where in denmark you guys from? if its an open danish championship you might get a visitor or two from norway ;)
Posts made by Pin
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RE: Danish threat
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RE: A beginners guide to statistics in AA50.
Butcher: just pressed on time atm, but i will clean it up and either post it in first post or make a new one in time :)
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RE: A beginners guide to statistics in AA50.
up for a pbf game anytime with dices.
And the maths still stands, you just dont get the concept behind probability, and thats what this thread is about, not low luck, wich is designed to partially remove probability. Example would be 2arms attacking a territory, with LL youre 100% sure to take it vs 1inf. With dices youre not 100% anymore, and you dont have to play many games to actually experience that.
In a turn in AA you have a goal you want to achive, by adding the probabilities of the different battles you are doing you get the odds for the goal to be achieved. If the goal is to get the 3rd NO with a nation, you multiply the different attacks related to that and you get the odds you will have the 3rd NO after the turn. All the others reading this thread is grasping this concept, so it might be about time you get ure head out of the sand and read it again til you actually understand the concept of probability.
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RE: A beginners guide to statistics in AA50.
first of all this guide to statistics was NOT written for low luck, only reason i used youre attacks in it (and reason i didnt refere to youre strat) was that i couldnt be arsed to come up with a G1, calculate all the odds for it under dices to succeed and then use those numbers.
All the maths in this thread is correct, thats simply HOW maths works, no way getting around that fact. Its like claiming the world is round etc.
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It consider all battles as equally important when they are not.
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It does not consider possibilities like straffing or special stuff
Maths are just a tool to show you how to calculate the odds of whatever problem you are pondering about the odds for. IF you want to know what the odds on a combat round is combined you now have the tools for that. You also have the tools neccesary to calculate youre “main” attack, and youre “strafe” or high variance attacks individually.
Multiplying it all together just give you an indication of how how many times ALL attacks that YOU DECIDE to add into the equation will succeed. So for youre strategy you will only succeed with all the attacks in 45 of 100 German turn 1s. Other solid openings have a success rate off 90%. Again, this all demand that you play the game oob with regular dices.
- It does not take in account the fact you CAN choose the order in which you do your battles.
It is irrelevant to calculate odds AFTER the battle have occured. As you cant change the combat moves after the first dice have been thrown. Maths here is for learning the people who dont know how to use it to calculate theyre odds BEFORE they attack. Then they can split it up as listed earlier in this thread so they can see what theyre odds are AFTER 1st battle succeed, so they have a backup plan IF that first battle fails.
- It’s based on triple A simulator.
Its the best estimate for how dices will roll, as it would be much to time consuming to manually calculate every battles, would take hours for every battle bigger then 1unit vs 1unit.
- It does not consider the casulaties taken by the ennemy
It assume you take the worst deffensive units first as casualties and the worst attacking units as casualties, so it actually gives you an worst case scenario unless youre up against a retard that sack his best deffensive units in a battle thats not huge in his favor.
- It does not take in account the fact you CAN choose the order in which you do your battles. Calling off an attack after a failure somewhere else is possible. You can retreat when there is no point…
You have to do 1 battleround as long as the combat move have been declared. Its beside the point though, as you then will have failed the overall strategy as lined out above and havent reached the goals.
Its REACHING those goals you use Maths for. You use it to determin the odds reaching the goals YOU set youreself, if you feel a battle is of minor importance you skip the battle in the calculation as that would be a battle thats not crucial for the overall strategy to be successfull. For instance you could have a lone sub vs 3loaded cvs at sea, that would be a +ev attack, but it still wont have good odds, so i would not add it in my calculations for odds for that combat round.
Still, let’s take a look at WHY it is 100% win sending the bomber. Your Bomber, fighter and one sub fight against a BB. If we go by theses ‘‘statistics’’, the battle is at 93-97% when in fact it’s 100% win Low luck. There is NO way around it.
Let’s do the “maths”: 4+3 = 7. That’s 1 automatic hit, and 1/6 for a possible second hit. PLUS 2/6 for the sub in yet another possible hit. Let’s say everything miss and the damaged BB hit back. The sub goes, another automatic hit goes in, the BB hit back again before sinking, the fighter goes. Worst case scenario, still 100% win.
