Japan v.s U.S.S.R



  • Imperious Leader, you brought up a topic worth discussing in the Midway v.s Guadalcanel debate. What effect would Japan have on the Eastern Front if the IJA and IJN launched an all out attack on the Soviet Union in 1941 or 1942?

    My thoughts are that the IJN would have destroyed every Soviet ship and all coastal based aircraft.

    Yet, the IJA, in a bloody land war would get destroyed. With little in the way of modern armor the IJA would have been outclasses by even obsolete Soviet tanks.

    What would the effect of this have on the German attack? Would Moscow fall without Siberian reserves in 1941?


  • 2017 2016 2015 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    The Japanese didn’t have any capabilities of doing anything more than tying down the Far Eastern Garrison on the northern Manchukou border. As soon as Zhukov recovered he would have taken the Kwangtung army to task because these were not conscripts but the best Soviet soldiers that were specialized in cold weather fighting. They were largely mechanized and had independent air elements attached. Their is not way on this green earth that Japan could have advanced farther than a few hundred miles inside this inhospitable territory w/o logistics at least as good as the American army. Japan was not capable of holding long lines and pushing deep in forest and rugged terrain. They considered that option and was already concluded it was not worth the risk of long term campaign sapping Japans limited resources, nor did it solve any short or long term solutions for Japanese resources for her war economy.

    The territory only offers one warm water port and the rest is a barrier of 5,000 miles of dense forest and hard core Soviet mechanized and well equipped infantry.

    Thats why the Axis and Allies game is so flawed, because Japanese tanks cutting thru 1 billion people of India, I billion people of China and Huge mountain ranges and tundra/forest/swamps of 5,000 miles would NEVER allow all these mystery tanks rolling on Moscow from the east.

    The only plausible point they could have gotten was a complete bypass of India and landing in Saudi Arabia/Iran heading to the oil in Persia. They could not even capture China which was one of the most backward nations. China was still binding womans/children’s feet which is medieval and STILL held up Japan from 1931-1945.

    The lack of Siberian troops around Moscow in the period Sept 1941-Dec 1941 would not have led to Germans occupying Moscow, because the mistake was already made before in August when Hitler lost the plot and diverted AGC major Panzer units to assist AGS envelopment of Kiev pocket. That loss of time allowed the Soviets to build 5 defensive earthworks protecting Moscow and Stalin only had to fill in the gaps with fodder troops. The winter would have done the rest. The only thing was he would not have the offensive power to launch that counterattack on Dec 6th 1941 and would have to sit till spring, but that was a disaster anyway.

    So to sum up the prior German mistakes could not be saved by some tricks with Japan going against Vladivostok because these were critical mistakes made in the original decision to bring victory in 1941. Germany didn’t have the means to fight wars longer than 6 months, all her previous victories were “on the cheap” and you only had to get the Germans outside their comfort zone with a war of attrition against a nation that didn’t fully mobilize for total war.



  • I totally agree with you. How much do you think the time consumed by the crushing of the Balkin countries had to play with the results of 1941?


  • 2017 2016 2015 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    It was catastrophic to the intent of the German idea of quick victory because it didn’t allow the maximum clear weather. With those 6 weeks, Moscow would have been taken, severing north and south axis of communication and supply because all the rail lines tied the Soviet logistical support were centered along Leningrad, Moscow, Stalingrad and Caucasus.

    The Soviets were running out of space to retreat once they left Moscow. Germany only had to cut the rail lines that tied Tankograd and the Ural industries to the eastern portion behind Moscow and they could not supply the front.

    But the Germans wasted a whole year from June 40-41 basically doing nothing and should have gone after the middle east and British supply flowing in the Medd by taking Malta, Suez and Gibraltar. Then used the Italian fleet to seal up the medd

    That would have made Turkey more friendly to Germany and possibly allowed Germans to pass into black sea. Turkey could have been bought off to fight the Soviets because they are old enemies because the Russians supported the Armenians to raise up against the Ottomans and fight the turks and Turkey never forgot that.

    With Turkey in the bag, pressure could have been exerted against Persia and cut the lend lease route. All this was possible in that ‘lost’ year.

    The Germans basically had enough to win the war in 1941, but mismanaged the campaign and the timetable.



  • Yes, IL I am with you.

    In fact I thought that the Hitler error, in 1941, was to not going seriously against the English in the Med.

    German only sent enough units (land and air) to Med to avoid Italian defeat, due to Italian lack of preparation for war. Mussolini will of conducting a “parallel war” to German led to Italy attack against Greece that was stopped by Greeks on the mountainous boundary with Albania. Italy then was forced to supply two fronts (Greece and Lybia) while her industry could barely support one. German intervention in Mediterranean in first half of 41 lead to bombing of Malta, that became less effective in attacking italian convoy to Lybia. Also German Uboote and Stukas inflicted several losses to Mediterranean Fleet. In June, after the fall of Crete, Mediterranean Fleet was at its minimal strength: 1 BB, 3 CL and 17 DD. A lot of British warships were sank(6 DD, 3 CL)  or badly damaged (2 BB, 1 AC). 2000 expert seamen were lost. If Hitler had decided to attack hard in Mediterranean. Cunningham wrote to Churchill that British in Med were on the verge of defeat, the only time that Commander of Mediterranean Fleet was depressed… but… the worst had already gone. In fact Hitler, pressed by the incoming starting date of the Barbarossa operation, leaved the Med scenario to italians with minimal supporting German forces , retreating the aircrafts from Italy for use in Russia. Germany lost the only real possibility to knock down the UK, invading Egypt and advancing in Middle East.
    Rommel having only 2 Panzer divisions and 1 italian armoured division had pushed back UK to Egypt in June 1941. Having at disposal at least other 2 Panzer divisions Rommel had reached Suez, at least.


