As you get a bonus for conquering Baltic, East Poland & Ukraine, it`s obvioius to attack all 3 territories. Karelia certainly is not a good idea as you need the airforce for something else.

The biggest questin is really Egypt. With the bmb, you have a 61,3 % chance of taking it with arm, bmb (74,6 % to win). But in 19,4% you even loose and the UK-fgt survives and you certainly loose the trn. The trn can be whiped out in any case if UK sacrifices the bmb that lands in TRJ.

What you gain by EGY is 2 IPC fot the territory and UK looses a bonus of 5 and the average gain is 4,7 IPC in unit (calculated with Revised price of bmb, so it`s even more).

The opportunity costs are that you miss the bmb in other fights, that you have a 19,4% risk of loosing the trn “cheap” (with UK-fgt) and a certain 100% risk of loosing it anyway if UK desires.

If you do not attack EGY, attacking cru, des at Azores is a must as otherwise your Italian fleet could be attacked by des, cru AZO + fgt EGY + bmb GBR which has a 53% chance of winning and therefore whiping out both the german and italian trn.