Simple question: is the game balanced?



  • migth happen i did wrong on the calculator, but read my last post again bogoo, thats 47% that you win all battles with 1 - ONE - 1 unit minimum. Thats NOT a good place to be. What you want is to decide how many units you need to be left with after turn 1, then calc the odds for that to happen and see if thats a situation you want to be in. For example you want all youre 6 armors on the eastern front alive. You want at least 3fgters and bomber alive, and you preferably want to take Egypt with at least 1 armor. Along with that you want enough inf on the eastern front to make sure you can trade territories for youre 2nd NO wihtout have to use armors to trade those territorries. Again go and check the league and tournament G1 turns and you will see almost if not everyone do a more conservative G1 as on a consistent basis you will not have enough units left after G1 if you do that opening.


  • Customizer

    I view taking Karelia turn 1 in 1941 as very inadvisable.  Yes, it is basically 78% chance to win, with an average of 3 units left… but you are attacking with 3 ftrs, so that means you either lose a ftr and keep karelia, or you merely destroy his stack.  Also, you have a 55% chance of losing at least 1 ftr out of 3 from the AA gun (no, it is not 50%, it is 55%, statistics is fun!)



  • Interesting debate about openings here, but I really don’t see that much variation for the German opening. Egypt attack is such a good thing IPC-wise for Germany that they would be foolish not to. An 80% attack giving loads of IPCs in Africa while at the same time robbing UK of a fighter, an NO and loads of African IPCs…  :roll:

    Japan though is another case since you’ll be attacking against destroyers with fighters, so that’s more random. Attacking the Indian fleet seems a must, but the West coast fleet could be forgone maybe. I’m also very ambivalent about invading Burma or not on turn 1, it sets up against India nicely but might upset your other moves. Maybe it’s Japan who should be dealt a low-risk opening?



  • Good question about low risk Japan opening Lynxes. But does it matter as much as with Germany?

    How is Japan’s high risk opening punished? The Russians and Brits in Europe have the foundations of a powerful attack force which can be rallied against a reckless Germany. Who’s there in the pacific to punish the Japanese?



  • Lynxes: my german opening now is never Egypt turn 1. Reason beeing on turn im 110% sure to take it HARD with enough forces to make sure i get all the african IPCs at least for a few turns. What i do is taking Ukraine hard with 4armors, and shuffle units to Lib turn 1. Italy either shore bombard Egypt to soften it if he stacks it hard (z35 dd survived and he moved 2 indian units there) or take Egypt if he stacked Persia / TrJ. Then on turn 2 i fetch 2 more units from Ukraine to Egypt and now i have a solid african corps that can hold africa for a much longer time suplemented with the Italian reinforcements.



  • @Veqryn:

    @bugoo:

    Actually the odds are better than 58, that is without the bomber at egypt.

    Kar - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 3 fig, 1 cruiser bombard vs R: 5 inf, 1 art, 1 AA gun = 78% odds typically 3 units left
    Egypt - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm vs B: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 fig = 90% odds typically 3 units left
    SZ 2 - G: 2 sub, 1 fig vs B: 1 BB = 83% odds typically 1 unit left
    Baltic - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 3 inf = 95% typically 3 units left
    Poland - G: 2 inf, 4 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 5 units left
    Ukraine - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 3 units left

    Now those are pretty good odds, but with the small number of units anything can happen.  Baltic/Poland/Ukraine if you loose you were gonna loose anyway, and it still sets up the can opener for G2.  Provided you do not get diced hard in any of the fights, you should win, esp when your collecting 50+ IPC to spend on G2.  And of course, J1 can get dicey too, I’ve seen the pearl fight go south before, or the DD at india destroy 2 figs, etc.  Typically if J looses 2 figs on J1 and the DD at pearl your alright as allies, if they loose no figs, or keep the DD, it can get ugly real fast.  Same with the 3 inf vs 1 inf fights if they take that route in china.  Playing with dice though, I see no reason not to play to win on turn 1 with axis, the odds are in your favor.  Also, even when the dice do bite you, many allied players get too aggressive in there counter attacks on turn 1 making it hard for them to hit in force in the mid game.

