Enhanced” – How do you really feel about it.
But you already know who needs them and will roll for the tech duing that nations turn. So we are back to 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36.
Exactly.

RE: Cmdr Jennifer Hijacks “Enhanced” – How do you really feel about it.
Jen, this is not meant as an insult, but your understanding of probability is lacking (as is most people’s). So instead of always insisting that you’re right in an area where you lack expertise, perhaps you would do better to see where you went wrong, because I really don’t want to spend 10 posts discussing this.
@Cmdr:
No, my calculations are correct, you are misunderstanding how I derived them.
Unfortunately, they are not correct. I’m not misunderstanding how your arrived at 1/108, I see what you’re trying to do. The problem is, what you’re doing is simply invalid, from a probability standpoint.
The problem lies here:
@Cmdr:
You have a 1 in 3 chance of playing the correct nation that needs the technology at the time you roll a 6 on the die.
No, you don’t.
You don’t roll for tech and then determine who gets it randomly. That’s not how the game works. There is a 100% chance someone will be playing Japan or United States and will have the opportunity to roll for tech. Each nation has a 1/36 chance of getting super subs. It therefore follows that Japan and the US each have a 1/36 chance to get super subs. Not 1/108.
Your method would be correct if instead the game worked like this:
(1) The Allies roll for tech together (1/6 to get a tech)
(2) If successful, the Allies roll on chart 2 (1/6 to get ss)
(3) If successful, the Allies roll a die to determine who gets the tech: 12 = USSR, 34 = UK, 56 = USA (1/3 chance for US)Odds of US getting super subs = (1/6)(1/6)(1/3) = 1/108
But, the game actually works like this:
(1) Determine who’s turn it is (100% chance the US gets a turn)
(2) On the US turn, roll for tech (1/6 to get a tech)
(3) If successful, the US rolls on chart 2 (1/6 to get ss)Odds of US getting super subs = (1)(1/6)(1/6) = 1/36
See the difference?