New odds calc for AAAE

Uberlager, yes, that example is clearly correct. Not sure what your point is though, because the issue with the program is with the “Must take territory” button, which is not needed for that particular battle you just gave. I’m pretty sure that the prog works fine if you don’t use that button.

@Uberlager:

I will reiterate that you need to look at the probability of 0 units remaining as not being part of the distribution.  It is merely the chance of losing the battle.  The chance of winning the battle is actually greater, but is distributed over the number of units you can expect to survive.  Therefore, each row will individually be less than the ‘0 units’ line.

Yeah, I basically agree with this, I think I just worded my previous post poorly. So I’ll try again.  :-)

I understand that the 0 units result will often have a higher probability than each of the other individual rows. I’m saying in the particular battle DY gave, the 0 unit result should be much, much lower, since it’s at the extremity of the curve. It should not have a big spike because the probability of getting 9 or more hits as the attacker (i.e. 0 defending units left) is very low.

What I was trying to point out though, is that 0 unit result is not “merely” the chance of losing the battle and should be ignored as part of the distribution. It has meaning if you realize that the probability distribution for the surviving defenders is really just a reflection of the probability distribution of the number of hits the attacker rolls.

Specifically, the 0 units remaining result is the chance that the opposing side rolls a number of hits equal to or greater than the number of units you have. So, if the attacker rolls 10 hits and you only have 9 units, its counted under the 0 unit result (since you can’t have -1 units), just as if he had rolled only 9 hits. Thus, the 0 unit result is the sum of multiple probability events for the attacker, all of which have the same meaning in game terms: 0 units surviving. This is in contrast to the other results, which represent only one specific number of hits rolled.

That’s basically all I was getting at when I said the 0 units result was the rest of the distribution curve crammed into one category.

Well other than the one bug, this sim appears to be a really good application  :roll:

@Dash_Riprock:

Uhh sorry I haven’t been back here in a while, I’ll look into that bug and try to fix whatever other bugs people have been mentioning and post an updated version whenever I get a chance.

Hey, that’s awesome. Didn’t think we would hear from you again.  :-D

Thanks, d/l’ing now.

I was able to download it…. very nice!

@Adlertag:

only whimps use odds calculators  :wink:

real men gamble  8-)

Well said!

@Dash_Riprock:

That bug should be fixed now.  I also made it so you can now use any number of defending fighters in a naval battle, since as someone pointed out the calc could be used half way into a battle once the carriers are already sunk.

Sweet, thanks.  This is - by far - the best odds calc I’ve used.

Thanks for the fix.

On the quality of the final product – I’m with Uberlagger  :-)

Rip, this a very nice tool.
However, I’ve noticed that it’s not computing heavy bombers using 2 dice per bomber.  If I put in one heavy bomber attacking 2 units, there is a zero percent chance of both units being hit.  Do you guys use the house rule that you take the best of the 2 dice?  The default OOB rule is each heavy can get two hits because they roll 2 dice, and that’s the way most people play.  Any chance the tool can be updated for that?
I know you haven’t posted anything here for 6 months, but thought if I posted on your thread you might see it.
Thanks

Terrific, thanks a lot.
Again, this calculator has helped me tremendously.  Thank you very much.

Hey guys, I was able to unzip the file only to find that it doesn’t contain any .exe file, just a bunch of “classs” files. Did I download the wrong thing? I’d appreciate any help given. Thanks.

@Modern:

Hey guys, I was able to unzip the file only to find that it doesn’t contain any .exe file, just a bunch of “classs” files. Did I download the wrong thing? I’d appreciate any help given. Thanks.

It might be easiest if you provide me with your e-mail address and I’ll e-mail the single file to you.

Just private message me with it, or else change your user options to allow showing your e-mail address and let me know.

Thanks! Sent a PM (new to the forums, I certainly THINK I sent a PM) to you with my email.

I’ve been looking for a good odds calculator and this one sounds great  :-D

@Dash_Riprock:

@gamerman01:

Rip, this a very nice tool.
However, I’ve noticed that it’s not computing heavy bombers using 2 dice per bomber.  If I put in one heavy bomber attacking 2 units, there is a zero percent chance of both units being hit.  Do you guys use the house rule that you take the best of the 2 dice?  The default OOB rule is each heavy can get two hits because they roll 2 dice, and that’s the way most people play.  Any chance the tool can be updated for that?
I know you haven’t posted anything here for 6 months, but thought if I posted on your thread you might see it.
Thanks

should be fixed now

The new FAQ

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=16872.msg563184#msg563184

indicates that now (only) the best result of the two dice counts.

So you probably want to re-update your tool :-)

@Modern:

Hey guys, I was able to unzip the file only to find that it doesn’t contain any .exe file, just a bunch of “classs” files. Did I download the wrong thing? I’d appreciate any help given. Thanks.

The AAProbability.jar is not intended to be unzipped, as it is a Java-program.
If you have JRE installed, just doubleclick on the file and it will run.

@P@nther:

@Modern:

Hey guys, I was able to unzip the file only to find that it doesn’t contain any .exe file, just a bunch of “classs” files. Did I download the wrong thing? I’d appreciate any help given. Thanks.

The AAProbability.jar is not intended to be unzipped, as it is a Java-program.
If you have JRE installed, just doubleclick on the file and it will run.

I already sent it to him a while back, and he’s already using it, thanks.

@P@nther:

The new FAQ

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=16872.msg563184#msg563184

indicates that now (only) the best result of the two dice counts.

So you probably want to re-update your tool :-)

Unbelievable.
When I had this question, Krieg answered that it was 2 hits per bomber.  I noticed the rulebook did not clearly state this, however.
Krieg has also said that paratroopers could advance past the first blitzed territory.
Now both of these Krieg answers have been undone.  Unbelievable is all I can say.