I disagree. That carrier will probably be floating when Berlin falls, or the Allies will build just as they usually do and sink it with the Americans without so much as a serious dent. Sure, America may lose a transport or two and get their battleship damaged, but otherwise, no serious damage.
(I’m assuming you have 6 transports, battleship, carrier, 4 or 5 fighters and a bomber for the attack with 2 transports as pure fodder leaving you with 4 transports to get to England and 4 more to land troops in Euro-Asia.)
And if you do retreat the fighters when you cannot hold anymore (Turn 3) you have bought no time (usually takes America 3 or 4 rounds to get in range there anyway) and you’ve lost 16 IPC for nothing.
Furthermore, I cannot say that a carrier build has ever, in all my games, resulted in me diverting a single unit from Africa. Dunno about you guys, but I have about a 2.141:1 win loss ratio. I don’t play at DAAK anymore, the last game I actually played there was when the only game out was Classic (though some players like to use my ID there for their games.)
I actually welcome Germany trading Norway. That’s going to cost Germany at least 2 Infantry a round + the loss of use of at least one fighter, maybe two to retake it. That’s significantly less firepower they can use for other attacks, like against Russia. So now you are attacking Norway, W. Europe, Egypt, Ukraine, Belorussia and Karelia each round. That’s spreading your firepower awefully slim and encouraging a phenomenon known as Cascade Dice Failure.
Also, the goal is Berlin, not SZ 5. Therefore, it is perfectly possible for the allies to dominate without sinking the SZ 5 fleet. It’s actaully a matter of game records at some of the gaming sites that the SZ 5 fleet, even without a carrier build, sometimes survives when Germany dies.
The only thing the carrier does is give Germany the option of using the SZ 5 fleet offensively against the Allied fleet longer than normal. Honestly, I’ve yet to see Germany make that attack since they will have to over come at least two Allied Battleships and are bringing none of their own.
So what does the Carrier bring you?
1) A chance to stretch your forces beyond their capabilities
2) A chance to squander your resources
3) A chance to experience Cascade Dice Failure
4) A chance to look in wonder at the Marineskrieg as it floats in the harbor of a capitol owned by Russia, England or America
5) The off chance your opponent loses his mind and spends way too much on fleet to counter your carrier. (Which is stupid when you think about it. 2 Carriers, 4 Fighters, 2 Battleships, 8-10 Transports, 2 Submarines and 2 Destroyers are plenty and that’s usualy what the Allies have between the three of them anyway. Germany will never win with 2 submarines, transport, destroyer, carrier, 5 fighters and a bomber, thus they will never try.)
6) A chance to waste 16 IPCs and keep it locked up forever in SZ 5.