I2: Minor Factory in Greece
I3: Airbase in Greece, 2 Transports in S100
I4: More Troops
Italy Turn 1
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Greece with 1 Bomber, 1 Tank, 2 Infantry
Yugoslavia with 2 Artillery, 2 Infantry
Gibraltar with 1 Tank, 1 Infantry
Tunisia with 1 Mech, 1 Artillery, 1 Infantry
Alexandria with 1 Tank, 1 Artillery, 3 Infantry
Anglo-Egyptian Sudan with 2 Infantry, 1 Artillery
Kenya with 1 Infantry
S93 with 2 Fighters, 1 Destroyer, 1 Submarine
S92 with 1 Cruiser, 1 Transport (1 Tank, 1 Infantry
Although I have only just registered, your post sparked my interest since I love tinkering with strategies in the Med and the Middle East ever since starting to play this game. This certainly is an unorthodox idea, even for me!
I do have a couple of questions though. Mainly because you assume both a very passive British player and, it seems, some very lucky dice rolls on your part.
On your first move, you try to take Greece with your Strat Bomber and the troops from Albania. That is a battle of two 1’s, a 3 and a 4 against four 2’s. Not very much in your favour… yet detrimental to your entire plan should it fail. Now you mention you do not like calculating battles, but if I put this one through the calculator anyway, you only have a 65% win. What’s more, the average unit left is close to 1, meaning you will have to sacrifice your Strat Bomber most of the time in order to claim Greece. That does not make for a very good Italian first turn I would say.
Furthermore, you plan to take Algeria, which will by then have 2 French Inf, with your leftover(!) troops from Tunisia: 1 Mech, 1 Inf, 1 Art. Not only is that fight only marginally in your advantage again, this is assuming you lost nothing before. If you did, its at best an equal fight, at worst a French overweight.
There are more examples of this, but you get the general idea now.
Besides this tendency to overestimate your own rolls and underestimate any possible counter moves, you also make some straight out errors. As pointed out by others here, there is likely a left-over British fleet in S97. I assume the Luftwaffe takes this out for you? This does however mean like they pointed out, that you gain less income and cannot possibly build a transport in S97 on I1 right - unless I am mistaken and missed some rule?
Last, I am puzzled as to what Germany does exactly. You mention building a transport on G2. Then how does Germany do an attack on G3 with 4 infantry?