In a oob setup with dices this is just utterly blatenly false, and just completely stupid. Again read the topic, this discussion is about using DICES
Thats the reason why playing LL and dices this game becomes two different games. Those attacks that might have 100% in low luck becomes lower with dices. So useing the odds from low luck to determin a winning strategy in a dice enviroment is just completely stupid, you have to use the odds the dices actually have to find it.
For a quick example go check out my tourney game in the tech tourney vs DemolitionMan. German 1 i failed BSt eventhough i had 100% in LL and 92% in dices. Thats what this guide is all about, understanding the differences between LL and dices AND learn how to calculate the true odds for an attack or a group of attacks in dice enviroment.
Now this thread have been derailed enough, start a new thread and i will answer you there if you still want to discuss things on the side of this topic.
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RE: A beginners guide to statistics in AA50.
no it doesnt, if you still have a goal of having all 6 to succeed, then the odds is still 50.1%, as you need to multiply 70% and 71% to make sure both T1 and T2 succeeds.
But if you succeeded with the 3first in turn 1, then you have 71% chance of getting all 6 done by attacking the last 3 in T2.
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RE: A beginners guide to statistics in AA50.
I will add that to the article if you allow Butcher, also will add that thats the probablilty for exactly 1 hit with two dices, and not for 1 or 2 hits. (for the not math educated that might be a bit blurry, not sure though)
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RE: A beginners guide to statistics in AA50.
Maybe it was bad explained. I was not talking about getting ONE hit one two dices, was talking about getting TWO hit on two dices.
Thats 16% for 1 hit on 1 dice (assuming you need a 1)
So for 2hits out of two, its 2,77%.The example is applicable to cases where you need to win 2 out of 2 battles to be successfull.
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RE: AA50-41 Tech Tourney sign-up (sign-ups CLOSED)
Im just typing that im going on vacation sunday 12th of june until monday 20th of june. I will however play this tourney, i can play 247 so its up to who i draw for a game how fast the game will progress, so fingers crossed i draw someone able to play a lot after the 20th, or 10th -12th.
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RE: Simple question: is the game balanced?
my bad was only referring to AA50 -41 with NOs, only version i played and analyzed a lot.
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RE: Leningrad assault ( Karelia G1 )
as i said, low luck is a whole different game. And as i wrote, all my numbers are for dices. Most players dont play low luck, most players play dices, but maybe a majority on trippleA plays low luck!
My numbers are correct for dices, and point beeing, basing youre strat around a strat with under 50% chance of success is not a good option in my opinion. There is good opening moves for Germany with a combined luck of 85-90% chance that is solid and consistent over a large sample size.
the thing is you cant base youre tactics in AA50 around low luck if you are gonna play dices, that will totally skew youre tactics, as battles with almost OR 100% chance of success in low luck might be a lot lower in dices.
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RE: Leningrad assault ( Karelia G1 )
well the odds of those 2 battles to succeed in the same game turn is: 0.7982 x 0.84 = 67%. And thats not dubious, thats how statistics are calced. If you want BOTH those attacks to survive in the same turn, thats 67% that will happen.
I assume you also need baltic states as a crucial battle, as without it suceeding you wont be able to blitz 2 arms to deffend Karelia in ncm. The odds is then 0.7982 x 0.84 x 0.963 = 64.6%
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A beginners guide to statistics in AA50.
Ive read so many horrible ways people judge theyre odds in this game lately so i will make a short guide to it so people hopefully can understand how it works.
First let us do a quick example.
If you throw a dice (1d6) you will get a number from 1-6, each of those have the odds 1/6 to appear or 16.67% chance.
Now what is the odds of getting a 1 in 2 throws in a row (Rolling 2d1:
(1, 1) )?
