If US lost the battle of Midway

@martin-of-tours

Based on how the Japanese command and the decisions they would have likely made, there would have been almost no impact on the war. The Iowa class battleships, which were awesome, but arguably had little impact strategically would have had their resources shifted to speed up the building of the Essex class carriers, with little expense on the Soviet Union or the British. The US would not need to defend California or even shift resources for it-the US can easily just activate their militia (remember the Second Amendment). Japan would not have invaded (or even thought of) invading the continental US, and capturing Midway or Hawaii (a formidable task in itself) would still have made it hard, if not impossible, to win in an invasion. Japan would have needed more ships and men than planned for Operation Downfall, which would be impossible, considering only the US could muster that large of a force. Japan would also have to deal with China, the threat of the Soviet Union, and the British. It would have been a waste of a victory, as Japanese troops would probably have been slaughtered on the beaches of Midway.

Now if the Japanese political and military leadership was headed by people who know what they’re doing, then absolutely! This would have set the US back quite a lot. The Japanese then should have adopted a strong dug in defence, operating the capital ships only in range of powerful land based aircraft and submarines, coming up with an effective convoy system, and working with the army to coordinate operations. This could have taken up so many US resources to beat that the Soviets would have had a lesser victory at Stalingrad, and Rommel could have held out longer in Tunisia if there were less forces in Operation Torch.

The best thing for the Japanese to do, of course, is to attack the Soviet Union. The Far Eastern troops were grossly exaggerated by the Soviets (which the Japanese willingly believed after Kahlkin Gol), and replacements for the ones that have been siphoned off west were generally worse, with little training. The Japanese air force was less outnumbered by the Soviets than the Germans were, and had even more of a quality advantage. The Japanese could have easily destroyed most of the Soviet Pacific fleet in days, destroyed the Red air force in an even more total fashion than the Germans did, and captured Vladivostok. Japan’s decisions are kind of stupid when they basically thought that they had a greater chance of defeating the US, a nation that has had their resources not yet tapped in any way (except Lend Lease) than the Soviet Union, whose cream of forces were destroyed in 1941, their replacements almost always understrength (most Soviet cavalry divisions were less than a third of a real division, rifle and tank brigades were only a quarter of even a small World War 2 division, and rifle divisions were only half as effective as a German infantry division), suffered enormous equipment and officer shortages, and had horrible logistics. In addition, many Soviet units had little training, and were expected to get that on the job fighting, leading to huge casualties. And that’s the west! The Far East forces were infinitely more inferior. As for oil, Japan could have reduced American unhappiness by doing withdrawing partially from French Indochina and reducing operation in China, both of which are necessary anyway for mustering forces. Diplomatic decisions are much easier to reverse than military ones, and the US would have saw the invasion as a removal of a threat to American interests in the Pacific (both Japan and the Soviet Union would have their hands tied up). Coupled with a better German strategy, the war in the East could have been won in 1941.

I strongly recommend you read Nigel Askley’s books, who give the most detailed account of Operation Barbarossa, detailing German and Soviet mobilisations, production values, and reinforcements, all used for a war simulation. I haven’t bought them all and don’t read them entirely (only the parts I’m interested in), but they are very good books, and more are being written. The part about Soviet Far East forces (Volume 3B) is very well done, and they also cover the Soviet and German air forces and navies.

Thank you for looking into that, Worsham.
I am aware Rommel was often short of good German tanks, that is why I made my comment.

@Gargantua:

Whats a plan orange battle?

Plan Orange was a U.S plan to defeat the Japanese in a large Jutland type battle in between the war years.

It is early yet Garg.
The Civil War was lost in the West, starting with Nashville and Vicksburg was a greater loss than Nashville.  I agree that a Southern victory at Gettysburg would not have equated to the fall of Washington or an armistice, despite Lee’s hopes for one.

We got our ass kicked, whats to know?

@Dylan:

@Octospire:

@Dylan:

@allboxcars:

@Dylan:

If the Battle of Britain went well for Germany, do you think the US and USSR could still win against Germany and Italy.

If Britain made peace with Germany in 1940 (on whatever terms take her out of the fight), US wouldn’t have been at war with Germany in 1941.

#607

Germany might still declare war on them.

On the U.S or on the British?
The Americans would of never gone to war with the Nazi’s had the British been defeated they would of had no place to refuel the American ships on the European side of the Atlantic, no place to land their aircraft for strategic bombing. Had Germany got a peace treaty from the British that would of been it, game over for the Americans even before the war started. Britain was the launching point for all the allied invasions of North Africa, Italy and France so without it reclaiming those areas from Nazi control would of been impossible. Also American isolationist policies would of not of been changed if Pearl Harbour wasnt attacked and I dont think the Japanese would be stupid enough to go to war with the U.S and the British empire all on their own.

Had Britian made peace with the Germans it would not of been a “surrender” as such it would of been considered the meeting of two equals to forge a peace and no doubt at Hitlers insistance an Anglo-Germanic alliance just like he had envisioned and pressed for in the 1930’s. Germany was now the equal of Britain and the Nazi’s would make sure they were treated in that way. The only reason there wasnt an alliance between Germany and Britain because Britain had a vested interest in maintaining the status quo while the Germans wanting to expand their empire had other ideas entirely. Its not that hard to imagine a joint German and British army formation with RAF and Luffwaffe planes roaring overhead attacking Moscow and mopping the floor with the Soviets.

Many people in Britain did not considered Hitler and the Nazi’s to be their enemy, yes they were the enemy of the continental european powers but not their enemy. At the time before the bombing of British citys in the “phoney war” Stalin and the USSR was seen as the much greater threat to British interests in the future. Hitler was very reasonable to the British he offered them peace as equals that allowed Britian to keep her empire and his only clause was that the Nazi’s have free reign in Europe.

But Germany might force the issue on the US.

I doubt it, going to war with the United States would require a foothold in the America’s and allies like Mexico and other Latin American countries. It would of taken probably at least a decade to pacify Europe under Nazi rule and then who knows, especially if Hitler got his Alliance with the British. With the industrial might of the France, Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union at their disposal, the British and Latin Americans as allies and the massive technological advantage they would of had over the U.S its possible that if they wanted to they could win a war against the United States.

Although I think its doubtful that the British if Allied with Germany against the Soviets would of turned on the Americans, If a Anglo-Germanic alliance had of happend following a ceasefire in 1940 and then crushed the Soviet Union I think that Hitler/British would of been happy to rule Eurasia and Africa. Like another poster said in another thread its much more likely that following a Nazi alliance victory in Europe that a facist party would come to power in the United States in order to drag their country out of the depression.

What has to be remembered is that the U.S was still in the economic doldrums right up until their involvement in WW2 without the war its possible that the economic stagnation may of continued for another decade possibly more its hard to tell, it depends on the party in power and the president at the times idea on how to deal with the crisis.

That’s a good read. Very much a worthy first effort.

Midway without doubt.
The beginning of the end for the Imperial japanese navy.