Well i consider the Ukraine attack vital to a Russian opening. Im not going to say “must attack”, but its close. The reasons for this are already known by you, as it aggravates you to the point of writing this article!!! Killing that tank and plane cant be passed up. However, why must you bring 3 tanks to caucus? If ll definitely 2 tanks, in dice, it depends on how i feel. If i know I am palying an aggressive germany, i certainly bring 2. With an attack of 3inf, 1art, 2arm, 2fgt vs 3inf, 1arm, 1fgt. Russia is most likely to take ukr with two tanks remaining, 89% to take in general, and 95% to kill that nasty german plane.
But alright, lets go with your assumption i brought three tanks to ukr. most likely result is three tanks, and 1 art, as calced by the frood calculator. By your own post, and verified by starting units chart, you can only bring 7 inf to a ukraine counter. That counter is 7inf, 5arm, 1fgt. (i gave you much more than you gave yourself. your post has 8inf which isnt possible, and 4 tanks, no AF). The most likely result is 2 inf lost in retaking ukr. so u now have 5inf and 5arm stacked in ukr. Russia likely lost 2 inf in taking w. russia. they have 7inf, 1art, 1arm. Caucus has 2 inf from Kazah, and 3inf, 1 art built, leaving Causus with 5inf, 1 art. My russian round 1 build: 5inf, 1 art, 1arm. This leaves 6inf, 1 arm in moscow.
My counter can be 12inf, 2art, 2arm, 2fgt. But i prob leave the tanks home to save them from your Tigers. R2, you are left with 3inf, 2 art left in ukr. Since you moved your inf to w. europe, you now have to counter ukr with only 1inf (italy–>balkans–>ukr) and 10 tanks. Keep in mind u havent used any other units for swapping belorussia and karelia, and those territories are now red, also leaving EE open for 1 lonely inf to claim. But given this, lets assume u can bring the full af into ukr. 5fgt 1 bomber. U have claimed ukr with 9 tanks remaining. My russian round 2 build was 8inf 1 tank. I can hit ukr round 3 with. 6inf from w. russia (moved from moscow on round 2), 2 tanks (saved). 4 inf Caucus, (placed on round2). 1 tank from moscow. 2 fgts. The average result is taht i kill ur 9 tanks for my 8 inf, leaving 2inf, and 3 arm. A +21 ipc exchange for me. I can also choose to just strafe, and save my 3 arm from slaughter.
But as u can see, u arent taking caucus round 3. And I have laid waste to a total of 15 german tanks in this scenario. meanwhile, germany is now stretched too thin, and have a whopping total of 5 inf in europe!!! So lets add the allied pressure now. UK stacks in Karelia, and USA takes africa, threatening the belly of europe. Germany is the one that losses for its over aggressiveness in this scenario. Leading to a quick German demise. If you play TripleA, we can test this theory if u wish?