Leningrad assault ( Karelia G1 )


  • “Leningrad assault”

    LOW LUCK STRAT

    German goals:

    1. G1 must take and hold Karelia trough the whole turn:
      Have 2 ground units surviving Karelia assault, reinforce it with 2 tanks of Poland in non-combat, ending with 1 inf, 1 art, 2 tank. Sacrifice fighters if you must. This ensure Russia can’t retake it round 1.

    2. G1 Egypt must fall or Sea zone 12 must be cleared:
      This is to ensure the Italian fleet will not be sunk ( as well as other obvious economic reasons )

    3. UK 1 must not be able to land troops in occupied Karelia:
      This is done by either sinking UK BB or using G BC to block sea zone 3, foregoing the extra shore bombardment.

    The moves:

    Assault on Leningrad

    • Take Karelia ( 3 infantry, 1 artillery, 3 fighters , cruiser/transport ( 93% to hold it with 2.8 unit not counting AA))
    • Reinforce Karelia: Non combat, 2 tanks from Poland to Karelia. This non-combat move is the twist here.

    Eastern front assault:

    • Take and Hold Baltic States ( 2 inf, 3 tanks )
    • Take and Hold East Poland ( 1tank, 2 inf, 1 art )
    • Take Ukraine ( 3inf, 1 art)
        Optionally, can forego Ukraine and 5 ipc NO. This ensure Stronger ratio in forces around Karelia as you can adjust forces in BS and EP.

    Atlantic sea/Egypt:

    • A) Sink UK battleship + transport ( 2 sub, 1 fighter ) to hold on Norway/Finland and prevent landing of UK1 forces in Karelia. Send Bomber and everything that can reach Egypt to take it G1. This is the preferred move.
      OR
    • B) Sink UK BC and destroyer (2 subs, 1 fighter ). Bomber should be sent against sea zone 6 DD with the Baltic sub to open the way for Baltic BC. However, this means in all cases that German Baltic cruiser will need to move in non combat to block sea zone 3 and won’t be able to help in Karelia assault. It also need to survive vs the Russian sub. It’s risky business

    Holding the north.
    Either maintain Baltic fleet or Build an IC in Finland. This is Highly based on which option you went with A or B for the Atlantic scenario.
    Prefered buys:
    A - 1 AC, 1 fighter, 1 inf and 1 art   ( My preferred option )
    A - All in: 2 IC ( Finland / Norway)
    B - IC ( France ) 1AA, 2inf, 1 art ( 1 aa, 1 fighter, 5 inf should be defending France )
    B - Tank dash: 5 tanks, 3 inf

    Strat overview:
    Plus: - Karelia is hold on G1, Germany achieves 2 NOs
          - Depending of buys, Russia has to fall back as far as Moscow, deadzoning Archangel
          - Russia can’t devote forces to reinforce India, which makes J2 easy
    Minus: - The Luftwaffe pays a heavy toll ( 2 to 3 fighters loss )
             - Small chances for the assault to go wrong, but relatively none with low luck.
             - Italian fleet is threatened by 1 bc, 1 des and 1 bomber attack.

    ===========================================================

    DICES STRAT

    Disclaimer: Not really a whole turn strat, added for close minded players that don’t see the whole turn so it’s preferable to leave other battles out as they can’t make the difference. So It only covers the 3 important battles and forego everything else in an attempt to get closer 100% odds. Good players will know how to divert their forces on other theaters/objectives and accept some risks

    Eastern front assault:

    • Take and Hold Baltic States ( 4 inf, 1 art, 4 tanks ) = 100% odds

    Atlantic sea:

    • A) Sink UK battleship + transport ( 2 sub, 1 fighter ) to hold on Norway/Finland and prevent landing of UK1 forces in Karelia. = 85% odds

    Assault on Leningrad

    • Take Karelia ( 3 infantry, 1 artillery, 3 fighters , 1 bomber, cruiser/transport = ( 93% to hold it with 2.8 units left)
    • Reinforce Karelia: Non combat, 2 tanks from Poland to Karelia. This non-combat move is the twist here as it gives you 4 units to defend Karelia versus Russia.

    Unrealistic calculation for success of all 3 battles would be around 80%.


