EDIT These numbers below are incorrect. I’m going to leave this post here though to show how much of a dolt I am. Most of the ideas still stand. Corrections are in next post. /EDIT
Switch,
(this dialogue is fun) I don’t think your numbers are representative of chance. With your offense vs. defense, germany will only win about 50%?
Lets do a little NOLUCK to show what the most probably outcome of your battle is. I’ll take out 1 plane with the AA gun.
R: 50 = 8 hits carry 2
K: 48 = 8 hits
R: 13 2’s, 2 4’s = 34 = 6 hits + carry4 + carry2 = 7 hits
G: 3 1’s, 11 3’s, 1 4 = 40 = 6 hits carry 4
R: 7 2’s 2 4’s = 22 = 3 hits carry 4
G: 7 3’s, 1 4 = 25 = 4 hits + carry1 + carry 4 = 4 hits + carry 5
R: 3 2’s, 2 4’s = 14 = 2 hits + carry 4 + carry 2 = 3 hits
G: 4 3’s, 1 4 = 16 = 2 hits + carry 4 + carry 5 = 3 hits + carry 3
R: 2 4’s = 8 = 1 hit + carry 2
G: 1 3’s, 1 4 = 7 + carry 4 = 1 hit + carry 5
R: 1 4 = 4 + carry 2 = 1 hit
G: 1 4 = 4 + carry 5 = 1 hit
R: Dead
G: Dead
So you are left with nothing in no luck. Let ssay you were left with a unit, you could always take out your bomber earlier of course, but then you are left with one tank, and no air. What would you do? I assume put the tank there, and no build in karelia is nice. (please double check my math, I did once and found an error, but am going off the assumption it’s right).
Of course, in RR russia would move over to UK seas, which means your subs have a whopping 11% chance at a win. 54% chance you only kill 1 or no transports, and even if I have to take the transport casualty, I have my transport off of canada. Much less chance if you don’t take your trans.
This round, I roll into karelia with a BB shot, 2 inf, 2 fighters. I probably take with 2 inf, land my fighters in moscow. I send my bomber, battleship, and sub to your BB and transport. They are gone. The UK doesn’t even BOTHER building an AC because you have nothing to take it with. Depending on transports it has left, it can build a few. Lets say it only has 1 left, so it builds 2. Then 4 inf. The US builds as per darth’s suggestion 3 trans/2 inf. The US lands 2 inf in finland, 2 fighters, bomber in UK.
Next round: Russia builds 6 inf in karelia, 2 in moscow. You have two inf in eastern, 1 armor in berlin. You cannot possibly attack, so where do your forces go? I assume you move inf into eastern, maybe do a little dance in ukraine/caucus. You still have no air, bonus for UK. UK moves 4 inf + 1 arm into karelia. It attacks your caucus inf with 1 bmb + 2 ftrs + 2 inf. Maybe ukraine has two inf also? So I don’t bother attacking. If it only had 1 I might split forces. US builds another 2 trans, places some in eastern, the rest in western. Shuffles its troops into finland, shifts finland troops to karelia.
You quote “Come G3, Russia will ONLY have 13 INF, plus whatever UK and USA support has been moved in to defend against a German assault that could be as much as 18 INF, 5 tanks, and a bomber.” Where did your 18inf come from? In G2 you only had 2 left in eastern, then lets say you moved your 9 in. That’s 11 that can attack in G3. Meanwhile, russia has 6 + R3 build of 6 (caucus was retaken in UK2) + 2 from moscow = 14. On top of that, you have in UK2 moved 4 inf + 1 arm into karelia, and the US has moved in another 2 inf. Oh yeah, and the fighters.
In short, G3’s more likely outcome is ~11inf + 5 armor vs. 14 inf + 4 inf + 1 arm + 4 ftrs.
I think you need to re-evaluate this all out assault on karelia, or maybe I am missing something.
Ack, this thread took up way too much time and can’t respond to others now. Damn this whole thinking thing. Oh, btw, if I stack Yakut with 7 inf and the armor you only have a 51% chance of taking it, and that is saccing 3 fighters to do so. 3 1’s 3 3’s 1 4 vs. 8 2’s. That means you don’t take the land either, which means another 2 IPCs for russia, yippee.