I have the feeling a lot in here would say 16.67%, this is ofcourse wrong.Reason is that first you throw one time, odds for it hitting a 1 is then 16.67%, but if you want it in the second throw aswell you have to make the assumption you also got it in the first. The way to calculate the odds for two throws in a row hitting a 1 would then be to multiply the odds from throw one, and throw two: 16.67% x 16.67% = (1/6) X (1/6) = 1/36 = 2.77%
Now over to AA50 odds:
A bit general odds:
Calculating odds of a battle with more units is highly complex as killed units are removed in every round someone score a hit. This makes it almost impossible to make a code that gives the exact odds for an attack. To counter this battlecalc constructors have used simulations of the actual combat you type in and give you an estimate for the odds. As you can see if you try the same battle in tripleA more times you will see a different result every time if the battle is semi complex like Karelia turn 1 attack of 3inf 1art 3fgt vs 5inf 1art. Also these battlecalcs only show the odds of winning the battle with 1 attacking unit surviving, it also says whats the most likely result of attacking units surviving but this is NOT what the odds are refering too. The odds stated refers to one unit surviving. The odds of more units surving will allways be lower then the odds of 1 unit survivng.
To calc the odds for 1 unit survivng the program runs the battle maybe 100 times. Then it adds up all the battles with 1, 2, 3…etc units survivng and dividing it by 100. And you then get an estimate for the odds that youre attack will survive.
Now over to more battles succeeding at once:
Sometimes in AA50 you are in the need off more then one attack succeeding at the same time, like if you hit the eastern front with Germany you want to take 3 territories for the bonus. So what you are interested in is the odds for ALL three attacks suceeding at the same time.
To calculate this you first need to determin the odds for each of the attacks individually, then as in the dice example over you need to multiply the odds for each off the three attacks to determin the attacks combined will succeed.
Now look on a German opening Turn 1.
Assault on Leningrad
- Take Karelia ( 3 infantry, 1 artillery, 3 fighters , cruiser/transport
Eastern front assault: - Take and Hold Baltic States ( 2 inf, 3 tanks )
- Take and Hold East Poland ( 1tank, 2 inf, 1 art )
- Take Ukraine ( 3inf, 1 art)
Navy assault - Sink UK battleship + transport ( 2 sub, 1 fighter )
Egypt assault - Attack Egypt with 1bmb, 2inf 1art 2arm
Odds for the attacks individual is then:
Assault on Leningrad 79.2% for wininng with at least 1unit surviving.
Assault on Baltic States 96.3% for at least 1 surving land unit a bit lower if you want odds for more to survive.
Assault on Eastern Poland 98.1% for at least 1 surving land unit a bit lower if you want odds for more to survive.
Assault on UKraine 94.4% for at least 1 surving land unit a bit lower if you want odds for more to survive.
Assault z2 84% for at least 1 surviving unit, dont care about the subs here so doesnt matter much
Assault on Egypt 75.3% for at least 1 surving land unit a bit lower if you want odds for more to survive.
Combined odds
Now to the interesting part, each of these attacks have no lower then 79.2%. Lets see what happens if we set as a demand that all 6 attacks have to suceed for us to have a successfull turn.Odds for all these 6 attacks will succeed in same game turn 1: 0.772 x 0.963 x 0.981 x 0.944 x 0.84 x 0.753 = 0.435 = 43.5%
As we can see we will only have a chance off 43.5% of these 6 attacks to succeed at the same time. If you are looking for a solid gameplan you would like to get the combined odds of MUST accomplish goals maybe up to 90-95%. Though in some situations where the risk / reward ratio is great you might be willing to do an 20% individual odds attack, just becouse it wont hurt you much if you fail, but benefit you great if you succeed. In those cases you should NOT add that single attack into the multiplum you check to find if the must succeed attacks have high enough odds of succeeding for you to be willing to do it.
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Plz give me feedback on this guide, i would like to improve it so people wont start more threads based upon flawed statistics as im a geek who gets provoked by people using maths the wrong way to deffend theyre tactics or opinions. I might also add a paragraph about why this makes low luck a whole different game then dices in AA50 in the future, but that will have to wait.
Also english is not my native language so spelling errors do occur, and i would love if someone would help me correct it :)
- Take Karelia ( 3 infantry, 1 artillery, 3 fighters , cruiser/transport
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RE: Beginner looking for feedback on his G1
Yes INDIVIDUAL!!!
learn statistics plz, even though the battles have 80% INDIVIDUAL, that does NOT mean it have 80% chance of a success in the same game, that odds are around 45% if you add in the 3 attacks on the eastern front for the same game.