    Actually the odds are worse.  Although each of your 5 battles has very good odds individually, the odds of you winning ALL 5 of those battles is just 53% (multiply all your odds together as decimals).  And i do not know how you got those odd for Egypt, because 5 germany units vs 5 uk units = 41% win, not 90%

    For a few other kinds of openings:

    My Heavy without Karelia:
    Seazone 2 (1sub,1bomb,1ftr): 95%
    Seazone 6 (1sub, 1ftr): 92%
    Seazone 12 (1sub, 2ftr): 86%
    Baltic States (1bombard, 5inf, 2art, 1tank): 100%
    East Poland (1inf, 3tank): 98%
    Ukraine (2inf, 1art, 2tank): 99%
    Egypt (2inf, 1art, 2tank): 34% win + 7% no uk left = 41% (this attack is optional)
    Chance of winning all without doing Egypt: 72% (<- a strong opening without NOs)
    Chance of winning all with Egypt: 30%

    My Risky with Egypt, without Karelia:
    Seazone 2 (2sub,1ftr): 83%
    Seazone 6 (1sub, 1ftr): 92%
    Seazone 12 (2ftr): 50% win + 15% no enemy left = 65% (optional attack)
    Baltic States (1bombard, 5inf, 2art, 1tank): 100%
    East Poland (1inf, 3tank): 98%
    Ukraine (2inf, 1art, 2tank): 99%
    Egypt (2inf, 1art, 2tank, 1bomber): 75% win + 5% no uk left = 80%
    Chance of winning all without doing sz12: 59% (<- a strong opening with NOs)
    Chance of winning all with sz12: 38%

    Super Risky with Egypt and Karelia:
    Seazone 2 (2sub,1ftr): 83%
    Seazone 6 (1sub): 40% win + 20% no units left = 60%
    Karelia (1bombard, 3inf, 1art, 3ftrs) = 78% chance (50% chance you will lose 1 ftr, 5.56% chance you will lose 2, 0.5% chance you will lose 3.  [55.1% chance you will lose at least 1 ftr], if you lose zero you have 89% chance winning, lose 1 ftr you have 68% chance winning, lose 2 ftr you have 35% chance)
    Baltic States (4inf, 1art, 1tank): 98%
    East Poland (1inf, 4tank): 99%
    Ukraine (2inf, 1art, 1tank): 97%
    Egypt (2inf, 1art, 2tank, 1bomber): 75% win + 5% no uk left = 80%
    Chance of winning all without doing sz6: 49%
    Chance of winning all with sz6: 29%

    IL’s Not Risky without Karelia and Abandon Africa:
    Seazone 2 (1sub,1bomb,1ftr): 95%
    Seazone 6 (1sub, 1ftr): 92%
    Seazone 12 (1sub, 2ftr): 86%
    Baltic States (1bombard, 5inf, 2art, 1tank): 100%
    East Poland (1inf, 4tank): 99%
    Ukraine (pulling 1inf and 1tank from africa: 3inf, 1art, 2tank): 100%
    Chance of winning all: 74% (<- Strong opening with or without NOs, though Italy will never get its NOs)

    I believe that is pretty much all 4 different openings with Germany that people use, subject to slight modifications and subject to what you decide to buy as germany.

    great post.  While those are certainly some of my common opening moves, I have a couple high risk ones that throw a solo bomber in SZ 9.
    Example:
    SZ6: 1 fig 1 sub (92%)
    SZ2: 2 sub 1 fig (83%)
    SZ9: 1 bomb (75%)
    SZ12: 2 fig (50%)
    Egy: 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm (34% win + 7% no uk left = 41%)
    Baltic States: 4 inf, 2 art, 1 crusier bomb (99%)
    East Poland: 2 inf, 3 Arm (99%)
    Ukraine: 3 Inf, Arm, 1 Art (99%)

    A 56% chance not counting SZ 12 or Egy, a 28% chance of complete success not counting Egypt, 10% chance with taking Egypt, and a 12% chance of clearing all Egy units.



  • /Pin

    Not attacking EGY G1 is an Indian IC waiting to happen. UK gets at least 1 arm+1fig to India, and if the Russians send 4 inf and UK transfers 2 figs from Europe you could end up with as much as 7 inf, 1 art, 4 arm, 3 figs in India turn 3… Most assumptions on an Indian IC not being viable are based on a German attack on Egypt and I certainly think it looks different otherwise.



  • Ah, and the India IC means Japanese IC’s on East Indies and Borneo.  Which also means Japan doesn’t have to spend for one on India.

    Which also means for England to support the India IC, Germany gets a free ride all the way to Moscow.

    I personally welcome the India IC, but that is just me.



  • @Octopus:

    Ah, and the India IC means Japanese IC’s on East Indies and Borneo.  Which also means Japan doesn’t have to spend for one on India.

    Which also means for England to support the India IC, Germany gets a free ride all the way to Moscow.