  • All odds taken from trippleA simulations, if you do battlecalc and press calc more times you will see different results becouse this is just simulations, way to complicated to calculate it accurate for a small program like trippleA.
    So all the odds are just approximations.

    Option A odds:

    Assault on Leningrad 79.2% for wininng with at least 1unit surviving.77.2% if 1 land unit have to survive. Odds for 3 units survivng is lower around 55%, wont do the math now.
    Assault on Baltic States 96.3% for at least 1 surving land unit a bit lower if you want odds for more to survive.
    Assault on Eastern Poland 98.1% for at least 1 surving land unit a bit lower if you want odds for more to survive.
    Assault on UKraine 94.4% for at least 1 surving land unit a bit lower if you want odds for more to survive.
    Assault z2 84% for at least 1 surviving unit, dont care about the subs here so doesnt matter much
    Assault on Egypt 75.3% for at least 1 surving land unit a bit lower if you want odds for more to survive.

    Odds for all these 6 attacks will succeed in same game turn 1: 0.772 x 0.963 x 0.981 x 0.944 x 0.84 x 0.753 = 0.435 = 43.5%

    So basically youre prefered tactic have around 44% chance of winning, and then i havent used odds for more then 1 - ONE - 1 unit survivng each battle.

    As you can see youreself this should never be a viable option for someone looking for a consistent strategy for winning AA50 over many games, but will indeed be a game for the dices to determin. This is why low luck is not compareable to dices in AA50 as it might have been in revised and other games. This game is 110% balanced around the use of dices and dices only.

    Option B i will leave for you to do the maths, but the odds here are worse as you dont have as much firepower in the crucial fights.


  • I’m describing here my optimum assault G1 on Karelia and having the best chances to holding it, not saying it’s 100% sure or the best strat to use if you are a conservative player.

    Now, your 44% stat chances is way off.

    You list Baltic States, Eastern Poland, Ukraine as the crucial fights. ( when they are not so and when I already specifically mentioned you can forego Ukraine )

    The key fights as far as holding Karelia is concerned is the attack on Karelia and sinking the UK BB/TR that are in range to drop. I even offer a second option where you can avoid the fight altogether. Other theaters of war are just that, the fact I adress them does not change anything to holding Karelia itself ( which is the main goal here )

    I also find the way you calculate odds by multiplying each separate battle % a bit dubious.
    I prefer to say the key battles are at 79.82% for Karelia and 84% to sink UK BB. Which are good odds imho.  :wink:


  • well the odds of those 2 battles to succeed in the same game turn is: 0.7982 x 0.84 = 67%. And thats not dubious, thats how statistics are calced. If you want BOTH those attacks to survive in the same turn, thats 67% that will happen.

    I assume you also need baltic states as a crucial battle, as without it suceeding you wont be able to blitz 2 arms to deffend Karelia in ncm. The odds is then 0.7982 x 0.84 x 0.963 = 64.6%


  • One thing that needs to be adressed, I do strats based on low luck. Everyone does that. I am well aware of the dices vs low luck debate, and I will even tell you I prefer dices. Reality is, most players plays low luck.

    Now, one must be cautious when throwing %odds like you did. With low luck, an attack with 1 sub, 1 bomber and 1 fighter on the UK BB/TR is at 94% chances of success when in practice it is litterally 100% odds to win with anywhere between 1 to 3 units left.

    Also, If I was to stretch this debate, I could overlook everything else in the strat outside of holding Karelia. With low luck in mind :

    • 3 subs at the destroyer in sea zone 2,  100% sure. move BC to block z3
    • 4 tanks, 4 inf, 1art at Baltic States    100% sure
    • 4 jets, 1 bomber, 3inf/1 art to karelia  100% sure to end with at least 2 units ( 95%  up to 5 units ).

    Now that’s 100% chances… Not saying I would do it, but to demonstrates % can lie and if you don’t want to take any initial risk in your moves, it’s doable.

    Imho, when you do an axis turn with dices, you will have to risk that at least one opening move go wrong anyways. With dices, 100% does not exist and many games can end first round with a couple of snake eyes (1). With low luck, as I demonstrated, the odds you depicted are a good % higher if not litterally 100% sure.


  • as i said, low luck is a whole different game. And as i wrote, all my numbers are for dices. Most players dont play low luck, most players play dices, but maybe a majority on trippleA plays low luck!