Check youre own thread Corbeau Blanc, i have done the maths for you there for youre option A. If you dont trust it read up on statistic analyzis.
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RE: Leningrad assault ( Karelia G1 )
All odds taken from trippleA simulations, if you do battlecalc and press calc more times you will see different results becouse this is just simulations, way to complicated to calculate it accurate for a small program like trippleA.
So all the odds are just approximations.Option A odds:
Assault on Leningrad 79.2% for wininng with at least 1unit surviving.77.2% if 1 land unit have to survive. Odds for 3 units survivng is lower around 55%, wont do the math now.
Assault on Baltic States 96.3% for at least 1 surving land unit a bit lower if you want odds for more to survive.
Assault on Eastern Poland 98.1% for at least 1 surving land unit a bit lower if you want odds for more to survive.
Assault on UKraine 94.4% for at least 1 surving land unit a bit lower if you want odds for more to survive.
Assault z2 84% for at least 1 surviving unit, dont care about the subs here so doesnt matter much
Assault on Egypt 75.3% for at least 1 surving land unit a bit lower if you want odds for more to survive.Odds for all these 6 attacks will succeed in same game turn 1: 0.772 x 0.963 x 0.981 x 0.944 x 0.84 x 0.753 = 0.435 = 43.5%
So basically youre prefered tactic have around 44% chance of winning, and then i havent used odds for more then 1 - ONE - 1 unit survivng each battle.
As you can see youreself this should never be a viable option for someone looking for a consistent strategy for winning AA50 over many games, but will indeed be a game for the dices to determin. This is why low luck is not compareable to dices in AA50 as it might have been in revised and other games. This game is 110% balanced around the use of dices and dices only.
Option B i will leave for you to do the maths, but the odds here are worse as you dont have as much firepower in the crucial fights.
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RE: Beginner looking for feedback on his G1
Corbeau Blanc, ofc thats profitable IF all those things happens. BUT that will only happen around 50% of the times. So you will basically be basing youre strategy on everything succeeding when you only have 50% chance of that happening. Meaning you have a small profit 50% of the time, and a huge loss 50% of the time.
Thats not a winning strategy in the long run in my book at least….
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RE: Simple question: is the game balanced?
thing is you will never win a game vs a decent opponent with a India IC in AA40 unless there was wacky dices somewhere. Its just not possible in this game. Ofc there is several instances where dices will make it profitable and maybe optimal to place an IC there, but thats not the issue if Germany not attack Egypt T1(they still have to shuffle units to africa though). A horrible failed Egypt T1 attack by germany might be a situation where it will be profitable, or even more so if japanese fails z35 turn1.
Thats whats so dynamic about this game, there is no standard response that will allways work for the allies, they have to adopt to where the dices was whacky turn one by the axis attacks, or respond to a conservative T1 by the axis.
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RE: Simple question: is the game balanced?
/Pin
Not attacking EGY G1 is an Indian IC waiting to happen. UK gets at least 1 arm+1fig to India, and if the Russians send 4 inf and UK transfers 2 figs from Europe you could end up with as much as 7 inf, 1 art, 4 arm, 3 figs in India turn 3… Most assumptions on an Indian IC not being viable are based on a German attack on Egypt and I certainly think it looks different otherwise.
"Edit, you wont get the armor to India, it will only get to Persia round 1, so for a Round 2 attack by japan setup correctly you will have:
4inf (2from sum 2from brn), 2inf 1art (what remains from Burma attack, if you loose 1inf in the attack thats 1inf 1art), 3fgters from FIC, 2fgters from z37 (those 2 attacked dd in z35 so 1 might be dead)
this leaves us with an attakcking force on India with at least: 5inf 1art 4fgters, with good possiblitiy for another inf and fgter.
This is up against 7inf 1art 1fgter unless Russia reinforce MORE then 4inf.
Again, the Burma attack i will only do if Russia moves those infs and “fake” and IC build. This cost me the attack on Fuk and Kwa, but makes Hupeh more likely to succeed. Alternativly i will still do Kwa and just attack burma with 1inf 1art and hope thats enough."