    I personally welcome the India IC, but that is just me.

    I would imagine somewhat of a US pacific naval presence mixed with the UK bomber and maybe an American bomber could make this a non optimal position for Japan.  In theory the UK should be making an adequate amount for a 2 front war, meaning they are putting up a worthwhile delay of Japan (otherwise the IC is worthless) as well as the US being able to hold 2 fronts.

    Even if this isn’t the case I feel the attack on Egypt is a must.  If you can clear it, there is a great chance Japan can clear all the UK units in central Asia T2, no matter what the UK does (unless Russia makes a heavy commitment in Persia), this can put a thorn in the allies that is extremly difficult to recover from most times.



  • @Lynxes:

    /Pin

    Not attacking EGY G1 is an Indian IC waiting to happen. UK gets at least 1 arm+1fig to India, and if the Russians send 4 inf and UK transfers 2 figs from Europe you could end up with as much as 7 inf, 1 art, 4 arm, 3 figs in India turn 3… Most assumptions on an Indian IC not being viable are based on a German attack on Egypt and I certainly think it looks different otherwise.

    "Edit, you wont get the armor to India, it will only get to Persia round 1, so for a Round 2 attack by japan setup correctly you will have:

    4inf (2from sum 2from brn), 2inf 1art (what remains from Burma attack, if you loose 1inf in the attack thats 1inf 1art), 3fgters from FIC, 2fgters from z37 (those 2 attacked dd in z35 so 1 might be dead)

    this leaves us with an attakcking force on India with at least: 5inf 1art 4fgters, with good possiblitiy for another inf and fgter.

    This is up against 7inf 1art 1fgter unless Russia reinforce MORE then 4inf.

    Again, the Burma attack i will only do if Russia moves those infs and “fake” and IC build. This cost me the attack on Fuk and Kwa, but makes Hupeh more likely to succeed. Alternativly i will still do Kwa and just attack burma with 1inf 1art and hope thats enough."

    –-----

    If i see 4 russian inf move towards india T1, i setup a IC in FIC turn 1, and also make my moves so i have enough firepower to take India turn 2 if needed, turn 3 latest, without anyway for UK or russia to prevent it unless russia sends armors there turn 2 aswell. If they do that GG, Germany will win the war for the axis. The UK IC means less money spent to land units in Europe, and even though japan doesnt take it, it only means UK will keep building units every turn in India to make sure he holds it, will never be able to utilize those troops.

    Unless you go a risky opening turn 1 with both Ger and Jap and fails an UK IC anywhere (might be a  slight exception with Saf) is a total failure and will most likely cost the allies the game if they use resources to keep it. As this means not enough pressure on Germany from the west, and germany can use all its force to crush Russia (russia can never withstand Germany all alone, she needs at least a decent threath on the other front to make her hold her ground)



  • @Pin:

    @Lynxes:

    /Pin

    Not attacking EGY G1 is an Indian IC waiting to happen. UK gets at least 1 arm+1fig to India, and if the Russians send 4 inf and UK transfers 2 figs from Europe you could end up with as much as 7 inf, 1 art, 4 arm, 3 figs in India turn 3… Most assumptions on an Indian IC not being viable are based on a German attack on Egypt and I certainly think it looks different otherwise.

    "Edit, you wont get the armor to India, it will only get to Persia round 1, so for a Round 2 attack by japan setup correctly you will have:

    4inf (2from sum 2from brn), 2inf 1art (what remains from Burma attack, if you loose 1inf in the attack thats 1inf 1art), 3fgters from FIC, 2fgters from z37 (those 2 attacked dd in z35 so 1 might be dead)

    this leaves us with an attakcking force on India with at least: 5inf 1art 4fgters, with good possiblitiy for another inf and fgter.

    This is up against 7inf 1art 1fgter unless Russia reinforce MORE then 4inf.

    Again, the Burma attack i will only do if Russia moves those infs and “fake” and IC build. This cost me the attack on Fuk and Kwa, but makes Hupeh more likely to succeed. Alternativly i will still do Kwa and just attack burma with 1inf 1art and hope thats enough."

    –-----

    If i see 4 russian inf move towards india T1, i setup a IC in FIC turn 1, and also make my moves so i have enough firepower to take India turn 2 if needed, turn 3 latest, without anyway for UK or russia to prevent it unless russia sends armors there turn 2 aswell. If they do that GG, Germany will win the war for the axis. The UK IC means less money spent to land units in Europe, and even though japan doesnt take it, it only means UK will keep building units every turn in India to make sure he holds it, will never be able to utilize those troops.