  • 2017 2016 2015 Organizer '14 Customizer '13 '12 '11 '10

    If they spent the wasted year consolidating the Medd., Rommel could be transfered to the Russian front and would have found a way to bring victory in 1941. Just dump Von Leeb and Bock and keep Rommel and Manstein thats all they needed to finish off the Russians.

    The Italians were good soldiers but were not ready for war until 1943 and were under the assumption that Hitler was not going to start a general war before that time. Probably it would be best to have stayed out of war until that time and let Germany carry the ball, but Mussolini said “he needed 10,000 deaths to gain a seat at the peace table” and that hubris proved his undoing. That was the problem all whole time because Il duce was jealous of Hitlers success and wanted a piece of it when his nation was not ready for war.

    Franco was more pragmatic and thoughtful waiting till it was clear that Germany was gonna win the war, before committing to her. And the Spanish under Franco saved fascism from extinction till 1977.



  • I think the only reason the U.S.S.R. would have fallen as a result of Japan was if they grossly over reacted because they felt they were being boxed in and sent a mass of troops to the East.

    This possibly could have allowed Germany the break they needed to roll into Moscow assuming they planned for the harsh winter months and Blitzed hard in the spring.

    IMHO,
    LT



  • @Imperious:

    If they spent the wasted year consolidating the Medd., Rommel could be transfered to the Russian front and would have found a way to bring victory in 1941. Just dump Von Leeb and Bock and keep Rommel and Manstein thats all they needed to finish off the Russians.

    The Italians were good soldiers but were not ready for war until 1943 and were under the assumption that Hitler was not going to start a general war before that time. Probably it would be best to have stayed out of war until that time and let Germany carry the ball, but Mussolini said “he needed 10,000 deaths to gain a seat at the peace table” and that hubris proved his undoing. That was the problem all whole time because Il duce was jealous of Hitlers success and wanted a piece of it when his nation was not ready for war.

    Franco was more pragmatic and thoughtful waiting till it was clear that Germany was gonna win the war, before committing to her. And the Spanish under Franco saved fascism from extinction till 1977.

    Agree IL. Mussolini entered war in the convinction that it was finishing and want to partecipate as a winner to the peace treaty to receive what Italy did not received at the end of First World War, when Italy was expelled from the sharing of the ex-German Colony, that was grabbed by French and UK. The idea of the “Vittoria Mutilata” (Mutilated Victory) was one of the propaganda theme used by Mussolini when he took power.
    I do not want to be pedant but exactly Mussolini said that he need “some thousand deaths to seat at the peace table next to the winners”.
    His intention were clear. Mussolini was erroneously convinced that the fall of the French Army, the one that stopped the German Army in WWI, was the signal that the Germany has won the war. He did not believe that UK alone and only with its Fleet could have countered Germany. Moreover, he declared to Grandi (another fascist hierarch) that he did not believe that USA have transformed their peace industry in a war machine, making another great evaluation error.
    Mussolini entered the war convoinced that war is finishing. For this reason Italy was completely unprepared. Lybia was not strengthened before the war start. Malta was not conquered on the first day of the war, as it should have been. Italian mercantile ships were leaved in foreign ports and not recalled, and were interned. Marina, Esercito and Aereonautica were higly under organic, without supply piled, without operational plan etc. Italian soldiers fought well (alpini in Russia, Ariete at Tobruk, Folgore at El Alamein, Italian seamen in the daily convoy escorts to Lybia, Frogmen in the port of Alexandria) but they were always in disadvantage, quantitatively and qualitatively.
    Mussolini entered the war to receive something from Hitler, the winner according to the Duce, for avoiding that Italy will suffocate in an Europe completely under the German domain.



  • Great discussion!



  • Yeah, I learned a lot of the detailed technical aspects I hadn’t thought of.

    LT



  • Tanks LT04 and ABWorsham4, I always try to disseminate the things I read about Italian participation to WWII.

    I only hope of being enough “clear” when I write in English… Italian are not famous for their english knowledge! 🙂



  • My soon to be brother-in-law speaks Spanish I do a lot of translating from english to english.  Trust me your english is a lot better.

    LT



  • With German supply lines as long and undependable due to the state of the Russian road system, I beleive in unlikly that Germany could have taken Moscow in 1941. If the U.S.S.R had a road system like western countries Germany may have won in 1941.



  • So having a disastrous and underdeveloped road system helped in saving Russia.

    Mmm…

    Even if it was as you said it should be still a German lack o planification or undervauling of the Russia.

    Furthermore I want to make another point. Germans were happy that Japanese was signing a non aggression pact with USSR. They were convinced that Wehrmach may won the war against Russia alone without any help. So they agreed at the pact convinced that in such way all of the Russia resources will be only for Germany.



  • What is the purpose of the stars under a member’s profile name?



  • ABW,

    The stars corispond to the A&A unit above them.  Every one starts out as an INF unit on this site.  Then after so many posts they move up to ART and a second star is added then ARM so on and so on.

    LT



  • Thank you LT04, now I have one more question. What is the purpose of the Karma stat on my profile? Bear with me I’m a rookie to this site.



  • ABW,

    When you look at my Karma section below it says Applaud and smite.  So if I said something you like, agreed with or what ever that you found possitive you would press the applaud button and my + Karma would go up 1.  If I pissed you off you could press the smite button and my - Karma would go up one.

    They are all anonymous so you never know who to thank or who to smite.

    LT


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