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If i see 4 russian inf move towards india T1, i setup a IC in FIC turn 1, and also make my moves so i have enough firepower to take India turn 2 if needed, turn 3 latest, without anyway for UK or russia to prevent it unless russia sends armors there turn 2 aswell. If they do that GG, Germany will win the war for the axis. The UK IC means less money spent to land units in Europe, and even though japan doesnt take it, it only means UK will keep building units every turn in India to make sure he holds it, will never be able to utilize those troops.
Unless you go a risky opening turn 1 with both Ger and Jap and fails an UK IC anywhere (might be a slight exception with Saf) is a total failure and will most likely cost the allies the game if they use resources to keep it. As this means not enough pressure on Germany from the west, and germany can use all its force to crush Russia (russia can never withstand Germany all alone, she needs at least a decent threath on the other front to make her hold her ground)
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RE: Simple question: is the game balanced?
Lynxes: my german opening now is never Egypt turn 1. Reason beeing on turn im 110% sure to take it HARD with enough forces to make sure i get all the african IPCs at least for a few turns. What i do is taking Ukraine hard with 4armors, and shuffle units to Lib turn 1. Italy either shore bombard Egypt to soften it if he stacks it hard (z35 dd survived and he moved 2 indian units there) or take Egypt if he stacked Persia / TrJ. Then on turn 2 i fetch 2 more units from Ukraine to Egypt and now i have a solid african corps that can hold africa for a much longer time suplemented with the Italian reinforcements.
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RE: Simple question: is the game balanced?
migth happen i did wrong on the calculator, but read my last post again bogoo, thats 47% that you win all battles with 1 - ONE - 1 unit minimum. Thats NOT a good place to be. What you want is to decide how many units you need to be left with after turn 1, then calc the odds for that to happen and see if thats a situation you want to be in. For example you want all youre 6 armors on the eastern front alive. You want at least 3fgters and bomber alive, and you preferably want to take Egypt with at least 1 armor. Along with that you want enough inf on the eastern front to make sure you can trade territories for youre 2nd NO wihtout have to use armors to trade those territorries. Again go and check the league and tournament G1 turns and you will see almost if not everyone do a more conservative G1 as on a consistent basis you will not have enough units left after G1 if you do that opening.
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RE: Simple question: is the game balanced?
Actually the odds are better than 58, that is without the bomber at egypt.
Kar - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 3 fig, 1 cruiser bombard vs R: 5 inf, 1 art, 1 AA gun = 78% odds typically 3 units left
Egypt - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm vs B: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 fig = 90% odds typically 3 units left
SZ 2 - G: 2 sub, 1 fig vs B: 1 BB = 83% odds typically 1 unit left
Baltic - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 3 inf = 95% typically 3 units left
Poland - G: 2 inf, 4 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 5 units left
Ukraine - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 3 units leftI wasnt saying it was the individual odds for Egypt, i was talking about ALL 3 succeeding in the same game. Basic odds maths state that you have to multiply the odds for each of the individual battles as decimals to get the odds for a all out success.
For youre 6 attacks G1 the odds for all beeing successfull would be:
0.78 x 0.90 x 0.83 x 0.95 x 0.98 x 0.98 = 0.53 = 53% chance of success. Remember these numbers just state its a 53% chance you will win ALL 6 battles with at least 1 remaining unit after the battle. But thats a crappy result if you only have 1 unit left in each of them, so if you want the typical result as you type after in each battle the odds would probably be around 10% even though i havent calced those. I know a lot dont have the statistical background, but these considerations are very much important to take into consideration to make a good strategy in a dice game like AA50. Off the board the Axis looks so very powerfull before turn 1, but doing around 20 attacks combined for all the axis turn 1 will make one or more attacks fail and then again lead to an opening for the Allies to exploit.Offcourse an all out offensive every game will lead to a round where everything is successfull and you will almost decide the game in turn 1. But this is not a versatile approach that will make you win games on a consistent basis. I would try to come up with an opening where you with a high chance will stand so strong that whatever the dices throw at you, you will still be in position to win the game.