- Leningrad has a very small force with no planes and no AAA.
- Bulk of USSR units are standing in Karelia
What Russia player would do this in the face of Germany having just bought a ton of transports? Any experienced Russia player is stacking Belarus in this scenario, not Karelia.
If Germany buys those transports it has to hit London or they’re a wasted purchase. The only thing that gives Germany superiority on land vs. Russia is dedicating that G2 buy to land units. That’s why Russia always turns into a monster in a Sealion scenario - the lack of a ground purchase plus another 20+ German land units hitting London, with almost all lost in the process, gives Russia land superiority. Germany needs the UK captial capture income just to defend itself at that point.
Game out the scenario and count up how many land units Germany has at the end of G2 and how many Russia has on the western front. Germany needs UK to be dead at that point, it needs the capital capture income, or it’s immediately fighting a losing battle on home turf.