I don’t think Ita necessarily needs more of a fleet to help secure Afr.
They start with 2 inf there, and can get inf, 1 arm there on Ita 1. The arm is important for blitzing. At this point the UK should just have the 2 inf in Safr/Rho. Round 2 you can get another 1 inf and 2 arm plus 1-2 ger units if you moved one to Balk or Bul (on G1) or even a Ukr survivor.
You simply can’t compete with a determined Allies assualt if they want Afr. It just isn’t possible. UK can dump 6 units and US can dump 8 (obviously not immediately) but very shortly. All you need is a tank or two to blitz and clear out the 2 inf in Safr, which again can be done on say Ita 3 with the units you drop off in Ita 1 and 2.
While you are doing that you can send inf/rt/arm to bul/ukr to threaten Russian and the remainder of your Afr core to Trj/Per (then reinforced by J). Once you claim the southern part of Afr via blitzing let Japan defend it for (assuming they have the resources) while you concentrate on Russia with Germany.
It doesn’t take too long for the Allies to nuetralize the Ita fleet, you simply have to assume you will lose it in Rd 3 (4 at the latest) unless you escape to the Red Sea. The Allies can also have a realistic token threat on Rome by Rd 3 with up to 4 UK ground units + planes and 4-6 US ground units plus planes. Not much but enough to make you regret buying ships on Ita 1-2 esp if you have them off the coast of Egy. And if the Allies do force you to defend Sz 14 then they can use their DDs/CAs for fodder if needed conserving their air.
Finally an Ita AC w/ftrs alone won’t necessarily deter an attack b/c Italy has no cheap fodder, after the first hit taken to the BB you are immediately losing CAs or ftrs. I’ll trade US or UK ftrs for either of those even if I can’t get to the AC or BB
For example (assume UK stacked Per and saved up to strike Trj on UK3) Teh US can realistically send 4 ftrs, 2 boms + rd 1 buys (assume US sees Ita buy an AC and buys 1 bom)
The US can then attack with:
4 ftrs, 3 boms vs. 2 ca, 1 ac, 2 ftrs, 1 bb
Say 4 hits to 4. The Italians already have to make a choice between losing ftr vs. ac.
Obviously that is just one example and takes some careful planning by the Allies (maybe some luck to), but the US is free to react to the Ita 1 buy (or non-buy) and easily has the flexibility to buy units to have a decent shot to sink the Ita fleet in rd 3.
Also if Ita buy a second trn before adding other ships, it probably won’t do them much good since it adds no defense to the fleet. The US will attack 2 CAs, 1 bb, X trns with as little as 2 ftrs, 2 boms.
Afr is important but you don’t want to spend more resources on it then it is worth.
I think you claim what you can early with Ita, try and delay when the Allies get to Lib/Egy, while you maybe free up a Jap trn or two to reinforce the Ita/Ger held parts of Afr.