Yeah you can still take Yunnan probably. But if you take Yunnan its less troops in India. It all depends how hard Japan wants to smack India.
Perhaps the greatest thing about not taking Phillipines round1 is that it gives the USA a false sense of confidence to go Pacific. Tricking the USA into going Pacific is a great way for Japan to take pressure off of Italy.
Actually the US can go toe to toe with Japan and do so quite effectively. It obviously depends on what Germany does, but the US earning 48 a turn is enough to take J islands and make it worth it.
For the German part, as the US, you have to be very careful if Germany buys ships or air on G1, that means they’d contest the Atlantic, which means you need more US resources there. But if Ger goes all land then that can open up more freedom for a potential full US Pac strat.
In some cases the US can move on Sol in Rd 2 but more likely it might be rd 3. But once you hold Sol Sz you can start to create some real mischief.
Assuming the J player can’t read minds and buys either trns or an IC on J1, after US 1 the US can field a fleet that consistes of:
1 UK DD
1 UK trn (with 1 inf, 1 rt)
3 US DD (bought 2)
2 US AC with 4 ftrs (bought 1 ac + 1 ftr)
2 boms in Wcan (or Wus)
So that is 4 dd, 2 ac, 4 ftrs + 2 boms lingering and threatening Sz 62.
10 units (12 if count bombers)
Most likely J will have:
1 ca, 1 bb, 3 ac, 6 ftrs (+2 ftrs lingering) - J lost 1 ftr, 1 dd on J1.
11 units (13 if counting all ftrs, but some will probably be in Asia)
At this point it becomes a chess match on how/when/where to move as well as what to buy. But it is definitely possible for the US to go after Japan. Spotting them 55 more ipcs on Rd 2 (which should still be a good +12-15 adv over J2), the US can drop another loaded AC, 1 trn, 1 dd, 1 sub.
Did Japan spend all of its Rd 2 money on a fleet? I’m not so sure it did. They likely bought some land units for Asia.
Again this all depends on how confident you are in your ability to handle Ger/Ita with UK and Russia and only minimal US support.
The best open would pobably be if Russia can take Fin in Rd 1 and Nor Rd 2, then UK can concentrate on Alg in Rd 2 and 3 with minimal US support, so by rd 4 you can look to head back to sz 6, but you might have to wait until Rd 5, it just depends on what Ger is doing. You can still sink the Italian fleet on UK 3 if you buy bombers on UK2 and you held Egy on G1. So a bid to Egy is a good play here.