    My numbers are correct for dices, and point beeing, basing youre strat around a strat with under 50% chance of success is not a good option in my opinion. There is good opening moves for Germany with a combined luck of 85-90% chance that is solid and consistent over a large sample size.

    the thing is you cant base youre tactics in AA50 around low luck if you are gonna play dices, that  will totally skew youre tactics, as battles with almost OR 100% chance of success in low luck might be a lot lower in dices.

  • Customizer

    Absolutely noone playing LL would not bid at least 3 ipcs and put an Infantry in Karelia, which makes this attack irrelevant in a LL game.
    Generally speaking, you will lose 1 or 3 fighters depending on the AA hits, if the AA does not hit, you lose 1 ftr to get your artillery/tank in there, if the AA does hit, you are going to lose the other 2 to get that art/tank in.  It is totally not worth it, especially considering you can just take Karelia the next turn anyway with your stacks in baltic and east poland.  The 5 ipc NO plus 1 build there is not worth the loss of your fighters, and the risky position you will be in by not using those fighters on other targets in the atlantic.
    Besides, the battle calc includes many results in it that you would not include in real life, such as when the enemy does 4 hits in the first round and you do 0-2, normally you would retreat your fighters, but the battle calc pretends that you stay and fight and get lucky and win with just 1 fighter/tank/art left.  I would say, in reality, including those times when you would retreat your planes, the actual chance to win is closer to just 70%, not 78%.  This isn’t great considering the cost.


  • Bids and dices are something out of the context of this strat.

    This strat does what it says, take and hold Karelia. Nothing more, nothing less.
    It does not pretend to be the best opening move
    It does not pretend to be 100% sure with dices
    It does not factor in bids which is completely random.
    It is flexible, nothing prevent you from diverting ressources from other theaters to achieve what you consider more favorable ‘‘dices’’ odds in Karelia if you must have it 100%. I figure 80% odds for that fight is good enough for myself.

    Veqryn, of course if there is a bid and Karelia is reinforced, I would hope a player is intelligent enough to not use this.

    I would also hope a player will conduct the UK BB/TR fight before the Karelia fight, so he knows if he is better to only do a strafe or go the whole way in Karelia.

    Now with all due respect, please, I am still willing to debate within the low luck context, NOs and no tech. But certainly don’t want to continue debating low luck vs dices or bids/ no bids. No offense meant.


  • Hey Corbeau,

    I tend to play with dice - and (being bored at work!) I tried out your strategy on triplea and got some good results - with good German dice. In fact - Germany held Karelia and had 3 Fighters!

    Russia was on the ropes.

    The only thing was that the British (I left the Cruiser to bombard) were left in the Atlantic with three destroyers and a cruiser - to which I added another cruiser and a 3 transports and 2 tanks. This was already a formidable force by UK2 which I used to decimate german units I had place in Karelia.

    Germany held Karelia - but she lost all her tanks there. The only tanks available were ones I had place in Germany on Round 2. Which would come through with a G1 infantry in round 3 I guess in east poland.

    Additionally - weak axis forces in the south have lost the eastern Europe NO to Russia.

    I don’t know. After all it’s just me playing solitaire on triplea and I’m definitely not the best player in the world - but I just reckon that Germany had great dice round 1, and won all her battles - had income of 52 IPCs. But the UK fleet simply cannot be ignored. Or you’ll have serious troubles holding those northern coasts…


  • Twigley, I did not adress round 2 but that’s why i recommend a buy of an AC + fighter, 1 inf/1art for German round 1 as my prefered option.

    This ensures Baltic fleet survives.

    Try it this way on round 2, reinforce Karelia with transport and buy 2 fighters, 9 inf and 1 transport. You should have 54 ipcs. I’d say 4-5 fighters (Italy helps), 6 tanks, and 2inf/2art can hold Karelia without serious losses.

    IF you aren’t prepare to reinforce Karelia, On G2, it’s still imperative to block UK drop in Karelia. A cheap trick for German to keep UK fleet at bay round 2 is simply moving the BC in sea zone 3. ( UK will still be able to land in friendly Archangel but they can’t directly attack Karelia that round )

    Don’t forget Japan( round 3) and Italy, they can send troops / fighters to help.

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