What is a balanced Revised Bid?

@Zero:

My ftf gaming group doesn’t use bids so I’m used to whatever advantage/disadvantage that brings to the table for the respective sides. I’m not used to a bid though. The other day I played a pick-up 4 player game online where the axis had like an 8 bid. I was Russia and sure wasn’t used to that automatic 2nd transport in the Med. round 1.

Well from my perspective I think the perfect bid is Axis 3. Just to add another dude in Libya and only that because if Anglo-Egypt round 1 goes sour for Germany the rest of the game is an uphill struggle for the Axis. Nobody wants to play a game that’s largely decided by round 2. In fact, just add the dude to the initial setup and do away with bidding altogether. ~ZP

Very well put. I do like that thought of extra dude in Libya. Just to even out the odds on that first roll a bit indeed.
But for the rest, I defi see the challenge with the Axis as they are.
In round 1 both Japan and Germany seem to be in the better position then the Allies, and it’s then where you have to make the most out of it.

Speaking of an extra “dude” for Germany.  If you put him in Ukraine you shift the odds of that battle into Germany’s favor which should result in having an extra fighter for Egypt.  That’s significantly more impact on the Egypt battle than an extra infantry in Libya.

Just my personal opinion on it.  I have not run the numbers recently, I just remember that the Infantry in Ukraine really made an attack on Ukraine a sour proposition for Russia.  Can’t remember if Russia still has odds to win or not, I think they can “win” but won’t get the land or something and have a good chance of losing one of their fighters in the conflict.

Check it out for yourselves, as I said, I did not run the numbers, I don’t plan to do so now.

http://frood.net/aacalc/?mustland=0&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&Clear=Clear+units%2FOOLs&techs=on&aInf=2&aArt=&aArm=&aFig=&aJFig=&aBom=&aHBom=&aTra=&aSub=&aSSub=&aDes=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=1&dArt=&dArm=&dFig=&dJFig=&dBom=&dHBom=&dTra=&dSub=&dSSub=&dDes=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Fig-JFig-Des-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat&ool_def=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Bom-HBom-Des-Fig-JFig-Car-dBat&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=LHTR&gameid=&password=&turnid=&territory=&round=1&pbem=

Actually having an inf in Lib makes taking Egypt more likely than having a fig to send from Ukraine if you send Germany’s bomber + 1inf/1tank from Seur to Egypt in both cases (96% vs. 92%), even though you have more of a chance to kill off everything in Egypt with the fig.  And if you’re thinking ahead to UK’s possible Egypt counter, the chances of Germany having 2 tanks or more to hold Egypt with is 87% with 1 more inf vs. 70% with 1 more fig.  Of course in the long term you can take Egypt back again on G2, and having the extra fighter is certainly a plus.

As for Ukraine, 1 extra inf makes the attack a 74% chance for Russia to take with at least 1 tank, 88% to clear with at least 1 fig, vs. the normal 89% chance to take with 1 tank+ and 96% to clear with 1fig+.  In this case, if Russia attacks and wins (still decently likely), Germany’s Egypt attack with 2inf/2arm/bom will have an 84% chance to take, but only 62% to have 2 tanks+.

@Cmdr:

What if you lost both USA’s aa guns?  :-D

@Funcioneta:

@Cmdr:

What if you lost both USA’s aa guns?  :-D

AA Guns and Industrial Complexes are not units, that’s why they are white and not a country color. :P

ICs and aa guns are units. In fact, both prevent blitz with tanks because they are units. They are white because you can capture them.

Once you break $9 in an unrestricted bid, it opens up far too many possibilities for the Axis to make quick strikes and gain an early significant lead that the Allies are hard pressed to counter.

Think about the impact of just 1 ART added to Kwang before J1 AFTER you have already added a German INF to Libya and Ukraine…

Worse still would be +3 Infantry in Ukraine I think.  Gives Germany a real shot at taking Caucasus with enough to hold it on Germany 1.

Transport in SZ 50 +1 IPC for Japan is deadly too.

Submarine in SZ 8 is kinda deadly too, forces Russia into making a move she does not normally have to make against Norway.

+3 Infantry in Belorussia guarantees that Karelia can be stacked hard enough it will never fall as well.

(6 infantry from Belorussia, 3 Infantry from E. Europe, 3 Infantry from Norway, 2 Infantry from Germany plus all the tanks that can reach on Germany 1 is going to be one helluva stack for Russia to deal with.  Nice airbase for Germany too.)

If Russia does WRu/Ukr you can stack Kar even without a European bid in most games. Even if Russia has good odds attacking it, its still a good move since Germany can afford to replace its losses whereas Russia can’t.