@akreider2 said in Statistical Model for Predicting the Winner:
A classic example is that 538 model had Trump with a 20% of winning the US presidential election. Now I really don’t want to get into any political discussion, but it was completely possible that even though the 538 model favored Clinton, that Trump could still easily win. Any Axis and Allies player will be able to tell you how often unlikely events happen (so far my most unlikely dice roll was 1 in 100,000).
Well Truth be known is Trump had 1.2 million votes more than clinton when he won the election. In California and New York where the voting booths closed late, another ~6 million votes came in democrat for states that everybody knew would go for clinton. So your example of “bad dice” really wasn’t that at all. It was poor polling and media promoting clinton and having their minds convinced of an easy clinton victory.
My background: I’ve always been fascinated by statistics. At age 5 I won a contest estimating the number of smarties (M&Ms but it was in the UK) in a jar. I was reading the World Almanac at age 11. I wanted to be an economist at age 12. I ended up with a MA in Sociology. I’m a part-time professional gambler since 2016 on PredictIt (and have consistently made money for the past 5 years). Though I’m only familiar with linear and logistic regression. There might be better techniques to use (and if so I’d be happy to hear about them).
My hypothesis is that among good players, positioning leads to IPC gains and can be modeled. I haven’t tested this hypothesis in Global 1940.
It is necessary that UK/USA need to buy naval and air to shuck to Europe. The ratios of land/sea/air units are different and if Germany takes Moscow, but to take a VC you need land units and once the Axis take karelia, they need 2 more and these are attainable by land (Moscow and India and or possibly Hawaii)
Based on force projection the Axis are better poised to do this because they start so many land units. In a way totals IPC totals might predict some direction of victory, but like in Poker you can be on the nub with a “chip and a chair” and still beat your opponent with a number of all in’s your chip stack has little to do with win %, except in a casual way.