    Unless you go a risky opening turn 1 with both Ger and Jap and fails an UK IC anywhere (might be a  slight exception with Saf) is a total failure and will most likely cost the allies the game if they use resources to keep it. As this means not enough pressure on Germany from the west, and germany can use all its force to crush Russia (russia can never withstand Germany all alone, she needs at least a decent threath on the other front to make her hold her ground)

    Right an India IC is kind of a T3 buy for me if I decide on it with the UK.  It really hurts Japan though as It can not take and hold India T1 or 2 if the armor and fighter survive (especially compounded if the UK has a bomber down there).  It becomes very difficult to get enough pressure down there quickly.  Japan has to be careful with India.  You can risk buying it on T1, but you ought to know it will not come into use untill T3, as Japan can take it at will on T2.



  • thing is you will never win a game vs a decent opponent with a India IC in AA40 unless there was wacky dices somewhere. Its just not possible in this game. Ofc there is several instances where dices will make it profitable and maybe optimal to place an IC there, but thats not the issue if Germany not attack Egypt T1(they still have to shuffle units to africa though). A horrible failed Egypt T1 attack by germany might be a situation where it will be profitable, or even more so if japanese fails z35 turn1.

    Thats whats so dynamic about this game, there is no standard response that will allways work for the allies, they have to adopt to where the dices was whacky turn one by the axis attacks, or respond to a conservative T1 by the axis.



  • @Pin:

    thing is you will never win a game vs a decent opponent with a India IC in AA40 unless there was wacky dices somewhere.

    You can in 1942 scenario. Of course, not in 1941 one



  • my bad was only referring to AA50 -41 with NOs, only version i played and analyzed a lot.



  • @Pin:

    thing is you will never win a game vs a decent opponent with a India IC in AA40 unless there was wacky dices somewhere. Its just not possible in this game. Ofc there is several instances where dices will make it profitable and maybe optimal to place an IC there, but thats not the issue if Germany not attack Egypt T1(they still have to shuffle units to africa though). A horrible failed Egypt T1 attack by germany might be a situation where it will be profitable, or even more so if japanese fails z35 turn1.

    Thats whats so dynamic about this game, there is no standard response that will allways work for the allies, they have to adopt to where the dices was whacky turn one by the axis attacks, or respond to a conservative T1 by the axis.

    I agree completly, I thought we were talking about a completly botched attempt at Egypt though (which while uncommon is still a big enough probablity to consider and adjust for).  Things that I think are very clear to recognize about an Indian IC/ or attacking India in general regardless: 1) Japan can take India T2, no matter what (disregarding preposterous game breaking luck) 2)Japan can quickly run into a supply/re-enforcment problem with India if the British can make a decent counter attack on it.  Japan has to be very cautious with India if Britain has grouped all it’s units in Persia (with maybe a little USSR help and the UK bomber) and Japan can’t wipe the British out T2.  To me this is a very key, and somewhat luck driven (due to what happens in Egypt/maybe how lucky the USSR was in T1) part of the game.

    Yes if you build an IC in India T1-T3 for the UK in 90% of the games it is a game breakingly bad move; but there is certainly a time and place to consider one that people should note that ,while uncommon, isn’t so crazy rare that it is a virtual impossability.



  • I realize this game is only about weather the german tank blitz can be stopped(on russia).
    Keys for allied success #1….the russians must never let the Italians  clear a way for G tanks to move in to moscow.#2…British and American forces must build navy and transports,send aircraft if nessasary to russia,america must pull out of the pacific and maybe an IC in NOR fin.#3 …russia conglomerate inf in Bury and reinforce india with 2 infintry…British and american forces must save russia and bring down germany ,gaining more $$$ from germany/italy then what the allies lose from japanesse gains…I welcome any feedback.



  • Actually best way to make an indian IC work is not Russian INF, but russian armor.  You have two neat options with this, you can buy a bomber to take down the Indies trannie and move 2 inf into persia, and/or buy 3 armor plus the starting one and leave them on cauc.  Then on UK turn you either A) build indian IC with russian armor showing up on R2, or buy bombers as the russians can ensure you take trans-jordan for a UK2 Italian fleet strike.  The real fun with the russian armor in india is two-fold.  1) UK can can opener on UK2 into berma to allow russian armor to hit fic if underdefended.  2) armor can pull back on R2 once US/UK figs land in india, or another fun buy is 2 AC with Indian IC landing US figs on them, granting those figs a HUGE strike range as UK can move 'em 2 spaces and US can then move them 4 on her turn.  Also, it is unlikely japan can sink 2 loaded carriers AND assault India on J3, even if the russian armor runs away.  Just a bunch of theory craft though  :evil:.



