HI. I was not able to download the image you linked here as I don’t have an application to open it?
My apologies as it does bring me to triple A but I have never learned how to use the interface there to figure out how I might be able to open your link there. A simple screen shot would be more user friendly I think for people to see what you are looking at.
Anyhow this is Japan turn one and I think you covered the main things to be mindful of such as the UK bomber being in Kazakh and the 5 infantry in range of Buryatia with 2 Russian fighters in range of Buryatia as well. I am assuming these are in Archangel? Although they could be in other locations in range than that, this would be a more typical location for them as they were likely used on attacks round one.
I do have one question is what did UK build round one?
If Japan built a bomber in India you do need to be careful about UK air strike on sea zone 60 or 82 where Japan will be placing bought transports. The set up you describe does make me think you need to be wary of that.
One other thing I wonder about is if UK attacked sea zone 61? If so was this successful? Does Japan have 2 transports at the start of its turn or one? I am guessing that UK did attack sea zone 61 because your option 3 talks about building 3 transports and 3 infantry round one. If Japan had 2 transports already then it would only need to build 2 to max out production from Tokyo and be able to transport all 8 units built there each turn.
Are there any UK transports or ships in range for Japan to attack? If so I like to do that as long as it does not leave Japans navy out of position.
With that out of the way I will say that I dont like attacking Pearl Harbor round one as Japan. There are risks involved with that as you described and it also causes some of Japans units to be out of position for round 2.
You mention that Japan does not have many juicy targets for round one besides PH. Well I hear you on that but Japan can make many attacks on the mainland that can be very effective by using all its air support on those round one which limits hit back potential by shortening those battles.
What I like to do round one with Japan is buy 3 transports 1 infantry 1 tank.
Send 3 infantry from Manchuria to Buryatia. Yes Russia can attack these back if it uses its 2 fighters with very good odds to capture it. https://aa1942calc.com/#/XSqIoFf021FzY1RayZwYJg
However if it does so then its fighters must land in Yakut and will be out of position to defend its borders from Germany round 2 if it does. You also could position Japanese aircraft to be in range of Yakut from Manchuria and look to trade Japanese air for the Russian fighters which are very precious. That said its not an ideal position for Japans aircraft at the end of round one as I would prefer them to be somewhere else. That is a decision you will need to weigh if you think Russia is going to do this attack or not. A lot of that depends on your position with Germany. Can Russia really afford to not have its fighters available for trades in Europe and for defense of key territory like West Russia? Under most circumstances I would say no they cannot. Again it would e helpful to actually see the map here. If Germany has no strong forward position vs Russia then maybe they can afford to do this. I will say Russia doing this is unusual.
Japan attacks Anhwei with 4 ground units and 1 fighter 1 bomber. Attacks Yunnan with 4 ground units and 1 fighter using its transport. Leave the tank in Tokyo. Use Battleship from sea zone 37 to bombard.
Japan attacks Burma with 1 infantry from Thaland. Sending fighters from carrier in sea zone 37 if UK left an infantry there.
Position sub to be in range of sea zone 45 in case US fleet from Pearl tries to move in there. Position the rest of your fleet to be in range of sea zone 45 to dead zone it. Much of this position depends on if UK has a bomber in India or not.
If not then leaving 1 battleship 1 destroyer in sea zone 60 should be enough to protect your 3 transport build in sea zone 60. The UK fighter in Szechwan cannot reach there even if Russia takes Buryatia. US could send 2 fighters at this but its only 13% chance of success. The Battleship will heal itself and then one bomber vs battleship is 6% chance of success. If a 2nd UK bomber can reach that is very different though!! So this matters a lot.
If UK does have a bomber in India then you want to bring the carrier from sea zone 50 to sea zone 60 and land 2 fighters on it. Note the fighters in sea zone 60 can still reach sea zone 45 to help dead zone US fleet if it moves there.
The battleship and carrier with 2 fighters in sea zone 61 to protect the one transport that landed units to Yunnan. You can have the cruiser here as well if you want extra defense.
If you dont need the carrier in sea zone 60 or the cruiser in sea zone 61 then I prefer having the carrier and cruiser in sea zone 48. Its just more versatile. But again the UK bomber in India means you may not want ships to be here.