  • @bugoo:

    Actually best way to make an indian IC work is not Russian INF, but russian armor.  You have two neat options with this, you can buy a bomber to take down the Indies trannie and move 2 inf into persia, and/or buy 3 armor plus the starting one and leave them on cauc.  Then on UK turn you either A) build indian IC with russian armor showing up on R2, or buy bombers as the russians can ensure you take trans-jordan for a UK2 Italian fleet strike.  The real fun with the russian armor in india is two-fold.  1) UK can can opener on UK2 into berma to allow russian armor to hit fic if underdefended.  2) armor can pull back on R2 once US/UK figs land in india, or another fun buy is 2 AC with Indian IC landing US figs on them, granting those figs a HUGE strike range as UK can move 'em 2 spaces and US can then move them 4 on her turn.  Also, it is unlikely japan can sink 2 loaded carriers AND assault India on J3, even if the russian armor runs away.  Just a bunch of theory craft though  :evil:.

    ……And Hitler goose steps in the open backdoor…



  • Well, I’m not saying India IC is a simple thing, there are a lot of ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ such as:

    1. Can UK escape with all of their Egypt force? Italian invasion of TRJ has 1 inf, 1 arm+shore bombard and shouldn’t be enough. Then you have 2 inf, 1 art as well as the armor and fighter in India turn 3.
    2. Does Japan stack up for a turn 2 all-out assault? If so, does Russia have the forces to spare for bolstering India against that attack? This usually can be possible if Caucasus isn’t too threatened and UK can help out invading Karelia. A heavy German push vs. Caucasus can of course make it impossible to help India, but skilled Russian play can often block or break down such an advance.
    3. If you do lose India turn 2, can you take it back and if so does Japan have enough in their second wave? Typically you withdraw most troops to Persia and move into India after that. Holding India after that depends on if Japan sends troops to China and Siberia or if they forgo those theaters and move all they got at India (and if you can’t hold, of course, it might be better to play defensively in Persia and Caucasus).
    4. Can you transfer air force to India? UK figs and bomber via Russia, US figs via Australia. This only happens if you survive turn 2 assault by Japan or if you later get a strong India.
    5. Can you by an US naval offensive hinder the deployment of all of Japan’s air force at India? This especially counts if there’s a drawn-out stackfest around India or if Japan builds ICs in East Indies, then a US naval offensive is vital.

    All in all, SAF IC is a better choice in most games but sometimes India IC is viable and a German passive strategy in Africa on turn 1 can increase the chance of India IC being viable. If successful, an Indian IC can block Japan from a quick strike at Caucasus and be a real pain in the XXX for the Axis.

    PS. The Dardenelles optional rule by the way, should increase chances of Indian IC since Italy can’t invade Caucasus. I haven’t played more than one game with this rule since most people want to play OOB, but I must say it really makes sense to me. DS.


  • Customizer

    Any money spent my the UK in Egypt/South Africa/India is money not spent landing in France/Poland.  If I was the Japan, no matter what my strategy was, or how badly my luck failed me, and I saw an IC in india, I would make it priority number 1, to the exclusion of even China and russia and usa.  You can be sure it will fall within a couple turns of it being built.

    Anyway, we are rather off topic……



  • With my friends, we play with Dardanelles closed and I gotta say that this limit Italy alot and gives Russia the opportunity to counter attack without fearing the Italian troops. Yes, the Italians can still clear a path, but it’s much harder with their ground troops (Italy have little tanks, and little infantry)

    With Dardanelles closed, the Allies certainly see their chance of winning increase.

    That said, with or without the Dardanelles closed, I believe this game to be fair for both side. I’ll give a slight advantage to the Axis simply because of their strong start.

    Right now, we just discovered 42. We feel it is more balanced than 41 (for some reason, and maybe it is really more balanced).
    Personally, I’d say this : If you want to balance (if it isn’t) 41, just remove some Japanese transports (I don’t believe in the “add some Chinese units”). 42 shows how Japan is weaker in the first few turns because it lacks transports. Like force them to take 1-2 more turn in order to take the free 8 ipcs in East Indies/Borne or something, or prevent them from sending that many ground forces in their first turn. From there, you will see how it limits Japan’s capabilities.

    Robert


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